tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2118326462295722742024-03-12T23:21:47.031-04:00Clean, Clear, CalmMusings on Wall Street, Miami, and Life...Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.comBlogger212125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-59939684961722587072020-09-21T19:55:00.008-04:002020-10-02T18:26:03.927-04:00Selected Meaningful Quotes, Must Reads, Must Sees & Practical Rules for Living<div><span class="Apple-style-span" face="'Trebuchet MS',sans-serif"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3aLKZmGr7y4/X2n55ba0x5I/AAAAAAAAByA/c-E4XmetWb0tIYdMlZaGiEid_ryN-88fQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1614/LifeLessons.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1118" data-original-width="1614" height="445" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3aLKZmGr7y4/X2n55ba0x5I/AAAAAAAAByA/c-E4XmetWb0tIYdMlZaGiEid_ryN-88fQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h445/LifeLessons.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><b>July 2012: For Baelyn...before I forget. </b></span></span></span><div><div><i><span style="font-size: medium;">[Updated September 2020: And of course...for Bardeaux too!]</span></i><div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Lately the 80s movie classic <i>Teen Wolf</i> (one day you will recognize its genius) has been airing on cable, and I keep stumbling on the scene where slacker basketball coach Bobby Finstock pulls his star player Scott Howard aside for a word or two of advice. Finstock tells him, </span></span></div><div><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">"There are <b>three rules</b> that I live by:</span></span> </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">never get less than twelve hours
sleep;</span></span> </i></div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a
city;</span></span> </i></div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">and <i>never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on
her body.</i></span></span> </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese."</span></span></div></blockquote><div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I <span style="font-size: small;">think it's</span> incredibly cool to have this kind of a list on demand and at your fingertips, and the ecclectic nature of his rules is just...well...awesome. </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">So, Baelyn [<i>updated: & Bardeaux</i>] - probably since I just turned 40 [<i>updated: almost 49!</i>] and feel reflective, definitely because I want to be a good Dad, and <u>absolutely</u> because I want to be as cool as Bobby Finstock - I decided to make you a list of my own. </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Of course, my wisdom at this point is not nearly as developed as Finstock's, so I reserve the right to update my list until such time as it feels appropriately w<i>ise</i>, or s<i>age</i>, or simply c<i>omplete</i> (perhaps when I can narrow it to only three?) </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Also, my rules are clearly not as colorful as his...but then again, unless you move to Vegas at some stage in your life, mine will probably have more practical value. </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Regardless, this was a valuable exercise for me, and I hope one day you can appreciate it too.</span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">In random order...</span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Selected Meaningful Quotes, Must Reads, Must Sees, and Practical Rules for Living. </span></b></span></span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><b>Pursue a well-rounded education. </b> In my view, there is no better way, at least in terms of human connection and purpose and meaning. (Although I grant you that for specific tasks like - for example - building the Golden Gate Bridge, an education more narrowly focused on engineering is probably more appropriate.) But for me, an important measure of success in the human/social connection sense may be the ability to speak to any person, anywhere, and find some common ground: food, travel, literature, art, history, science, music... <br /><br /><b>Resist the temptation to "sell out" (career-wise) for as long as you possibly can</b>. But chances are, you won’t be able to resist forever. That's ok: money, after all, buys time. (And nothing is more valuable than the time to do what you want.) But while you are able, there is also something to be said for the theory of "pursue what you love, and the money will follow." There is no guarantee, but it just might. <br /><br /><b>Stand up for yourself</b>: Don’t take crap from anyone, and it’s ok to recognize that sometimes bad people have it coming to them if they push too far. But also be as kind and as generous as you can; and especially to taxi drivers, janitors, waiters/waitresses, and the like. Don't assume that you were born to be served by others. Appreciate their efforts and their honest day's work. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><b>When given a choice between <i>watching</i> a game and <i>playing</i> a game, <u>always play</u>. </b></span></div><div><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><b>Participate in sport of any kind</b>. (Unless, of course, it involves killing something. Please skip those.) The friendship, loyalty, rivalry and camaraderie earned; the discipline, sacrifice and effort learned; the challenges and pressures overcome; and the intensity and passion enjoyed are all <i>incredibly </i>valuable by-products of the sports experience. </span>Also consider that for me, sport has been the great connector in my life. The lessons of the locker room extend beyond race, religion, and creed...and the construct of team and family come to the fore. I have often said that anyone who has shed blood, sweat, or tears alongside me on a court or in a locker room is my brother....and always will be. Sacred bonds. [<i>Updated: and now more than ever in the current 2020 landscape of George Floyd, Jacob Blake and others...when protests against racism and police brutality are occurring across our nation. Sport has the power to transcend, and against today's "de-humanizing" backdrop of racial injustice, I believe that my past, present, and <u>future</u> teammates should know how much I value them as friends, people, and...</i><span style="font-style: italic;">human beings!</span>]</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">Lets also spent some time on my favorite sport, <b>basketball.</b> It is not lost on me that there is much, much more to life than basketball. Yet <b>I have also experienced it as something much larger </b>and much broader than "just a game:" for me, it has been a vehicle through which to cross (or at least navigate) barriers of religion, ethnicity, class, or culture. When I played in Ireland, I was part of a program that levered the "neutral" sport of basketball to bring Catholics and Protestants together. Throughout my career, locker rooms consisted of mixed races and mixed socio-economic statuses at rates probably higher than most classrooms or organizations. And while travelling around the world post-9/11, I was warmly treated as a "local" rather than a tourist using pick-up basketball as an ice-breaker in countries like Seychelles, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Australia, New Zealand, Palau, Burma, Thailand, and Laos. Basketball has taught me lessons which I carry with me to this day as an employee, a father, a husband, a coach, and a human being. It helped me establish friendships throughout my life that I might not otherwise have made. It helped me connect -- to myself, to those near, to those similar, to those different, to those across distant oceans or continents that I never would have met were it not for a ball and a hoop. So yes, to paraphrase Phil Jackson, "<i>there is more to life than just basketball...but there's also more to basketball than just basketball.</i>" </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><br /></span><span face="Verdana,sans-serif">Study Sun Tzu and understand that <i>the battle is won or lost before it is ever fought</i>. <b>There is no substitution for preparation. </b> Also consider Muhammad Ali’s colorful spin on it: <i>The fight is won or lost far away from witnesses - behind the lines, in the gym, and out there on the road, long before I dance under those lights.</i> </span>Extending further into Sun Tzu's argument, I would also offer that winning <i>is </i>great, but it’s nothing compared to the absolute calm – yet strangely euphoric – feeling of knowing you will win before it happens; of saying to yourself “I got this” or “this is my moment” or “this race/game/match/point is already won.” Of course, to ever feel that way – especially under the intense pressure of the moment and before the victory is actually secured – you will have to have done hours and hours of work to “earn” that confidence and certainty. But it’s worth it. <b>There is no better feeling than “I have already won this, this is my time…and no one here but me knows it yet.”</b> Yes, in my opinion, that feeling is better than actually winning. And it’s certainly more rare. </div><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Embrace the concept of evolution</b>, both in the massive biological sense but also in the small-scale genetic sense: actively take the best traits of
family and friends and push them forward in your own character. Ignore the
worst traits, and <span style="font-size: small;">push them </span>the way of the <span style="color: cyan;"><a href="http://www.internationaldovesociety.com/MiscPics/BluePigeons/Dodo.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span">Dodo
bird</span></a></span>, <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsNaR6FRuO0"><span class="Apple-style-span">dial-up internet
service</span></a></span>, <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-leUHc8-P65w/T1dlhPCARjI/AAAAAAAAA70/1gEt6JIFu28/s1600/Dan+Marino+Zubaz.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span">Zubaz</span></a></span>,
and the <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://blog.iwantoneofthose.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/betamax.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span">Betamax</span></a></span>. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">When you think about “little white lies” or if you find yourself in a moral dilemma at some stage in your life, <b>consider the words of Oscar Wilde: <i>a true friend stabs you in the front</i>. </b> </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Be
wary of the “grass is always greener” trap. It’s tempting. But
instead, develop the understanding that <b><i>happiness is not about getting what
you want…it’s about <u>still</u> wanting what you already have</i>.</b> </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Stay
away from debt.</b> Prior generations earned first, and then spent.
Respect that. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Similarly,
<b>resist things that come too easily.</b> It’s often a trap. Eventually
you will take pride and perhaps even pleasure in overcoming the struggles and challenges you face. The pay off for working hard at something is considerable. Enjoying something you’ve actually <i>earned</i> for yourself is far, far different from enjoying something that comes easily. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">If
I gave you the choice to <i>lead, follow, or get out of the way</i>, which
would you choose? <b>My hope would be for you to lead</b>...and if you were to do so, lead first by example. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">As a corollary, don't trust people who say "do as I say, not as I do." <b>Actions,
not words, are the true measure of character. </b> As such, those who <i>do</i> have the courage to follow their own
convictions are often worth your respect and your time. </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Words should count for something, however, so choose them wisely. Also, don't be passive aggressive: <b>have the courage to plainly speak your mind</b>.</span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">When faced with a challenge, borrow from an unofficial saying of the United
States Marines: <i> <b>Improvise, Adapt, and Overcome</b></i><b>.</b></span></span></div>
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</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">When examining an issue, or a popular stance on a topic, try as much as possible to <b>apply common sense in addition to objective, historical fact</b>. This is more important than ever in today's "cancel culture" paradigm, when anything tainted with a tinge of inappropriateness (of course, which is only viewed in today's lens by the "cancellers") is called out and subsequently destroyed. Sure, this applies to statues of Confederate Generals, who fought - in part - to maintain the institution of slavery...but do we also stop listening to Michael Jackson because of (alleged) sexual misdeeds? I am not seeking at all to discount the evils - and accountability to - supporting slavery, but do we also discard everything positive that Washington, Jefferson, or Hamilton achieved for this country, as products of their era because they were also "slaveowner, slaveowner, adulterer?" Does Churchill get stricken from the record because he was most likely an alcoholic? I believe all great men are deeply flawed in other areas of their lives - call this the "Michael Jordan Effect" - and are also generally products of their time. Moreover, our nation itself is deeply flawed and is built on the back of cultural exploitation of both Native- and African-Americans. We're imperfect...so let's do better. But also...let's not too rapidly ignore, deny, or "cancel" anything that doesn't fit our modern construct. After all...if we know one thing for sure, it's that our "modern" view will change again, and probably look pretty silly in a few hundred years. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Right on cue, consider this throw-away line from the movie <i>Men in Black</i> and see it for something profound and insightful: <i>Fifteen hundred years ago everybody <u>knew</u> the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody <u>knew</u> the Earth was flat…Imagine what you'll know tomorrow.</i> Remember, perspective is everything. <b>And it's also important - in fact, required - to constantly question the "concrete assumptions" everywhere around you.</b></span></span><br /><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">In fact, John F. Kennedy made note of a similar concept in a speech at Amherst College - his last public appearance before his assassination, actually - in October 1963: "<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;"><i>The men who create power make an indispensable contribution to the Nation’s greatness, <b>but the men who question power make a contribution just as indispensable</b>, especially when that questioning is disinterested, for they determine whether we use power or power uses us.</i>"</span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">And here’s another solid tidbit from <i>Men in Black</i> (who knew?): <i>A<b> person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals.</b> </i> (Now go back and re-read <i>Cat’s Cradle</i> and consider that religion may be the greatest hoax ever propagated on the human race.) </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Realize that being a contrarian is harder said than done, and it’s often falsely – and hypocritically – romanticized. Not to say one shouldn’t aspire to contrarianism…but it’s just that far too many people claim – with the obvious benefit of hindsight – that they would have been honorably struggling on the front lines of progress and change than is actually plausible. For example: It’s more than likely that if you were alive at the time, you would have been a slave-owner too. Or at least sympathetic to the concept. The same holds true for women’s rights, Native American rights, and a myriad other examples<span style="font-size: small;">.</span> Have the integrity to admit that, and thus to more deeply appreciate <i>true</i> anti-consensus thought or action as it happened. Although it is often worth it to “go against the grain,” it is also incredibly difficult and rare in practice. <b>Said another way, be as <i>self-aware</i> as possible, and don't succumb to the disingenuous temptation to pretend to be some<span style="font-size: small;">one</span> you are not, or someone you would never have been. </b></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span></span><br /><br /><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">As a natural follow-up to the previous thought...</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b>Resist the temptation to do what everyone else is doing. Taking a moment to stop and think is <i>always</i> worth it. </b></span></span><br /></div></span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Waste <i>some</i> amount of time making sure people like you, but not too much. At some point, it becomes a bit unctuous. And, also at some point, maturity means accepting the fact that you can't be all things to all people. <b>It's ok if not everyone loves you. </b></span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Similarly, check out the cheesy movie <i>The Last Dragon</i>. (Or at least the first 60 seconds below.) <b>Don't always seek positive reinforcement from externalities.</b> Or at least don't depend on it to the exclusion of all other input. And sometimes, especially if you have "done the work," recognize that you may already be "the Master." (Also read my <a href="http://cleanclearcalm.blogspot.com/2010/08/glory-days-self-analysis-and-early.html" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #6fa8dc;">blog about Canisius High School basketball and Coach Dave Butler</span></a> for a more relevant example of this.) </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Speaking of mastery, <b>read<span style="color: cyan;"> <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Musashi-Eiji-Yoshikawa/dp/4770019572" target="_blank">Musashi</a></i></span>,</b> the epic biography of one of Japan's most famous swordsmen. It has it all...struggle, hardship, success, failure, love, passion, discipline, agony, honor, and loyalty. Musashi said many great things, but here's something that stands out: </span><span style="font-size: small;"><i>This is the Way for men who want to learn my strategy... Do not think dishonestly. The Way is in training. Become acquainted with every art. Know the Ways of all professions. Distinguish between gain and loss in worldly matters. Develop intuitive judgment and understanding for everything. Perceive those things which cannot be seen. Pay attention even to trifles. Do nothing which is of no use.</i><span class="Apple-style-span"> Another of my favorites relates to training and preparation, which is obviously a theme here: <i><b>Learn the principles, master the principles, forget the principles</b>.</i> It's a great feeling to have learned something so well - whether algebra, a vocational skill, a sport, etc. - that it becomes easy and mindless. Once you hit that point (also see Malcom Gladwell's book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Outliers-Story-Success-Malcolm-Gladwell/dp/0316017922" target="_blank"><i>Outliers</i></a>), success generally follows. </span></span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">But when
you are good at something, <b>resist the temptation to show off or boast.</b> As Bruce Lee noted in <i>Enter the Dragon </i>(see first 25 seconds below): “<i>Boards don't hit back.”</i>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Know
when to call it a night: recognize that
<b>nothing good happens after 1:00am</b>... unless you are with family, sitting in
your own backyard, in your dorm room, or just finishing up dinner in Italy,
Spain, or France (and within walking distance of your bed). And as a tangent, <i>terrible</i> things happen on roads after 1:00am...so be careful, <i>please</i>.<br />
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Similarly, <b>get at least 8 hours sleep </b>as often as possible…but don't waste too many
mornings by sleeping in. <br />
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Of course, also don't forget that th<b>e early bird <i>does </i>sometimes get the worm, but it's the <i>second</i> mouse that gets the cheese.
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Whenever you are on the fence of whether or not to roll out of bed for that <b>morning workout,</b> <i>always go for it</i>.
You will never regret the post-workout satisfaction and endorphin high. Go!</span></span><br />
<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Watch
<i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Wire-Complete-Series/dp/B001FA1P1W" target="_blank">The Wire</a></i>.</b> Like, immediately. You will dig Seasons 1 <span style="font-size: small;">and </span>2 but make sure you stick with it through some dry patches...because they are merely a set-up and a preface to the greatness that is Season 3. It’s only
the best television show ever created and a seminal work on the slow crumbling
of the American Empire from the inside (urban centers) out. And Season 3 is the pinnacle of the accomplishment. Face it, we almost named you Bodie. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Watch
the entire <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Band-Brothers-Damian-Lewis/dp/B00006CXSS/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1341622691&sr=8-1&keywords=band+of+brothers" target="_blank">Band of Brothers</a></i> epic</b>. Recognize the bravery and
sacrifice of those honorable men who fought to purge the world of evil, back when the difference
between <i>good</i> and <i>bad</i> were fairly obvious. (Of course, since my "family rule" is that we enjoy a <i>Band of Brothers</i> marathon on Thanksgiving - in order to truly "give thanks" and understand - then you'll probably have this covered already.) </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Yet
also <b>read David Hackworth’s <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/About-Face-Odyssey-American-Warrior/dp/0671695347/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1341622791&sr=8-4&keywords=about+face" target="_blank">About Face</a></i> </b>and understand the dangers of misguided,
political wars. Be true to yourself, despite the consequences…never be a
“yes man.” At the same time, recognize the honor in loyalty while perhaps
at the same time not understanding it: Hackworth
took one painful path regarding Vietnam, while John McCain took another equally
painful – while perhaps completely opposite – track. But both men were heroes.
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">In fact, if you are curious, I would probably list my <b>favorite TV shows</b> in this order:</span></span> </div></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">1) <i>The Wire*</i></span></span></div></div><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">2) <i>Band of Brothers*</i> (mini-series)</span></span></div></div><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">3) <i>Breaking Bad*</i></span></span></div></div><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">4) <i>House of Cards</i> (except the last season)</span></span></div></div><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">5) <i>Game of Thrones*</i></span></span></div></div><div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">6) <i>The Deuce*</i></span></span></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p><span style="font-size: x-small;"> *interesting that my favorites correlate with an interesting construct: the TV show that knows it's full story, it's beginning and end, before it's even filmed. For example, David Simon always said The Wire was a "book with 60 chapters...12 shows x 5 seasons." That limited arc tends to create a tight storyline and avoids the obvious pitfalls (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4ZGKI8vpcg" target="_blank">Fonzie jumping the shark</a>) of TV shows that get more and more ridiculous just to maintain viewership, banking on the dramatic and the absurd rather than a tight storyline. </span></p></blockquote><p>Of course, I could make an entirely separate list for the 80's and the excitement of TV as a kid, even with only 4 channels! But I'd have to highlight <i>The Greatest American Hero, Buck Rogers, The Six Million Dollar Man, Dukes of Hazzard, Magnum PI</i>, and Saturday morning <i>WWF</i> as my favorites then. Along with <i>Three Stooges</i> reruns and vintage <i>Bugs Bunny</i>... </p></span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b>Read <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Cats-Cradle-Novel-Kurt-Vonnegut/dp/038533348X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1341622630&sr=8-1&keywords=cat%27s+cradle" target="_blank">Cat’s Cradle</a></i>.</b> Recognize the absolute genius of Kurt Vonnegut. Be wary of organized religion; yes, it may have had a place once in "civilizing" barbarians and giving our <span style="font-size: small;">forebears</span> a "higher purpose" than constantly raping <span style="font-size: small;">and </span>pillaging their neighbors, but that time has past and the entire construct currently borders - in my opinion - on the ridiculous. And, unfortunately, the destructive. Vonnegut makes his case more elegantly than anyone ever has. Across the body of his work, his ability to satire the foibles of humanity make him required reading for anyone truly seeking to be "self-aware." </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Study
Colonel Glover S. John’s <i><a href="http://www.hackworth.com/gloverjohns.html" target="_blank">Basic Philosophy of Soldiering</a></i>. </b> There are
valuable leadership tips within, including several of my favorites: <i>Strive
to do small things well…Never be satisfied; ask of any project, how can it be
done better?...The harder the training, the more the troops will brag…Yelling
detracts from your dignity; take men aside to counsel them…</i>and<i> Stay ahead of
your boss. </i></span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Understand
that “<i>champions are made when no one else is watching</i>.”</b> There <u>is</u> a
right way to do things; and do them right simply because you want to extend
the concept of “right” into the universe. If the Buddhists maintain that
you can find spirituality and divinity in the concept of repetitive menial
tasks (“<i>chop wood, carry water</i>”) then
you can make the effort to use your turn signal even though no one is around…you
can touch the lines when you run sprints…you can wash the extra spoon, lift the
chair when you vacuum, properly footnote the research paper, etc. <b>Do things
<i>right</i>. Be that person; just
because you can.</b> And while I have my
issues with the Jesuits over their dogmatic religious teachings, there is value
in the concept of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magis" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #6fa8dc;"><i>magis</i></span></a>. (Loosely
translated as "do more”…just drop the "for Christ" part.) </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out John Wooden's <span style="color: cyan;"><i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Wooden-Lifetime-Observations-Reflections-Court/dp/0809230410" target="_blank">Wooden: A Lifetime of Observations and Reflections On and Off the Court</a></i></span>. </b>
The former UCLA coach and legend positively impacted millions of lives -
both directly and indirectly - as a teacher of the game of
basketball...and life. One of my favorite quotes from Wooden (and he
has many) is "<i>never mistake activity for achievement.</i>" Even
though he used this while coaching UCLA to multiple NCAA titles in the
60s, it holds up incredibly well, especially in today's frenetic,
quantity-over-quality, shallow, information-overload world. Just as
blindly running around a basketball court at a rapid pace (activity)
hardly qualifies as achievement (execution, scoring...or winning),
hyperactive media coverage or rehashed Hollywood movies (which seem to
get dumber and dumber) or frantic on-line blog posts or reviews create
the <i>illusion of activity</i>, but hardly count as <i>achievement</i>.
This reminds me of the physics concept of velocity, which - in my mind -
is much more powerful that pure speed, simply because velocity is speed
<i>in a particular direction</i>, implying it is directed and focused
toward a particular goal. Incidentally, Wooden was
also a major proponent of the "yelling detracts from your dignity: take
men aside to counsel them" sentiment of Colonel Johns above. He never
berated players in front of others, but instead took them aside to <i>explain</i> what they might have done wrong and what they needed to do to correct the mistake and thus improve. </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Read
David Foster Wallace’s <i><a href="http://moreintelligentlife.com/story/david-foster-wallace-in-his-own-words" target="_blank">This is Water</a></i>. </b>
Recognize his brilliance and his honesty. See and understand the
"water" all around you, and learn how to navigate it. In
particular, try to see yourself as something <i>other</i> than the center of the
universe. Make the effort to include someone else's perspective in your
world view. Said another way, <i>seek first to understand, before you
would be understood</i>. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Laugh
your way through the movie <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Princess-Bride-Cary-Elwes/dp/B00003CXC3" target="_blank">The Princess Bride</a></i></b>, but also take away valuable
lessons: the strength of true love, the code of honor, the power of
loyalty, preparation, and well-roundedness. And remember Wesley’s
line: <i>We are men of action, lies do not become us</i>. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">In fact, <b>do not
lie, cheat, or steal. Be better than that. </b> But do it because you
can, not because someone tells you that you have to. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>See
<i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Cinema-Paradiso-Philippe-Noiret/dp/6305648522/ref=sr_1_5?s=movies-tv&ie=UTF8&qid=1341622986&sr=1-5&keywords=cinema+paradiso" target="_blank">Cinema Paradiso</a></i> </b>and commiserate with the sadness of leaving the known
and the comfortable for the unknown and the difficult. The pain is
enduring, yes, but the payoff is huge. </span></span><br />
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Similarly, pay homage to the Mark
Twain quote <b><i>Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness,
and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome,
charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one
little corner of the earth all one's lifetime</i>. </b> I will be sad to see
you go one day, but I will also rejoice in your pursuit of life’s
opportunities. Life is in the living. Be a doer, not a
watcher. Go and be…don’t stay and wish. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">As
a corollary to the above, remember that<b> <i>the only thing permanent in life is
change.</i></b> Keep yourself off balance, revel in the adjustments, and recognize
that it makes you wiser, stronger, and better. </span></span></div>
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<span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Another great quote, this time courtesy of Albert Einstein: <b><i>insanity is involved as doing the same thing over and over again yet expecting a different result</i>. </b></span></span><br />
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<div><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Seek to constantly change and improve the world around you, starting with the things at your fingertips and moving outwards. <b>The most dangerous combination of words in the English language might be<i> ...because that's the way it's always been done</i>. </b></span></span></div><div><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div><span face="Verdana,sans-serif"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Finally...no matter what your path in life: be firm, be strong, be proud, and don't be distracted by others, by nonsense, or by short-term thinking. Consider the <b>Greek philosophy of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euthymia_(philosophy)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Euthymia</a>,</b> as defined by Seneca: “believing in yourself and trusting that you are on the right path, and not being in doubt by following the myriad footpaths of those wandering in every direction." (It's worth reading up on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoicism" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stoics</a>, too.) But in other words, trust that your path is true...and is the best path for you to be on. Don't suffer fools or distraction. Besides, it's also important to remember that <b>"there's only one thing in life...and this is it." </b></span></span></div>
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</div></div></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-4270973058946891902019-06-04T17:35:00.003-04:002019-06-04T17:39:07.000-04:00The 1996-1997 Season: Three countries, three teams, and 22,544 miles flown... <i><br /></i>
<i>This one's for my girls...and may prove relevant as we plan to visit Malta in October 2019!</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>To properly tell this story, I need to begin with a step back to 1995-96 for some important background.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i><br /></i>
<b>INTRODUCTION</b><br />
<br />
As the first in-depth story I have taken on regarding my European basketball experience, I should disclose an important fact from the outset: My overseas experience should in no way be confused with that of current- and ex-NBA'ers who enjoy salaries in the millions playing in Greece, Spain, France, Israel, et. al. Mine was probably something closer to Triple-A baseball (actually...Double-A) in this country. Or the professional lacrosse league. In other words: I played in the mid- to low-level European leagues, and not the top-flight leagues producing many of today's foreign NBA players.<br />
<br />
So the leagues stunk, yes. But it was also probably about the best I could do. I set out not to become famous, nor to make lots of money...but to hopefully succeed in the attempt to push my own boundaries and to maximize my own potential. To<i> live life</i>. In my view, this is the promise of Sport: <i>To achieve the absolute maximum result that one can, given one's opportunity-set and one's talent.</i><br />
<br />
Despite the lack of big-name talent, bright lights or big arenas during my basketball experience, I should also note that I am proud to have even received a paycheck at all. I feel strongly that receiving pay - however small - does correlate my mid-level experience in some way to the "big league" basketball experience. After all, the mindset is the same, even if the arenas and practice facilities are smaller: <i>a paycheck is a paycheck</i>. Also, consider that at any given time, there are roughly 5,000 American players receiving pay for basketball somewhere in the world. I'd argue that <i>being in the top 5,000 people in the world at doing <u>anything</u></i> is fairly impressive and I take my once-professional status (as meager as it may have been) as a point of pride. Moreover, as not much more more than a 6-foot, not-especially-fast-nor-athletic guy, you might recognize the themes of mental toughness and resiliency (along with lots of good luck!) as paramount throughout this story. <br />
<br />
"<i>Success is <b>peace of mind</b>, which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you did your best to become the best that you are capable of becoming.</i>" --Coach John Wooden<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>DISCLAIMER</b><br />
<br />
As I write, I plan to shift between fictitious names and actual names, depending on the circumstance. For example, I may protect certain people by tagging them with a pseudo-fictitious name. Others, depending on my experience with them, may not deserve such protection. And those people who deserve all the praise and accolades in the world (in my opinion) will be named truthfully in recognition of that fact. To simplify - if they were a saint or a sinner, I will probably use their real name. And if they were somewhere in between, or relatively inconsequential to the story and don't need the unwarranted Google-hit, I will use a made-up name...unless they are guys I played against and there's no need to obfuscate. Confused? I am too...but let's just see how it goes...<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>PROLOGUE</b><br />
<b><i>Ireland 1995-96, The Short Version. </i></b><br />
<br />
In September 1995, I found myself on a $350 flight from Toronto to Dublin, Ireland to join the Dungannon Basketball Club in Northern Ireland. Dungannon's GM, Frankie O'Loane, had gotten a hold of my VHS highlight tape and my player resume, and had looked beyond my stature and small-school background to note that I had had a brief professional experience in Costa Rica. As a result, he extended an invitation for me to join the team, but noted the tight budget constraints and added that the travel expense had to be on my own dime. I was a bit disappointed in that, and this was perhaps the first small moment when my romanticized version of "professional basketball" would be deflated. Yet given my limited prospects at that time, I felt that $350 was a small price to pay for a jaunt across the pond, and I went for it. I bought a round-trip ticket with the longest possible return flight, which was roughly six weeks (mid-October) from my September 5th departure date. Obviously, I hoped the return could be changed, or - better yet - altogether scrapped as unnecessary after Frankie had also noted the names and numbers of his two recent American imports, and they were both upstate NY guys with whom I had good conversations. One was their current American, a guy from central New York who had played at Colgate University. Let's call him Jonathan Rock for the sake of anonymity. As I considered my options and prepared for the trip over, I felt great about Dungannon. I believed that I fit the player/personality profile Frankie was after and would easily mesh with an American teammate from New York. In short, I felt I would be in very good hands.<br />
<br />
The weeks leading up to my departure, were a blur of workouts, goodbyes, and butterflies. On the workout front, I was killing it...but still not too far off a severe ankle injury my senior year of college which - in my opinion - may have prevented my team (Amherst College) from hoisting the 1994 DIII National Basketball Championship. Yes, I truly believe that. First, it was one of the best, most-balanced teams I had ever been a part of. Second, the team was hitting a whole new gear as the post-season approached, which was the first in which academic-oriented NESCAC schools would be allowed to participate. And third, I achieved a personal second-wind towards the end of that season that I just knew would propel us to the title in storybook fashion. (Storybook in part because the Final Four that season was to be held in Buffalo, NY...about a mile from my high school!) It all came crashing down with a shredded right ankle, and I was destroyed. We ended up losing in the Elite Eight to the eventual national champs Lebanon Valley, who were led by stellar point guard (and former summer camp teammate) Mike Rhoades and one-hell-of-a-coach Pat Flannery (who went on to fame as <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn0n79N2oJ4">Bucknell's NCAA-Cinderella-giant-killing</a> leader). We lost by 9, and I scored 8 points while wearing an air cast over my torn ankle ligaments...and I actually chipped the ankle bone trying to force myself to play. The reason all this is relevant is how it solidified my love of "<i>injury rehabilitation.</i>" I embraced rehab like a man possessed, and for the first time in my basketball career began to understand the value of sprint-work and physical therapy. I realized that I could use the time to get better and I ran sprint after sprint after sprint. My injury had left me with something to prove - and unfinished business - as a player. (I should send a shout out to Amherst coach Dave Hixon here, for introducing me to the grueling "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dwebZYbktM&feature=related">20 suicides</a> in 20 minutes" workout. Basically you'd run a suicide plus one length in any time under a minute - full speed is about 32 seconds and a jog is 45-50 seconds - and you use the time until the next minute as rest before starting again as that next minute starts. I latched onto this as a daily exercise because I could not round corners because of my ankle, and the straight-up-and-back nature of the suicide was perfect for me. I did these every which way possible...5 of them with a 35 second limit with 25 seconds rest, then 5 at 40 seconds with 20 seconds rest, back to 5 at 35 with 25 seconds rest, and then a final blast of 5 at 32 seconds or better...or sometimes a slow jog of all 20 in 50 seconds with 10 seconds rest. Either way, it got me into crazy good shape. And with the stop-start sprint to w<br />
<br />
[Sidebar: While I truly believe that were it not for that ankle injury, we'd have won the National Championship, I also realize that I may never have tapped in to the inner desire, anger, and hunger necessary to drive me to become a true professional. Looking back, it's such an interesting hypothetical: Would I rather have won that title, and never gone to Europe? Or played in Europe as I did and forgone the title? Let's just say that I am a little nostalgic at times, but Amherst's basketball program has exploded since than and garnered not only a national title (2008) but much-deserved accolades as a national power, and I am quite happy with exactly how things turned out for me in the end.] <br />
<br />
So, in short, the heart-breaking ankle injury I suffered in 1994 served to teach me another series of immensely valuable, sports-related lessons: <u>work hard to improve yourself, deal with - and maybe even embrace - pain and frustration as a means to get better both mentally and physically, rise to the challenge, and remember that every door that swings closed might also - it's really just a matter of perspective - be swinging open to a new opportunity.</u> And by the time the opportunity to play in Ireland came around (after a brief experience in the <i>*top notch*</i> Costa Rica League), I was leaner, trimmer, faster, and more explosive than I had ever been. It was a subtle change, but a critical one that is best illustrated by young <a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/354672/nash.jpg">Steve Nash</a> and trimmed-down MVP <a href="http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/nash_playfilegallery1.jpg">Steve Nash</a>.<br />
<br />
What followed during the end of that 1995 Summer, however, was just another reminder of that "<i>Murphy's Law, roll-with-the-punches, keep grinding, if-it-doesn't-kill-you-it-just-makes-you-stronger</i>" aspect of sports noted above: playing in a summer league game with the Colt 45 All-Stars (yeah, you read that right, see pic below from an earlier summer on that team), I stepped on my defenders foot while driving to the basket and subsequently rolled my <u>left</u> ankle. WTF! This was late August...Ireland was days away, and I now had an ankle the size of a grapefruit.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EVYVkBSQZNY/TLXuo62iFbI/AAAAAAAAAXw/Nb0GHWcQ2wM/s400/Colt+45+All-Stars.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Colt 45 All-Stars, ~1990 Summer League</b><br />
Front: Bernard, Cubby w/ Summer League Champs trophy<br />
Back: Jim Ewing, Hutch Jones, Brian Smith, me, Darryl, Chris Roosevelt</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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I tried to shrug it off, but the injury was actually a bit worse than I thought. You develop a sense for these things after a while, and the more times it happens, the more perfectly calm you can be during and after the injury as logic separates from pain receptors while you assess the damage. Anyone who remembers the <u>second</u> time they had the wind knocked out of them (and how ridiculously scary was the first? wow...) will be able to relate: you can calmly count out the seconds and you know your breathing will ultimately return to normal. Same thing with an ankle injury. I went down and immediately thought "not bad, no crutches, I will walk outta here, one week." Yet as I sat on the transatlantic flight to Dublin and felt my foot throbbing against the seams of my sneaker in the pressurized cabin, I thought "uh-oh." <br />
<br />
Upon landing in Dublin, I took a bus to the City Centre, then caught the train north to Belfast. I remember the sweeping green landscape passing by, and the old-time feel of the rickety train with it's uncomfortable seats, noisy clacking, and venerable sandwich cart vendors. At the agreed upon stop, I disembarked to meet 6'6" Jon Rock and the cherubic, leprechaun-like Frankie O'Loane. Remember when John Belushi played a <a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3243/3033622248_17e39fceee_z.jpg?zz=1">drunken version of a bumblebee</a>? That was kinda like Frankie's version of the leprechaun, which was really something more like an <a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_6OL9egOwkxQ/S04VbIa87rI/AAAAAAAAAg8/rr3qu0CO4gE/s400/eeyore.jpg">Eeyore</a>-<a href="http://images.clipartof.com/thumbnails/90301-Royalty-Free-RF-Clipart-Illustration-Of-A-Chubby-Drunk-Leprechaun-Sitting-In-A-Chair-With-Alcohol-Bottles-On-The-Floor.jpg">Leprechaun</a> cross. <br />
<br />
Things in Dungannon started off as well as could be expected. I was hobbled by my ankle, but masked it well, and just told myself I needed a couple weeks to get through it. It certainly held me back, but my job - as dictated by Frankie and Jon (who had been there a few years and was well-entrenched in the community and was actually dating an Irish girl in town pretty seriously) was "18 points and 10 assists" - and I thought that would not be a problem. Looking back, the injury hugely impacted my Dungannon experience, because I underwhelmed on the court and was largely inconsistent in those first couple of weeks. Had someone given me the skinny on Irish basketball (Hint: Americans are looked on to do everything, and even if you lose, at least outscore the Americans on the other team!), I would perhaps have approached things differently. Instead, I looked to follow Jon's community-entrenchment angle and never even looked over my shoulder, thinking all the while that his job was to score points, and mine was to play a classic supporting point-guard role. I figured that 18ppg and 10apg was well within my ability and not much to ask for anyway. As it turns out, no one - from "fellow American" Jon Rock to Frankie to anyone in town - was straight with me, so let me state it clearly here for any aspiring mid-level European ballers: <b><i>As one of two Americans per team, if you don't score 30 with 10 rebounds or 10 assists, you will be run out of town, quick! </i></b> Call this "Lesson #2" in terms of my discovery of the truth behind my romanticized, idealized expectations of Euro-ball. <br />
<br />
Looking back, my Dungannon experience was a perfect storm of injury, naivete, and denial (on my part) and less-than-straightforward management from the Club's part. So after a subpar outing or two (one during a scrimmage and courtesy of UPenn's <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/barry-pierce-1.html" target="_blank">Barry Pierce</a>, one of the strongest guards I have ever played against and one during a game courtesy of <a href="https://www.lynchburgsports.com/sports/mbkb/coaches/hscott?view=bio" target="_blank">Hilliary Scott</a>, a very talented and tall lead guard), GM/Coach Frankie O'Loane had his excuse and I was summarily called into his office and dismissed from the team.<br />
<br />
[<u>Sidebar:</u> I remember walking to the gym that day, and I recall seeing my American compatriot Jon Rock leaving the gym just as I crossed the street...and he didn't see me seeing him...and he didn't see me noticing him quickly head in the other direction. Clearly he knew was what coming, and signed off on it...as he should have. After all, he was an All-Star, had been with the club for several years, and was averaging 40ppg! But, having said all that, I would like to think if it were me, I might have manned up, approached the "rookie" in the European leagues, and said "<i>hey look, something is about to go down, and that sucks and I'm sorry...but it happens. But you keep your head up and you keep plugging away and good things will happen.</i>" Instead, he ducked around the building. Weak. There is more to life than basketball...especially when you are young guys overseas, away from family and friends, and just looking to make it in some mediocre, mid-level leagues.]<br />
<br />
I can't say I was completely shocked that Frankie cut me...but it still hurt. I had never been cut before. Additionally, as a 23-year old, one of my first thoughts was "what will people think" if I headed home just six weeks into my season, tail-between-legs, maybe not so good of a player after all? To make matters worse - and to this day I don't know if Frankie legitimately did this on purpose or not because he <u>knew</u> about my mid-October return ticket - he had cut me just a few days after that return fare expired! What quickly followed was a second level of "reality" over being cut. The first layer was just pride. But the second layer was the stark, harsh reality of "professional" life and logistics: this team had no need for me and they owed me nothing. I now had no place to live (it was team provided), obviously no paycheck, and no plane ticket home. <u>That</u>, ladies and gentlemen, is a truly harsh reality to face 3,000 miles from home at age twenty-three...and with a wounded pride, shaky confidence, and a bad ankle to boot.<br />
<br />
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Now, what happened next is equal parts magic, luck, and just being a good person and recognizing the same in others. Let's start with the latter: From my first days in Dungannon I connected with Paddy Gross, who served as something between team manager, supporter, and landlord. In fact, Jon Rock had a room in Paddy's apartment, while I had a room with Breda and Paul Quinn (Paddy's mom and step-dad) down the road. Paddy was the first to alert me on the subtleties of the Irish vernacular: </div>
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<i>"never say you root for a team...say you <b>barrack</b>"</i></div>
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<i>"it's not a sidewalk...it's a <b>footpath</b>"</i></div>
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<i>"do not call that thing a fanny-pack...<b>fanny</b> doesn't mean what you think it means here" </i></div>
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[and yes, you snicker at fanny pack - but recall this is 1995!]</div>
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<i>"the front of a car is the <b>bonnet</b>...the back of the car is the <b>boot</b>"</i></div>
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<i>"want to go to the pub for some <b>craic</b>?" </i></div>
<br />
We became fast friends, and remain so to this day. (Paddy's visit to NYC in 2000-2001 with his wife Helen is a story that must be told...but is also for another time.) And his mom - Breda - immediately reminded me of my own Irish grandmother and became a confidant, friend, and mother-figure to me during those six weeks in Dungannon. And it was Breda - my savior! - who as landlord, stood up to the Club and Frankie O'Loane and refused to kick me out of my room in her flat. In essence, she risked her cash flow (the team paid my rent) and risked her relationship with the Club in order to allow me to stay "as long as I needed." Ultimately, I stayed about two weeks, and here's the magic part: during that time Breda produced some "holy water" and proceeded to incant "the cure" over my injured ankle. Now, I told Breda that despite Jesuit-schooling, Catholicism wasn't really my thing...but she claimed it would work anyway. And in fairness, the two-week rest certainly helped, although it was probably more of a four-week recovery. Either way, when I next stepped on the court a couple weeks later, I felt great! Now the luck: remember that expired ticket? Well...if I had been cut before the ticket expired, I'd have already been home. But without it, and obviously with the help of others, I was forced to stay. And in staying, that "door swinging closed" just happened to "swing back open" to a whole other opportunity.<br />
<br />
Here's how: At some point during my six weeks in Northern Ireland, Frankie O'Loane probably discussed me with his good friend, American Jerome Eastbrooks. Jerome is from Chicago, and had been in Ireland since the early 80's. He was based in Dublin, partnered with Frankie on basketball camps and such, and was a player/coach for the Mid-Sutton Baldoyle Club and at the tail end of his long playing career. (Jerome also looms large in the story of 1996-1997...so stay tuned.) A couple weeks after I was cut, and probably figuring he had little to lose, Jerome reached out and invited me down to Dublin to "work out" with MSB. (Note that many low-budget clubs are happy to try out Americans released by other clubs in order to avoid $500-$1000 travel costs per ticket.) At that point, I also met Ed Randolph, another long-time American player from Florida and from Roger Williams University. Ed and Jerome had teamed up on MSB, and with Jerome stepping back to coach, were free to add another American to the mix. So...I trained down to Dublin and stayed a couple weeks with both Jerome and Ed. Notably, Ed lived in Bray, a gorgeous sea-front town in County Wicklow, just south of Dublin proper. Ed and his wife Anne had just bought the equivalent of a Manhattan brownstone, and they were in the midst of restoring the home themselves. Ed, Anne, and their two little boys Darren and Neil (who went on to become...<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darren_Randolph" target="_blank">this</a> and <a href="https://athletics.elmira.edu/roster.aspx?rp_id=2874" target="_blank">this</a>!) lived in a room or two upstairs, while downstairs boasted a mostly-finished kitchen and living room with a dirt floor. On my first night with Ed, he tossed me a sleeping bag, included a hot water bottle for the overnight cold, and pointed to a spot on that floor! (Ladies & Gentlemen: <i>Irish Pro Basketball!</i>) No fault of Ed or Anne's whatsoever - they were gracious enough to allow a complete stranger to share what little space they had - but imagine how that felt for me as a player: From Amherst College to InterAmericana Costa Rica to the Dungannon Club to...a sleeping bag on the dirt in the suburbs of Dublin, Ireland.<br />
<br />
So...I play a little with MSB and along the way notice my ankle feels pretty good. And my shot started to feel pretty good. And Ed and Jerome - as solid, solid guys - gave me the pep talk or at least the perspective that was lacking from Jon Rock back in Dungannon. "You'll be ok," they said. "You can <u>play</u>. You got this." At some point during those 2-3 weeks I was in Dublin, another team had lobbed in a call to either Jerome or to Frankie. I forget which, but the important part of the story is that the Marathon Basketball Club in Limerick, Ireland was looking for an American replacement player ahead of a big "Cup" game. [Let me explain "Cup" games for a moment: <i>Most basketball leagues in Europe mirror soccer in structure. There are divisions and you move up levels when you win and are relegated lower when you lose. And there's a regular season + playoff + championship which is also concurrently interspersed with a "Cup Challenge" throughout the season. Just like English soccer teams and Spanish soccer teams have their leagues, but also play in seemingly one-off "EuroLeague" or "EuroCup" games, the same was true of Irish basketball. And if you're strictly a basketball fan, just imagine if the NCAA Tournament happened concurrently with the regular season. So one weekend a month you played a Tourney game, rather than squeezing it all into March Madness.</i>] Marathon was scheduled to play Denny Notre Dame in a quarterfinal Cup game in about a week, and I hustled back to Dungannon, got my things, said my goodbyes to Breda, Paul, Paddy, and Helen, and headed south and east to Limerick, in County Clare. I should note here that again "luck" played a role in my experience. After seeing Dublin and especially Bray...and then Limerick, I was so thankful to have experienced the Republic of Ireland proper versus Northern Ireland, extension of the United Kingdom. In truth, I wasn't really aware of the difference before arriving in Ireland, but after my time in the "drab" (sorry guys, no offense meant) north, I was more than happy to be heading south. I arrived in Limerick to meet Coach Tommy Hehir, GM Seamus O'Connell, and American Ian Stewart. (Ed. Note: Ian Stewart = real name. He won't care ;) Ian is from the Midwest, played at Southern Illinois (Salukis!), never met a person he couldn't talk to, and never met a drink he didn't like. And also...maybe the best big man (6'9") shooter I have ever seen. Ian had one of those sweet "off and to the side, but just comes off the fingertips pure" Larry Bird-style strokes. Ian could really play.<br />
<br />
In truth, I was nervous as hell on arrival in Limerick, and more than a little shell-shocked after my experiences in Dungannon and then MSB. Here was yet another opportunity...with all eyes on me...playing with another team...a whole new set of people to impress...another chance for...<i>failure?</i> I truly wasn't sure. Overflowing confidence isn't exactly my strong suit. During one of my first one or two practices with the Marathon Club at their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ardscoil_R%C3%ADs,_Limerick" target="_blank">Ardscoil Ris</a> practice gym marked my epiphany as a "pro player," but the turning point was probably less profound and honorable than it was pure panic-induced. At some point during practice I fell into a "normal" basketball flow, which is to say "pass and move," more or less. And as this occurred, I just noticed the slightest deflation from Tommy or Seamus or my new teammates. Something was off. I don't know how I knew...but I could feel it coming: <i>Disappointment.</i> It also hadn't helped that at some point between returning to Dungannon and taking the cross-country train down to Limerick, someone had shared the rumor with me - <i>I think it was Frankie, actually. What a pr*ck!</i> - that Marathon was only signing me to get through this one Cup game against powerhouse Denny Notre Dame (featuring ex-Clemson stud <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/anthony-jenkins-2.html" target="_blank">Anthony Jenkins</a> and ex-Northern Arizona big man <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/ken-bosket-1.html" target="_blank">Ken Bosket</a>), just because I was an able body and better than not having a second American at all, and I'd be released shortly thereafter. As you might imagine, with those whispers rattling around my head combined with shaky confidence coming in, I was just...playing ball. Nothing out of the ordinary, nothing extreme. All "game management"...all "Stockton" and no "Steph." At some point in that practice, I just felt myself shrinking...and shrinking...and shrinking. I literally felt my back against the wall. And in the past, where I might have just...existed...and impressed no one, this time for some reason I just got angry. I just thought "No, <u>not gonna happen</u>." The next time I caught the ball, I forced up a deep three, the hell with it. <i>Swish!</i> The next time it was a one-dribble pull-up to my left, pushing off slightly with my right shoulder to create space, but also to exhibit some physicality. <i>Swish!</i> A steal and a drive to the bucket. A pick and roll with Ian. Every time I touched the ball the last 10 minutes, I made something happen. The more I did it, the more I felt the gym "inflate" with energy alongside my own confidence. And the more hushed it became when I got the ball. And the more respect the defense gave me, and the more off-balance my defenders, and more room I had to operate. And then something else clicked: this was my <u>job</u>. From that point on - from November 1995 to my last game (39 points on 9-12 from three) in April 1999 in Lucerne, Switzerland - I was a gunner, plain and simple. Actually, I take that back. I wasn't a gunner because I had a conscience. But my conscience was focused on putting as much pressure on the defense as I possibly could. I became a targeted assassin. I touch it, I test you. And believe me, I am not some amazing scorer by any stretch of the basketball imagination. But simply applying the mindset of "I will go at you and will never stop" yielded major results. It was purely mental. But that mental shift meant everything for me as a player.<br />
<br />
So I played well enough - leading the team with 27 points, my high for the season thus far (I scored 21 in one game for MSB) - against heavily-favored Notre Dame that the team kept me (Tommy Hehir even said at halftime...I kid you not: "<i>See, the new American can play! Give him the ball! We have a chance in the second half!</i>)<br />
<br />
From there...well...to be honest, I just shot and shot and shot and shot. Ian and I used to do shooting drills on a smaller "rebounding" rim and every make had to basically be dead center. And I began to respect the "practice makes perfect" component of the game. Sure, I had practiced before. But to compete vs. a teammate or to impress a coach. But not really to do something so frequently as to leave little to no doubt to the outcome. This was the point in my career that I refer to when I say the following to the kids I coach today: "<i>In high school ball, you hope you make the shot. In college ball, you are supposed to make the shot. And in pro ball, <u>you make the shot</u>. There is zero doubt</i>." With that work as a foundation, with fun teammates (and nightlife!), with a great American teammate in Ian, with a supportive coach, and with a healthy ankle...man, I just got hot. I went on a <u>real</u> run, putting up games of 36, 42, 44, 48, 38, 23, 47, and 61 to close out the season. Yes, <u>sixty-one</u>...and I still have that box score. I closed the season averaging 35.6ppg. (And Dungannon - for the record - closed the year virtually winless and went through some 10 Americans trying to find the right "fit.") Marathon finished in a respectable 3rd place in the league, and I was asked by Tommy and Seamus to make plans to return to Limerick the following season.<br />
<br />
But at some point just before I left for home, Jerome Eastbrooks also reached out and invited me back to Dublin for a weekend...and he re-recruited me with a whole new pitch: He and Ed Randolph had their Irish passports. Gerald Kennedy (Virginia Tech) was on board as an American import that would play the wing. Would I consider signing with MSB to play the point in 1996-1997 for...the <i>Dublin Dream Team</i>?<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>CHAPTER ONE</b><br />
<b><i>Departing NYC, September 1996</i></b><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b>CHAPTER TWO</b><br />
<b><i>From Dublin Dream Team to Nightmare, September to December 1996</i></b><br />
<br />
<b>CHAPTER THREE</b><br />
<b><i>Descending on Malta, January to May 1997</i></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>CHAPTER FOUR</b><br />
<b><i>"God first made Mauritius, and from it he created Paradise" - Mark Twain, June to July 1997</i></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>CHAPTER FIVE</b><br />
<b><i>22,544 Miles, July 1997</i></b><br />
<br />
working at Monness... yer a bum...<br />
the work permit fiasco<br />
amsterdam airport - the fly, the sleep<br />
bethany chadwick - moving to dublin...then bray - BAELYN<br />
the sponsorship nonsense<br />
bad break up - FIBA license - the plane ticket withheld<br />
connecting with Malta online - bob Kingsley had nothing available<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-91287394638191402032012-03-11T21:15:00.006-04:002020-09-21T19:38:16.923-04:00Looking Back: Anecdotes On "Pro" Basketball And Life Abroad...<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<i>Recently my friend Marek Wojtera - the founder of <b><span style="color: magenta;"><a href="http://eurobasket.com/" target="_blank">Eurobasket.com</a></span></b> - asked me to write a few pages summarizing my experiences playing basketball abroad. H</i><i>e thought that my somewhat-unique story might be an interesting addition to a book he's currently working on. (A</i><i>pparently, not many guys played in the "mega-powerhouse" leagues in Costa Rica, Ireland, Malta, Mauritius, and Switzerland!) </i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i>What follows is my contribution to his project...</i></div>
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<br />
On the morning of September 11th, 2001, I was at my desk working as an equity trader with a midtown Manhattan hedge fund. It had been about two years since I had "retired" my professional basketball sneakers, having played my last game in Switzerland in 1999. Our trading desk had just hung up from a conference call with a firm on the 105th floor of the first tower, and we'd soon find out that they were hit directly. That day was a swirl of emotions for me; some traumatic, some confused, but almost all were negative. About the only thing positive I can remember feeling that day was the warmth and genuine concern conveyed in those first few emails to hit my inbox post 8:46am. No, they weren't from my family, or even from within the United States, for that matter. Instead, they were from <i>Ireland</i>...from <i>Malta</i>...and from <i>Mauritius</i>...all asking if I was ok. <br />
<br />
That's probably a bit much to take in, and you'd be right in wondering how all this relates to basketball. So let me explain...<br />
<br />
There's a Phil Jackson quote that sums up my feelings on the sport best. In his book<span style="color: #3d85c6;"> </span><span style="color: red;"><b><i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Sacred-Hoops-Spiritual-Lessons-Hardwood/dp/078688200X" target="_blank">Sacred Hoops</a></i></b></span>, Jackson - ever the basketball philosopher - says "<i>Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball</i>." And for me, basketball overseas was - in large part - about finding out if that statement was true.<br />
<br />
I never had delusions of grandeur when I set out to play for a paycheck. I knew that I was not NBA material - that much is obvious. But I <i>also</i> knew that basketball could help me achieve a set of life experiences that few are lucky enough to have. I knew it could take me to unique and interesting countries, and gain me entry as a <i>local</i>, rather than a tourist...a <i>neighbor</i> rather than a visitor. And that makes all the difference. So, my goal was two-fold: <i>First</i>, maximize my physical ability to get the absolute most that I could out of my own potential. And yes, as a six-foot, relatively slow jump shooter, that was already asking a lot. And <i>second</i>, I simply wanted to use basketball as my passport to cultural and geographical exploration. I wanted to use the sport as a means to see whatever I could of the world, and to soak it all in.<br />
<br />
I should also mention at this point that the experience of basketball overseas back in the mid-90s was quite different from today. Back then, I spent most of my money buying phone cards to call back home. Or I sent actually paper letters - this was just before email! And there was certainly no Skype! I have to imagine that players today are much less homesick simply because there is so much more technology to help stay in touch with family and friends back home.<br />
<br />
It started in Costa Rica in 1995, where I played for the <i><b><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universidad_Interamericana_de_Costa_Rica#/media/File:Escudo_U_Interam.PNG" target="_blank">Universidad InterAmericana de Costa Rica</a></b></i> (UICR) team. My coach was a hustler named Francisco, who was excited by the sparkling white-skinned gringo that landed on his doorstep. We played our games in the <b><i><a href="http://www.nacion.com/deportes/otros-deportes/Icoder-pifia-arreglo-Gimnasio-Nacional_0_1293270692.html" target="_blank">Gimnasio Nacional</a></i></b> in <span style="color: red;"><b><i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Sabana_Metropolitan_Park" target="_blank">La Sabana Park</a></i></b></span> in San Jose and the basketball was surprisingly good. The Costa Rican league had good athletes - although not much size - who loved the game and played hard. (At least on my team.) <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uXfesBxwLdo/T2ZSEYn0YxI/AAAAAAAAAbs/BP06Ua8ZnGE/s1600/EUROBASKET+ARTICLE_0005.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uXfesBxwLdo/T2ZSEYn0YxI/AAAAAAAAAbs/BP06Ua8ZnGE/s320/EUROBASKET+ARTICLE_0005.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Playing before a "packed house" at the Gimnasio Nacional</span></div>
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From what I remember, Costa Rica at the time was geographically split into three parts: the west coast, the east coast, and San Jose. The east coast was considered rough, and was mostly Caribbean in culture, whereas the capital and the west coast were more hispanic. One of my first games was in <i><b><a href="http://anypy.imgix.net/destination/limon-costa-rica/2-dsc0259.JPG?w=1000&h=418.410041841&fit=crop" target="_blank">Limon, a rugged, industrial east coast town</a></b></i>. Apparently we weren't playing at the usual venue, and our team bus nervously circled the dimly lit streets, searching among dilapidated waterfront buildings for the unmarked gym. Truthfully, I wondered if I was about to play a basketball game, or instead wander into some kind of back alley, secret, Far East fighting competition. We finally found it, though, and we were escorted to a locker room that was just below street level and under the side of the building. Looking up through the grates - which offered the only ventilation amidst the coastal humidity - we could see the sidewalk above. Of course, as it turned out, the grates offered more than just ventilation. They also provided just the right opening for the little kids in town to either pee or spit down at visiting teams! It was pretty funny to see my teammates jump out of the way when the first stream of water came down, and it was just luck that had me sitting across the room against the opposite wall. <i>Holy crap</i>, I thought. <i>Welcome to "pro" basketball!</i><br />
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It didn't get any easier once we took the court, and it turned out to be a pretty tough game. Of course, after the locker room incident, it was easy to assume that the local refs would swallow their whistles when we had the ball. But I hadn't expected the level of athleticism and "style" that we encountered. Cable TV and modern basketball - someway, somehow - had made it to the sleepy little industrial town of Limon. during warm-ups, every opposing player wore wearing baggy shorts, short socks, and wagged their tongues while dunking (which is legal in international ball). In other words, they had <i>seen </i>Michael Jordan play. And these skinny, long-limbed, big-shorted, tongue-waggers were pulling off all of <i><b><a href="http://cdn-jpg.si.com/sites/default/files/2013/02/michael-jordan-reverse-dunk.jpg" target="_blank">Jordan's best dunk contest stuff</a></b></i> with <i>ease</i>. I was transfixed, and I figured that we were in serious trouble. But my teammates were surprisingly calm, and - as it turned out - they were right and I was the naive "rookie." As the older, more experienced, organized, "big city" team, we pulled out the win. After our locker room experience, though, no one showered after! I can remember Coach Francisco saying "forget the showers, guys...let's get out of here!"<br />
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It was on the drive home that I first realized that the <b><i><a href="http://www.twoweeksincostarica.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Rough-road-in-Costa-Rica.jpg" target="_blank">driving in Costa Rica</a></i></b> is...well, um...insane. The roads that branched out from San Jose were windy and elevated, and were carved around mountains and rain forests. UICR charted an old school bus for road trips, and after that game in Limon we all fell asleep on the midnight ride back to San Jose. As the nervous "new guy," I was a little too aware of the mortality rate on Costa Rican roads (highest in the world at the time, or so I had read), and I stayed awake. And with the bus snoring in peace, imagine my shock (and horror!) in watching the grizzled old bus driver repeatedly sticking his entire torso out the window - all the way out to his waist. He was either using the blast of air to keep himself awake, or trying to see around bends to avoid advancing cars! And either way, I was more than a little freaked out. <i>Are we about to die? Is this normal? Should I wake everyone up? Is this guy crazy?</i> Somehow my squirming woke up Francisco, who - in classic "island-cool" style, like the Jamaican guy dozing on the street corner - barely rose his head from his crossed-arm dozing, opened just one eye, spotted my panic, and just started cackling. "<i>Don't worry</i>," he said, in broken english. "<i>This is just how he drives. We haven't died yet</i>." I nodded along and pretended to calm down. But it wasn't reassuring. And as you'd expect, I never slept on any roadtrip in Costa Rica. I kept a close eye on Jose the bus driver instead. Wouldn't you? I always wonder if that guy is still out there somewhere, navigating his bus around volcanic mountaintops, in the beautiful cloud rain forests surrounding San Jose. <br />
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Our practice facility also offered a valuable lesson in expecting the unexpected. It was basically an old barn with a painted concrete floor. During normal weather, the sliding "barn doors" on each side stayed open. And when it rained, they were pulled closed. But that's not the interesting part. About half way through my first practice there I noticed two things, both at roughly the same time. The first was that the floor was getting <u>really</u> slippery. The combination of humidity and sweat droplets on painted concrete did not exactly lend itself to solid footing and traction. Quite the opposite. It was more like playing on an ice rink in basketball sneakers. Basically we'd practice until we were pushing the limits of dangerous injury with regards to the floor...and then we stopped. Again I thought <i>Where the hell am I? <u>This</u> is basketball overseas??</i> But that wasn't the surprise. Around the same time the floor turned slippery, the ball also turned sticky. <i>How was that possible?</i> I finally stopped, and made a close inspection of the ball. It turns out that over time - whether due to attraction to the lights or attraction to the players' sweat - the court would draw more and more ants and jungle bugs. Bouncing the ball killed the bugs, which left a stickiness all over it. It was <i>tiny dead ants</i>!! My teammates had a good laugh over my reaction. It wouldn't be the first time...<br />
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After Costa Rica, I landed a contract in Ireland, playing for the <i><b><a href="http://www.tyronetowers.co.uk/html/club.html" target="_blank">Dungannon club</a></b></i>, in County Tyrone, just outside Belfast in Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, I had severely sprained an ankle playing in a U.S. summer league before heading to Ireland in September 1995. Without ample time to heal, the injury nagged me for weeks and my play was sub-par. As a result, my time in Dungannon was short-lived and the team manager, Frankie O'Loane, released me six weeks after my arrival. It was a valuable lesson on the realities of professional sport - I had never been cut from any team in my entire life. It was a harsh experience, but at 23 years old, it helped me mature and it certainly toughened me up. And in the end, it proved to be a blessing. <br />
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After allowing my injury to heal, I was picked up by <i><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxLdZWZ1L9U" target="_blank"><b>Marathon Limerick</b></a></i> in the Republic of Ireland, where I played out the season, ultimately making the all-star team, leading the country in scoring (36ppg), and setting the national record for points in a game at 61! <br />
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Ireland was full of amazing experiences, and I always look back on my time there fondly. Yes, <i><b><a href="http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/ireland/dublin?month=12&year=1996" target="_blank">winter time is dark</a></b></i> and drizzly, but for the rest of the year, the rolling green hills and historic countryside more than made up for winter. I was lucky enough to arrive in Ireland just as the movie <b><i><a href="http://www.movie-locations.com/movies/b/Braveheart.html" target="_blank">Braveheart</a></i></b> had been released, and I loved imagining that the roads I traveled were once walked by the Celtic tribes of yore. And just as a reminder that Irish lands still remain contested to this day, it was a feature of the "border crossing" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (which is officially the U.K., like Scotland or Wales) that armed guards would board the team bus for a quick bomb search because of the still-ongoing Protestant/Catholic conflicts in the country. In fact, one of these late night "inspections" by a border patrol after a long road trip was probably the first time I had ever seen a real machine gun in my life. It truly made me think I was in a different world - I had only seen guns like that in third world military conflicts on the nightly news... <br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">IRA graffiti along buildings in Northern Ireland</span></div>
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Funny enough, even though Ireland is an English-speaking country, surprise language differences sometimes made me feel like I was in a different world too. For example, I will never forget when one of the club members - Paddy Gross, who remains a good friend to this day - welcomed me to town, and asked me if I wanted to join him at the local pub for some crack! <i>What?! Do the Irish have a drug problem? Or just this guy? Openly talking about crack rock? What was next, heroin?</i> I stared back and him and stammered "<i>cr...cr...crack? Did you say crack?</i>" <i>Yes</i>, Paddy chuckled. <i><b><a href="http://www.irishcentral.com/culture/craic/Irish-craic-explained---the-top-six-levels-of-craic-you-can-reach.html" target="_blank">Craic</a></b>. You know, a bit of fun. Good times. It's a gaelic term.</i> Ah, so that explained it. I quickly learned that the trunk of car was called the <i>boot</i>, that sidewalks are called <i>footpaths</i>, you don't root for a team - you <i>barrack</i>, you never say <i>thanks for the ride</i> - instead it's <i>thanks for the lift</i>. And remember, this was the mid-90s, but under no circumstances would you tell a young lady that she had a nice <i>fanny</i> pack. (I will let someone else explain that last one to you, but I am very lucky that Paddy set me straight early on.) I also learned to appreciate afternoon tea and "bikkies" (biscuits), I found out that when I ordered salad they brought me cole slaw, and I quickly became addicted to their candy bars. Chocolate bars in Ireland are dispensed in <i><b><a href="http://s3-media2.fl.yelpcdn.com/bphoto/UhK_VZma_sUzHBFJd-FcWQ/o.jpg" target="_blank">refrigerated machines set alongside soda machines</a></b></i>. So...yes, <i><b><a href="http://www.irish-mussels.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2010/08/162-MUSS.jpg" target="_blank">Kenmare mussels are incredible</a></b></i>, fresh caught whiting is delicious, and a local Irish stew on a cold night is an absolute pleasure. But you truly haven't lived until you've tasted a perfectly chilled Kit Kat or Twix bar, especially with the less-pastuerized milk chocolate overseas. <br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Guinness and good <i>craic</i> with the Marathon Limerick team.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">I am third from the left and Ian Stewart (Southern Illinois) is third from the right. </span> </div>
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As for basketball, the Irish League was good, but very rough. Most of the Irish were converted rugby players or gaelic football players, so physicality was part of the game for them. How did that translate to the game itself? Well, lets just say that I collected a few bruises along the way, and took my share of free throws. Speaking of free throws, referees were a huge drawback to the Irish League. No fault of these guys (and girls, seriously...well ahead of the NBA!) -- it's just that they were completely new to the game. Bad calls were a problem, inconsistency was a big problem, and even positioning came into play. Playing for Mid-Sutton in a big "National Cup" game against storied club (or <i>side</i>) Neptune, I shot a deep three pointer and actually landed on the referees foot, twisting my ankle pretty badly. I was furious - <i>what was that guy doing standing right on top of me! </i> I had it taped at halftime, but managed something like 10 points in the second half after scoring 25 points in the first. Losing that game was incredibly frustrating, since it was the upstart MSB Club's chance to beat an established powerhouse...and I am still mad at that damned ref.<br />
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Early scoring was a strategy I employed with great success in the Irish League. The first time through the league, when no one really new one another's players (even the locals moved around a lot in the off-season), it was easy to for me to sneak in the first ten points of the game. In general, with two Americans per team, most imports were either tall or African-American. And I am neither. In fact, I look more Irish than anything. I would enjoy a good laugh about five minutes into the game, asking the other team's Americans "<i>did you figure out that I'm the American yet? One of you guys might consider guarding me.</i>" Trash-talk, yes, but it was subtle and effective. And fun... <br />
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Off the court, Ireland was equally enjoyable. However, while the Americans were able to dominate the basketball courts, the locals got their revenge after the games, when they would dominate the pub. My teammates loved lining up the Irish whiskey and the Guinness drafts after games and practices, and would then "teach me how to drink." <i> Let's just say that I left a few braincells in Ireland during my time there. </i> To this day, I think of <i><b><a href="http://www.traditionalirishpubs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Nancy-3.jpg" target="_blank">a pub called Nancy Blake's</a></b></i> when someone asks me about my favorite bars in the world. The front section was dimly lit and had a cackling fire. Local musicians played traditional Gaelic music while an older crowd sipped strong Irish drinks. <br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Traditional Irish music in the front room of a pub.</span></div>
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The middle section was a bit more lively. A younger crowd swayed to contemporary Irish favorites like U2, The Cranberries (from Limerick), and Thin Lizzy. And the back section boasted an open dance floor that spilled out to a heated outdoor terrace. This was the loudest and most energetic room of Nancy Blake's, and my teammates and I spent most of our post-game outings here. One great thing about drinking in Ireland - the pubs all stop serving alcohol at 11pm. The lights flicker and "last call" is announced. Typically, groups would then pool their money into one last large order, lining up - say - 10 pints and 10 shots to last the next hour or so. It depended on the bar...sometimes they'd toss you at 11:15pm, and sometimes you can hang around an hour. The best thing about this, however, was that it made you go home and go to bed! In fact, you'd typically be home by midnight for at least eight hours sleep, which greatly aided the hangover recovery the next day! This may sound strange, but as a happily married father today, I can now admit that I really enjoyed the fact that Irish pub culture seemed - at least in part - more about "male bonding" than the social scene. I truly enjoyed hanging out with the guys, cracking jokes on each other and drinking the night away. And I found it hilarious when my young Irish teammates would break into song together. I mean, there's something you never see in the States! These guys would lock arms at every damn U2 ballad and just nail the sing-along. No fear, no shame, and they sounded half-decent! It's a singing culture, truly. <br />
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Limerick was a really great town, despite it's rough reputation. And in many ways it was a throwback to traditional, rural Ireland. During my off days from basketball practice I would jog in the roads surrounding the city, and oftentimes my route would be diverted by cows completely blocking the road, as a farmer would be moving his herd from one field and down the road to another. The farmers always gave a smile and a shrug as if to say "<i>hey, what can you do?</i>" In truth, I probably looked stranger to them in my bright basketball gear and headphones than they looked to me, walking down the street surrounded by 50 head of cattle! <br />
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As for Dublin, what a great place. Food, people, parks, history, architecture...Dublin in 1996 was just in the beginning stages of the "<i><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtic_Tiger" target="_blank">Celtic Tiger</a></b></i>" rise that a 10% flat corporate tax helped spark. It was a fun place to be, and I actually enjoyed some great basketball in Dublin, where the 1996-97 <b>Mid-Sutton Baldoyle</b> team became known in the local media as the "Dream Team of Ireland." Naturalized veteran Americans <i><b><a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/columnists/kieran-shannon/ed-randolph-interview-ed-and-shoulders-above-the-rest-365021.html" target="_blank">Ed Randolph</a></b></i> and <b><i><a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/westbrooks-clan-carve-out-a-special-irish-niche-1.911372" target="_blank">Jerome Westbrooks</a></i></b> had teamed up and recruited another very talented veteran wing player named <i><b><a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/other-sports/coach-finds-new-measure-of-wealth-176359.html" target="_blank">Gerald Kennedy</a></b></i>. The missing piece was a point guard, and as my season in Limerick came to a close, Jerome invited me to Dublin for a "recruiting visit" to gauge my interest for that following season. Standing on the curb outside a traditional Irish fish & chip stop with Jerome, swaying slightly from the 4-5 Guinness we'd just enjoyed, and watching the whisps of steam escape in the chill Irish night as I peeled back my <i><b><a href="http://media.irishcentral.com/images/MI-Fish-and-chips-newspaper.jpg" target="_blank">newspaper-wrapped fried fish</a></b></i> and inhaled the salt & vinegar scent, I looked up at the crisp, clear night sky and thought "<i>yeah, I'd like to play here.</i>" It was a great decision, and Dublin will go down as among my favorite cities of all time as a result. My Irish teammates are also some of the most interesting characters I have ever come across. More than a few of these guys worked as bartenders in addition to their basketball duties, and they were always full of jokes and quick-witted quips. In contrast to my Costa Rican experience, I spent most road trips in Ireland laughing the entire way to the gym, and I think back fondly on those trips. <br />
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In early 1997, however, Mid-Sutton faced some financial difficulties on the sponsorship front, however, and my salary seemed to arrive later and later each week. It made me nervous that I would even be paid at all, and - as a result - when a Maltese team (<b>Qormi Basket Club</b>) parted ways with their American and was in need of a replacement, I was more than happy to head to the<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malta" target="_blank"> <i><b>small, sunny, historic island in the middle of the Mediterranean</b></i></a>. <br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>The Mediterranean island of Malta from atop an old fortress</i></span></div>
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I was surprised - as you probably are - to hear that Malta <i><b><a href="http://mba.org.mt/" target="_blank">had a league at all</a></b></i>. It was small by most measures, and reflected the tiny nation (estimated population in 1997: about 400,000). The league had 10 teams, and only allowed one import per club. Seven clubs had Americans, two brought in less-expensive Yugoslavian imports, and one went without an import at all. The teams practiced in their local towns, but all league games were played in Ta' Qali National Arena, which was a converted World War II airplane hangar. Because the island was so small, all the Americans new each other, and we actually met at the National Arena almost every morning to lift weights together and play 3-on-3 before heading out to our individual team practices at night. I had certainly never seen that done before, but it was fun. And it was great training; these 3-on-3 games which featured players like <i><b><a href="http://basketball.eurobasket.com/player/Tim_Britt/Siggiewi_Derby/9922" target="_blank">Tim Britt</a></b></i> (Tennessee-Martin), <i><b><a href="http://www.patriotledger.com/article/20141028/sports/141026128" target="_blank">Brian Holden</a></b></i> (Drexel), Lynn Tryon (Colorado), and Roger Fasting (Montana) were some of the best that I have ever been a part of. <br />
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Going up against Tim Britt from Tennessee</span></i></div>
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I had arrived halfway through the season and immediately fell in love with the historical element of Malta, which sits just off the "toe" of Italy and had been a crossroads of culture dating as far back as the Phoenicians. I was placed in an apartment in Rabat, a small quintessential hilltop town which sat beside the history ancient Roman city of Mdina, and looked down on the entire island and the surrounding deep purple Mediterranean Sea. After rainy, dark, and often-dreary Ireland, it was heaven on earth for me. My team also set me up with a restaurant - The Camps - which provided me with my daily meals. <br />
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">The lunch crowd at The Camps - Johnny is at the far right.</span></i></div>
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The owner of the place, Johnny, wore coke-bottle glasses and spoke with a rich Maltese accent, which made him sound like a cross between an Italian mafia don, a belligerent Brit, an Arab elder, and a Hebrew wise man all at once. (In fact, Maltese is an incredibly complicated language. It borrows vocabulary and elements of speech from each culture that has controlled the island at one point or another: French, English, Arabic, Hebrew, Italian, etc.) Johnny looked me up and down on my first visit to The Camps and said "<i>ah, de new American...burrrger and cheeps, right? Datsa what de last guy eat all de time.</i>" <i>Tell you what, Johnny,</i> I laughed. <i>How about you give me the special of the day every day, and just don't tell me what it is until after.</i> His eyes widened. <i>Reeeelly?</i> Johnny was so excited, and apparently, I had made a friend for life. It also kicked off a culinary adventure of sorts. I ate horse that season. And sweetbreads. And massive stuffed squid. And fenek (rabbit), a local delicacy. Johnny also made his own wine and sheep's cheese...and the Maltese bread? <i>Wow</i>. In my opinion - and I love French bread - Malta's bread is the finest in the world. I also discovered a local <i><b><span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.pastizzi.com/" target="_blank">pastry called pastizzi</a></span></b></i>, which is something like a croissant filled with creamy and delicious cheese. Washed down with the national soft drink - <span style="color: red;"><i><b><a href="http://www.kinnie.com/" target="_blank">Kinnie</a></b></i></span> - it was absolute heaven. <br />
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The basketball in Malta was so-so, but the sunny climate and historic element of the country more than made up for it. The capital, Valetta, is essentially a fortified city, frozen in time, from an era of Knights and Crusades, and pirates and brigands. In fact, steps in the hilly city center of Valetta are very broad but only an inch or two high because the knights could not lift their armored legs any higher! <br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>The broad, thin steps of Valetta</i></span></div>
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Being in Malta is literally to walk in the footsteps of history. And at least twice Malta has been at the forefront of critical military conflict. In the 1500s, a small garrison of one thousand knights held off an invading Ottoman army of 30,000 or more. Had Malta fallen, we might all be speaking Arabic to this day, for the Ottomans would have then controlled the Mediterranean and moved up to Sicily and right on through Italy into the heart of what was then the Western world. And during World War II, when the British controlled the island, a haggard skeleton crew of soldiers and pilots, exhausted and starved, cut off from supply lines, repelled attacks from Mussolini's air forces time and time again. In fact, the entire nation of Malta was awarded the King George Cross for valor during WWII...<br />
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Getting back to basketball, I truly found myself pushed to the limit as an import in Malta, simply because so much was expected of that one player. When the team President and Manager met me at the Airport for the first time, I was surprised to hear that most Americans averaged 40 points and 10 rebounds a game! Hell, I had not gotten 10 rebounds in a game since I was probably 12 years old and then the tallest guy on the court. "<i>Ok,"</i> I laughed. <i>How about 40 points and 10 assists?"</i> I quickly came to find out that American's routinely scored 50 points per game in the Maltese League. It wasn't that hard - we just took all the shots. I can remember one game between my club, Qormi (the Q is silent), and Floriana. Floriana's American was a tremendous player named Tyron McCoy (Virginia Commonwealth), who had a long career in Europe which even extended on to the Euroleague. Tyron and I had a shoot-out...I think he scored 50 points and I scored 55, but his team won by one point, 102-101. The next day's newspaper article, however, placed the blame for the loss squarely on my shoulders for misfiring on the final shot to win the game. <i>Wow</i>, I thought. <i>This place is tough! 55 points and it was considered a poor performance by the press! </i><br />
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Referees were also a problem in Malta, as they were in any country where basketball was relatively new. Once, a league referee became sick, and had to be replaced at the last minute. The Maltese Basketball Federation chose a soccer referee to fill in, and brought in the oldest and most experienced professional. The only problem was, he didn't know the rules of basketball! At a critical point, near the end of a hard-fought game, I was trapping an opposing player with one of my teammates and we managed to steal the ball. But the whistle blew and I spun around to see the soccer referee with a raised arm pointing at me. That was bad enough, but he blew the whistle again (even though play had already stopped) and then pointed at my teammate, who already had four fouls. He was calling a foul on each of us on the same play! And my teammate had fouled out! I had never seen anything like it. My coach was going crazy. I tried to plead with the ref. I explained to him that you can't have two separate fouls on the same play. <i>Oh yes you can</i>, he said. <i>Because you both fouled!</i> Needless to say, we lost a close game...and that "double-call" had a lot to do with it!<br />
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At some point near the end of my season in Malta, I was contacted by the <b>Real Club</b> (yes, like Real Madrid) in Mauritius (!), who was looking to import an American for their playoff run. Completely confused, I asked a Maltese travel agent friend, Colin Portelli, for some information. He showed me a brochure for what looked exactly like Hawaii -- a total island paradise. In fact, Mark Twain once famously wrote - when passing through Mauritius in 1896 - "<i>You gather the idea that Mauritius was made first, and then heaven; and that heaven was copied after Mauritius.</i>" <br />
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">New friends in Mauritius, island paradise...</span></i></div>
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I quickly accepted the contract since it was for a month of play after my season in Malta would be complete, and also <i>not-so-quickly</i> discovered - after a 45 minute flight to Rome and then 15 hours from Rome to Mauritius - that Twain was right. Again I had stumbled on another historically significant island. Mauritius was first "civilized" by the Dutch, who stopped off at this ocean oasis for fresh water and provisions while traveling from India and around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa during the 1500-1600s spice trade. Mauritius is also famous for the now-extinct Dodo bird, which was rumored to be so slow and dumb that the Dutch would simply walk up to them and club them on the head. Modern-day Mauritius is an eclectic mix of cultures. There was a wealthy French and British upper class, left over from the Napoleonic control of the country and then the British rule that followed. An Indian population had developed after Indian workers had originally been imported to work in the tea fields. A Chinese population remained from when workers had also been imported to work on rail lines. There were also eastern African muslims, and a local creole culture. All in all, it was quite a mix. In Mauritius, it's not uncommon to see a catholic church next to a mosque, which is next to a Hindu temple. Not every country can say that! Mauritius also has gorgeous beaches, amazing vanilla tea, fresh seafood, and one of my favorite local beers: Phoenix, otherwise known as "L'araignee" or "The Spider" for the <span style="color: red;"><i><b><a href="http://www.leue-photo.com/mauritius/source/image/2007-04-16-009.jpg" target="_blank">design on the label</a></b></i></span>.<br />
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">After a Real Club practice. I am 2nd from the left.</span></i></div>
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I have to admit that I was something of a celebrity in Mauritius. No American had ever played there before. I was whisked off of my flight and right to a press conference, where I was proudly introduced by my new family, the Real Club. I found myself on the front page of the national newspapers for weeks, and people recognized me in the streets. On the other hand, other clubs were less than happy about my arrival and registration, and some clubs protested the games against Real. Other times, when we did play, opposing players tried to hurt me on purpose. On one occasion, an especially rugged local player gave me a cheap shot elbow to the jaw, then was tossed from the game, but not before throwing the ball at the referee. My jaw felt like it was broken, and as soon as the game ended, I was taken to the local hospital, or at least the nearest one that was open, and had an x-ray machine. To be honest, I thought the place looked a little different than most hospitals, but I just figured that I was not seeing straight considering I may have had a concussion. They took full x-rays of my head right away (given the technology/machinery at hand, I can only assume they pumped my body full of WW2 era radiation), and thankfully they came back negative. It was only later than I discovered why the "clinic" looked so funny. It was a veterinarian's office! No wonder the x-ray room felt strange to me - the prior "customers" had been cats and dogs! I still have that full x-ray of my entire skull, by the way. It's a great souvenir. <br />
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Basketball in Mauritius was scattered and disorganized. Players were athletic but unskilled, and games there were relatively easy for me. My club, Real, was very well-funded, but we still practiced at night, outside! (I can't even imagine what the other poorer clubs did.) Despite it all, it was fun to be a small part of Mauritius "history," as I helped Real win their first of several championships in a row. Just as a late night injury had been forced to take me to a vet's office for medical treatment, getting food at 10pm after practice was also very different. Mauritius in 1997 was just this sleepy little island. Even the capital city of Port Louis was closed up at 9:30 or 10pm. My teammates soon showed me a great "trick" on how to get food late at night however, and it was thanks to Ramadan. You see, there was a mosque (<span style="color: red;"><b><i><a href="http://www.jummahmasjid.org/photos.asp" target="_blank">Jummah</a></i></b></span>) near the outdoor court where we played, and a man would arrive each night with a huge metal cauldron somehow strapped to the back of his moped. He would set-up in front of the mosque to feed the hungry throngs of people just ending their day's fast, and the wafting smell of chicken biryani wafting from his massive pot was enough to draw me and my teammates over as well. It's a heck of a mental image: a group of muslims breaking fast, sitting side-by-side with a Mauritian basketball team, sitting on the sidewalk amidst the <span style="color: red;"><i><b><a href="http://www.islandcrisis.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/portlouispostoffice.jpg" target="_blank">1800s french architecture of downtown Port Louis</a></b></i></span>, looking up at the <span style="color: red;"><i><b><a href="http://fromoffshore.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/southern-cross.jpg" target="_blank">Southern Cross</a></b></i></span> constellation, and eating the greatest chicken biryani I have ever tasted. <br />
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Once again, I was simply amazed that the game of basketball - this sport where you tossed an orange leather ball through an iron hoop ten feet off the ground - delivered me here. All I could do was shake my head in amazement. After spending a few weeks in Mauritius, I quickly began to understand why the local players weren't better. There were simply too many distractions! I learned to scuba dive in Mauritius, which I consider one of my passions to this day. The underwater world is simply incredible. I spent my days at the beach and stayed up late after practice and drank Mauritius' <span style="color: red;"><i><b><a href="http://www.greenislandmauritiusrum.com/" target="_blank">famous Green Island Rum</a></b></i></span> with my teammates, most of whom could only imagine what a day in New York City might be like. During the day, before basketball practice, I would walk to the local nearby beach where the locals would recognize me and share their coconut juice and grilled fruit bat (yes! I have eaten bat!) lunches with me. At night, I would sit on my terrace, looking up from my book (there was barely TV) to note the sounds of crashing waves and tropical birds. Yep, Mark Twain was right after all. Mauritius was heaven. <br />
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">"Drinking from the Cup"...League Champions!</span></i></div>
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Trou aux Biches, my "personal" beach, down the street from my apartment.</span></i></div>
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My final season was spent in just outside of Lausanne, Switzerland, playing for the <b>Echallens Club</b>. After my experience in Mauritius, Switzerland seemed uber-modern to me, but in reality the facilities and the infrastructure were not that dissimilar from Ireland or Malta. As a country, Switzerland was simply gorgeous, and - given its size - I was amazed at how much open space there was. And the mountains...wow. I wasn't until the third day there that I realized that those "clouds" way up in the sky were not clouds, but instead the snowcaps of the Alps off in the distance. <br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>In front of the Chateau Chillon, on Lake Geneva, Switzerland</i></span></div>
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Aside from the snowy mountaintops, however, Switzerland was much greener than I imaged. It seemed like the entire countryside was farmland. The basketball was good, but after 4-5 years of long seasons abroad on the rubber courts in Ireland or the outdoor courts of Mauritius, I felt myself slipping. Truth be told, by 1999 I realized that I was a step slower than I had been, and I also realized I had little desire to play any more. Actually, I didn't mind the playing, but I was growing tired of people telling me when I had to lift weights, when I had to train, when I had to run, etc. Maybe I was just growing up, but I felt like I was moving past sport as a career. There was simply so much more I wanted to do. I ended my career on a bittersweet note, losing a close game in the Swiss playoffs to a bigger and more experienced team. I scored 39 points, however, and shot 9 of 11 from the three point line. Not a bad way to go out! <br />
My teammates and I met for a traditional meal of <span style="color: red;"><i><b><a href="http://www.justfoodnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Raclette-as-it-should-be-made.jpg" target="_blank">raclette</a></b></i></span> afterwards. We sat around a table grilling our own cheese and vegetables over a small flame with a paddle, and we tossed back more than a few glasses of crisp, local white wine. Looking around the room, I thought about the people at the table...I noted their smiling, laughing faces, and pictured myself from above pulling back from this house...to this town...to this country...to this continent...until I pictured myself as if from a satellite image, halfway across the planet earth from my home, sitting with people I never would have otherwise met, in a town I would have otherwise seen, eating a meal I had never heard of before...and all because of the sport of basketball.<br />
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Looking back, I feel that I satisfied my original goals. I certainly maximized my potential as a player. With limited skills and physical ability, I simply could not have gone further than I had. I had made a little money along the way, enough to make me feel justified to call myself a basketball professional. And I had also accomplished the more important goal of experiencing life...making new friends...seeing the world...and learning about myself and others every step of the way. I think back to that Phil Jackson quote - <i>there's more to basketball than basketball</i> - and proudly realize that I was lucky enough to have lived it.<br />
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And despite the horrors and trauma of 9/11, I took solace in the fact that I had made these friendships abroad and that they reached out to me with concern. Amidst a dark and disturbing day, it helped me remember the good in people, and that the world can be a very small place, and we its citizens are all connected in some way or another. And I thought about how most of my connections came from the game of basketball, and how lucky that made me...on that day in particular. <br />
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<u>RANDOM FINAL THOUGHTS, IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:</u><br />
BEST MEAL -- Fresh-caught branzino, Valetta, MALTA; squid in black bean sauce, Port Louis, MAURITIUS.<br />
BEST GAME -- 44 points vs. Hibernians for Qormi Club, 1997, MALTA; 42 points vs. Tolka Rovers for Marathon Limerick, 1996 IRELAND <br />
MOST POINTS -- 61 points vs. MSB for Marathon Limerick, 1996, IRELAND. <br />
BEST TEAM -- Mid-Sutton Baldoyle, Dublin, IRELAND. <br />
BEST BAR -- Nancy Blake's, Limerick IRELAND.<br />
BEST AMERICAN TEAMMATE -- Ian Stewart (Southern Illinois University), Limerick IRELAND. <br />
BEST LOCAL TEAMMATE -- Bernard Walsh, Mid-Sutton, IRELAND. <br />
FUNNIEST TEAMMATE -- Bernard Walsh, Mid-Sutton, IRELAND.<br />
BEST AMERICAN I PLAYED AGAINST -- Brian Holden (Drexel University), MALTA; Mike Campbell (LIU), SWITZERLAND; Barry Pierce (UPenn), IRELAND. <br />
STRANGEST MEAL -- Grilled fruit bat, MAURITIUS. <br />
BEST BEER -- Guinness, IRELAND. <br />
BEST DESSERT -- Movenpick ice cream, SWITZERLAND. <br />
BEST CHEESE -- Sheep's cheese, MALTA. <br />
BEST GYM TO PLAY IN -- Ta' Qali, MALTA.<br />
BEST HOBBY WHILE PLAYING -- Scuba Diving; MAURITIUS. <br />
BEST BEACH -- Jaco Beach, COSTA RICA; Pereybere, MAURITIUS. <br />
BEST COACH -- Jerome Westbrooks, Mid-Sutton, IRELAND; Bane Vukovic, Qormi, MALTA. <br />
LONGEST FLIGHT -- 24 hours, NYC to PARIS to MAURITIUS. <br />
BEST LOCAL SNACK -- Pastizzi and Kinnie soda, MALTA. <br />
SCARIEST ROADS -- COSTA RICA.<br />
WORST REFEREES -- IRELAND. <br />
MOST DANGEROUS FANS -- MAURITIUS.<br />
BEST SEASON -- 1995-96, Marathon Limerick, 36ppg, IRELAND. <br />
BEST YEAR -- 1996-97, Dublin to Malta to Mauritius. <br />
BEST APARTMENT -- 4 Dingli Road, Rabat, MALTA.<br />
BEST RUN -- Rabat to Dingli Cliffs, MALTA.<br />
BEST SIDE TRIP -- Malta to Cairo, 1997. <br />
BEST AIRPORT -- Malta. <br />
BEST SIGHTSEEING -- Valetta, MALTA, Grand Baie, MAURITIUS, Dublin, IRELAND, Montreux and Lake Geneva, SWITZERLAND.Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-39319023534208629362010-11-29T11:17:00.006-05:002020-09-21T19:41:12.622-04:00What the Buffalo Bills can teach us about the U.S. economy + more Miami...<div style="color: #999999;"><b>Economic lessons from the 2010 Buffalo Bills...</b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Here's a little-known secret that may irreparably damage my reputation for some readers: I am a closet Buffalo Bills fan. I don't want to be, believe me. But I must be, because each Sunday I find myself just a bit more interested in the Bills score than the others. I assume it's a remnant from my time growing up in Buffalo - a leftover feeling of camaraderie and hope from watching a horrible early 80's team (Joe Ferguson, really?) develop over time (#1 pick in '85: Bruce Smith, the addition of Jim Kelly at QB, the 2nd round pick of Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, etc.) into the early 90's juggernaut that, although it lost four straight Superbowls, still managed to get there each year. I suppose there's a loyalty that is built up over time when you watch something grow and develop, as I watched the 1984 to 1994 Bills, and you find yourself emotionally involved.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">This brings me to the present day Buffalo Bills. They are 2-9. Terrible by all accounts. And, unlucky to boot - they've lost three overtime games this year already. But do you know what? I love this team. I would pay money - if I still lived in Buffalo - to watch this scrappy bunch of no names take elite teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh to the brink. They have chemistry, they have grit, and they have hunger...and if management was smart, they would build around those intangibles as a foundation for something real. Keep Fitzpatrick as QB - the players love him, he's a gunslinger with balls and big heart - rather than give into the temptation to go for the glamor QB pick in the draft. Don't touch the skill positions - high character and class act Fred Jackson should never have been on the bench at all this year, shame on management for essentially discriminating against a small school player in favor of a guy like Marshawn Lynch....and you are set with WRs Lee Evans, Steve Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, and RB CJ Spiller as potential game breakers. Don't touch the secondary - there are some young, skilled studs back there. Instead, focus on the foundational, no-headline-grabbing drafting of offensive and defensive linemen...build around guys like Eric Wood and Kyle Williams and add depth to the core, trench areas that ultimately determine wins and losses. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Ok, so how does any of this relate to the U.S. economy, you ask? Last year's Bills - the 2009 version - were awful (just like the 2008-2009 U.S. economy), and it was clear to anyone objective that they needed line help (aka, nuts-and-bolts foundational stuff...like jobs to the U.S. economy). But instead, the Bills management (aka, the Federal Reserve?) made the decision to pursue a short-term "headline-grabbing" fix (aka, artificial stimulus) and signed wideout Terrell Owens in order to sell a few more season tickets rather than address their more important, long-term needs. Owens, of course, proved to be not much more than a one-and-done bust, along with the very weak 2009 incumbent QB Trent Edwards (aka, Tim Geithner? anyone, anyone...?)</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">So what's the lesson? Well, the 2009 Bills got nothing out of their artificial stimulus injection (Owens), much like the true, underlying U.S. economy got from its injection. This year, however, the analogy diverges. The 2010 Bills cut their dead weight (Edwards) and decided to let their down cycle run its course (much like a recession should be allowed to run its natural course) and along the way have actually built character and chemistry through hard, gritty play and effort. Conversely, the 2010 now-highly-politicized Federal Reserve decided to once again forgo addressing foundational issues in the U.S. economy (massive debt, jobs) and are going for the short-term, glamorous, headline-grabbing fix (aka, Quantitative Easing 2). And much like last year's Bills artificial Owens injection, it's pretty clear to me that this year's Fed QE2 artificial injection will have similar one-and-done results.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">In short, this year's Bills team is bouncing back from a rough patch all on its own - the spark is there, the chemistry is there. It's palpable, and they should be applauded.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">But this year's Federal Reserve is unfortunately going the way of the 2009 Bills - laden with an egotistical superstar (QE2) who distracts the mob from the real issues at hand for only a short while before they resurface again. Caveat Emptor, folks. The Fed could learn something valuable from this scrappy Bills team: recession (aka, rebuilding) takes time and is not a dirty word to be avoided. In fact, it can sow the seeds for greatness for years to come, just like the 1984-1985 Bills. Are you listening, Bernanke? It's Ryan Fitzpatrick on the line...and he's asking you to grow a pair. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
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</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>More Miami driving... </b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">My Dad taught me an important lesson about basketball referees when I was younger. "Good refs or bad refs don't really matter much," he explained. "It's the inconsistent refs who are most dangerous." His point was that players can adjust to a referee who makes consistently good calls or consistently bad calls...and to the referee who makes consistently tight calls or instead lets the ticky-tack stuff go. But a referee who is inconstent - good, then bad...tight, then loose - can ruin a game. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Which brings me to my most recent rant about Miami driving: Miami drivers are notoriously inconsistent, and it drives me consistently crazy. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><u>Inconsistency #1:</u> On surface roads (local streets), Miami drivers routinely crawl along at a snail's pace. No rush, no stress, clearly no friggin' job - or anything else important - to get to. As I have written before, a Miami driver rarely goes at a green light until a count of "one-mississippi...two-mississippi" has passed. 90% of the time I will honk at the guy ahead of me at a green light because the person is busy texting, or talking on the phone, or finishing off that coffee, or actually (I am not kidding) reading the paper while driving. So you could safely argue that Miami drivers are slow, sluggish, and unresponsive on surface roads. However, please explain why those very same drivers become <a href="http://www.shortsshortsshorts.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Evel-Knievel-wheelie.jpg">Evel-freakin-Knievel</a> as soon at they enter the highway, especially I-95 (just named the <a href="http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_c_palm_beach_county/west_palm_beach/i-95-most-dangerous-road-in-country">most dangerous road in America</a>, btw.)</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Look, I am a pretty fast driver at times, but I am generally efficient and safe (knock wood!) But I-95 scares the bejeezus out of me. As soon as I slow to 70mph (from 75mph, let's say) behind a slow-moving truck or someone that I need to pass, people whizz around me on both sides at ~90mph so that I can't actually change lanes. And usually, when these people buzz past (and they do "buzz" past - the lanes are notoriously narrow on I-95...hmmm, maybe there's a correlation between that fact and the mortality rate on this road, eh Miami?), they are also either on the phone or texting at the same time. WTF? Seriously, WTF?</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">So how can the same folks who fall asleep at green lights on surface roads also become speed-racing, texting psychopaths on the expressway? Miami, pay attention please: just like in basketball refereeing, inconsistency kills... </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><u>Inconsistency #2</u>: I have written about the innate laziness of the Miami driver before. For example, it must simply be too taxing - too damn hard - for people to actually flick their wrist and click that turn signal to indicate that they are changing lanes or suddenly slamming on the brakes and making a turn. I know, that seems like a lot to ask! In the routine course of daily driving, people never seem to use turn signals when they would be of actual benefit to the broader public. Instead, a level of "driving ESP' is required: <i>hmmm, is that guy pausing a touch...I dunno, I don't like the looks of his swerving....I think he's a sudden-turn candidate...</i><a href="http://www.moviesounds.com/redoct/crazyivan.mp3">CON-SONAR...CRAZY IVAN!</a> (<i>Which way did he turn, Jonesy? To the starboard, sir!!</i>) Anyway, the lack of turn-signaling leaves you constantly guessing on Miami roads.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Except for this amazing discovery...when a road naturally curves to the right or the left - meaning there is no choice on which way to go - do you know what Miami drivers will do? Yes, they will put on their turn signal!! WTF? Aaaaarrrrrrghhhhh. I mean, just shoot me. <i>Why the hell would you indicate that you are turning when we all know you are turning because the road is actually going that way and we are all turning too?!</i> Folks, if I sound a little distraught, it's because this stuff is enough to drive a person insane. Or maybe it already has. And bear in mind, I am not talking about one isolated incident here - I am telling you that I have seen it over and over and over. And given that 70% of Miami is Hispanic, I really think someone with driving experience in Cuba or South America needs to tell me the origin of all this senseless inconsistency. I just don't get it... </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
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</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>More Miami Heat...</b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Headed to the Heat-Wizards game tonight, and we'll see if anything has changed since <a href="http://cleanclearcalm.blogspot.com/2010/11/quick-thoughts-on-heat-celts-from.html">my last visit</a> (Heat-Celtics). I <a href="http://cleanclearcalm.blogspot.com/2010/07/constant-need-for-stimulus-courageous.html">wrote back in July</a> that the Heat would start 10-10 on the year, and I think they are 9-7 to this point, so clearly I will be routing for the Wizards tonight!</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">I caught a Chris Bosh post-game interview the other night (I think it was after Friday night's Sixers game) and I have to admit I genuinely like Bosh. I mean, who the hell ever knows the truth behind these things, but I get the sense that he's a good dude and a likable guy. (Unlike Wade and LeBron, who I think are probably behind-the-scenes @ssholes, to be honest.) </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Anyway, despite my feelings for Bosh, he said something so colossally stupid that I thought someone should have been fired over it. He told the sideline reporter (a ridiculous homer named <a href="http://www.nba.com/heat/multimedia/Broadcast_Bio_Jason_Jackson-279944-36.html">Jason Jackson</a> - just my opinion) that - and I am paraphrasing here - the Heat would be fine as long as he, Wade, and James just did the same stuff this year that they all did separately on different teams last year. Something like "as long as we do what we each did last year, we'll be fine." Whaaaaat? Chris, how ignorant are you? And how bad is Miami's coaching or managing if this message is being conveyed? How bad must things be if Bosh is also speaking for his teammates, and if they really all feel that excelling individually just like last year is the ticket to Miami's success this year? Folks, that's moronic. He advocated the construct of three superstars playing like individuals and then expecting a team to sprout out of it. Where is the team concept? Where is the buy-in from the stars? Where is the humility and the admission that these guys need to be flexible and feel each other out and even make some sacrifices along the way in order to arrive at something where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts? (Pssst, Chris....here's a hint: that's the definition of a team)</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Look, I have beaten the Heat dead-horse enough at this point, but I have to say that if the message from Heat management down to Heat coaches and down to Heat stars and down to Heat players is "just do what you did as individuals last year and we'll be fine," then the Miami Heat are in much, much bigger trouble than anyone might have thought. That attitude needs to be re-framed, in a big way. When stars come together, sacrifices are needed - someone has to take the charges, someone has to make the extra pass, someone has to box out...and it can't just be the two other role players on the court at the time.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">We'll see how it looks tonight, but after Bosh's comments the other day, I remain a non-believer... In fact, the Miami Tepid jokes are too obvious at this point. Let's get classical instead and just go with the Miami Hubris.</div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-90761735567361979342010-11-16T15:05:00.005-05:002020-09-21T19:41:47.300-04:00Seriously? That's just pathetic, Miami...<div style="color: #666666;">In case you didn't see <a href="http://cleanclearcalm.blogspot.com/2010/11/quick-thoughts-on-heat-celts-from.html">my review of last Thursday's Heat-Celtics game</a>, I took the Heat to task for being terrible (deservedly) and took the Heat fans to task for being clueless (maybe a bit harshly). Well, apparently the Heat organization also has some issues with their fans, and maybe my assessment was more accurate and less jaded than I originally thought. Apparently the Heat fans need to be taught how to actually...be fans. Has this ever been done before? Has an organization ever printed a "how to" primer and also posted an accompanying video? I mean, that's embarrassing! And don't take my word for it...<a href="http://www.nba.com/heat/tickets/heat_fan_up_miami_2010.html">check it out</a> yourself. Below, see the aforementioned "Fan Up, Miami" (aka, <i>How to be a fan at an NBA game, you clueless bozos</i>) print out:</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EVYVkBSQZNY/TOLgswi1OMI/AAAAAAAAAZQ/y3zlODv--P8/s1600/600_fanup_generic_page_1_101015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EVYVkBSQZNY/TOLgswi1OMI/AAAAAAAAAZQ/y3zlODv--P8/s640/600_fanup_generic_page_1_101015.jpg" width="492" /></a></div><br />
<div style="color: #666666;">Maybe next year's version will include definitions of boxing out, weak side defense, taking a charge, the "pass that leads to an assist," and working the shot clock...not to mention important discussion topics like "when to boo when your superstars take terrible shots," why millionaire ballplayers - even the bench guys - should hit open 15-footers, "when to boo when your other superstar dribbles 100 times at halfcourt while no one else moves," "when to boo when your big money power forward gets dunked on by a point guard," and of course "when to boo when your superstar whines about getting fouled, does not run back on D, and his man hits another wide-open spot-up three." Oh, and they might also want to offer a fan seminar on "how not to be fooled by fancy dunks and trick passes - especially those that continually lead to unforced turnovers - because there are no style points in basketball." Miami's NBA action...er...um...amazing kinda happens here...(!!)...<i>pssst, what time is our dinner reservation on South Beach? We gotta leave early</i>...</div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-68690825393214578392010-11-12T14:16:00.001-05:002020-09-21T19:41:47.299-04:00Quick thoughts on Heat-Celts from a LeHater...So I went to my first Heat game of the "Big Three" season last night...and pretty much cackled my way through it. My thoughts on the evening are below. Note that I have not read anything about the game as yet this morning, because I want my views to be original and "untainted"...and then we'll see how it matches up with the experts.<br />
<br />
Truth be told, I am not really a LeHater at all. It's a free country. The guy can sign and play wherever he likes, and he is one heck of a athlete. Of course, in this age of media hype, it's sometimes hard to remember that he really hasn't done or won anything, and that he is probably much, much, much less "mentally tough" than all his supposed comparisons, like Magic, MJ, Bird, Kobe, and even The Durantula and DWade. But, whatever...I can easily put my disappointment in LeBron's "decision" (aka, the signature, pariah moment representative of all the frustrations we have with today's spoiled, me-first, who-cares-if-we-win-I-have-a-sneaker-contract-anyway, professional athletes) aside and just try to enjoy the game. After all, the potential for take-your-breath-away moments is off the charts with the 2010-2011 Miami Heat, right? So, rather than focus on LeBron and the whole Big Three distraction, let's just pretend to block out names and faces and storylines and think about last night's contest as between the home team in white and the visiting team in green. In other words, let's just focus on the basketball.<br />
<br />
However, when you do that - when you try to put aside the personalities and the noise and the media hype - here's what you are unfortunately left with (last night, anyway): terrible, terrible basketball. The contrast in the teams was striking. Over and over again the Celtics would move the ball, work the shot clock, make the extra pass, and get great shots. And in response on the other end, time and time again, the Heat (invariably either LeBron or Wade) would respond with a rushed, off the mark, terrible shot about five seconds into the shot clock. Just when you'd think, "ok, the Heat are veterans...they will play off one another and try to do what the Celtics did and try to match them pass for pass and execution for execution," the Heat would come down and do something rushed or boneheaded or just...amateur. It was actually embarrassing and a little uncomfortable. I am not kidding. To respond to the Celtics "swing the ball around the horn, final gorgeous touch pass to a cutting guy for a lay-up and the ball never hit the ground once" with the Heat's "dribble dribble dribble one on one move shoot" was just pathetic. And it happened far too often. What were these guys thinking?<br />
<br />
Anyway, that's the real disappointment here - it's that the Heat are actually playing crappy ball. Uninspired, I-have-no-idea-how-to-play, there's-no-leadership-at-all basketball. I know LeBron and Wade are more than capable of amazing things, and I assume the 4th quarter had its moments since the game ended with a much closer score than when we left at the end of the 3rd. That ability to explode is what will ultimately make them fun to watch sometimes and dangerous to play all the time. But it just so happens that the moments in between are just...awful. I saw turnovers, air balls, and forced shots that looked like they were out of 6th grade CYO. Again, what are these guys thinking?<br />
<br />
I guess I just assumed that I would hate the ballers but really respect the beautiful game they played. But if last night is any indication, we may be left with hating the ballers <u>and</u> hating their game. What a waste that would be. Hey, I expected growing pains. I <a href="http://cleanclearcalm.blogspot.com/2010/07/constant-need-for-stimulus-courageous.html">wrote about it in July and even predicted a 10-10 start</a> to the season. (They're 5-4 as of writing.) As we know, All-Star games are not usually flowing, beautiful events with tons of team chemistry. And Miami's starting five is now basically an All-Star team. It's hard to mesh those styles and egos, for sure. But I never expected them to look like they had never played the game before. I never expected them to be terrible. <br />
<br />
Granted, I am also putting a major microscope on one game...and it's very early into the season. I understand that my commentary should be set against that backdrop and that you shouldn't expect to derive too much accuracy from a sample size of one. But it was also a nationally-televised game against the team that beat the Heat in the opening game of the season, and it was at home. In other words, it was a "statement game" nonetheless. "Players" show up for that game. Big Time. I expected a statement from supposed "all-World" guys like Wade and LeBron. But the only statement those guys seemed to be making was "what time is our reservation for dinner on South Beach tonight?" And on the other side of the court, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo made a few statements of their own. To whit: "We made our own 'Decision.' The decision to be the alpha dogs on the east coast. So sit down and shut up." Good for them. The bottom line is that they played harder, better, and smarter. They deserved to win, and they exposed the Miami Heat as the bunch of independent, selfish, frauds...at least at this point in the season. From a purist standpoint, I would love to watch some good basketball down here, rather than a glorified "And 1" pick-up game. So I hope the Heat get it together, I really do. <br />
<br />
Let's also talk about the Miami crowd for a second. I have nothing against the beautiful people and celebrities who are now descending on Miami to bear "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RK4krjytH8">Quitness</a>" to the Big Three and the non-existent Twelve. After all, it's high entertainment and the buzz in the air is very cool. (Although you can feel the buzz evaporating from the area faster than it left the mosquito splattered on your windshield.) But I do have a bone to pick. In my opinion, the best crowds are knowledgeable crowds, and I also feel that there's a give-and-take between player and spectator in those optimal environments. Meaning: the best crowds actually "participate" in the game at times, and don't just consume the action as pure spectators. This is classic Madison Square Garden when the team is good. Actually, even when the teams are bad in NYC, the crowd participates. Miami falls down flat in that department.<br />
<br />
Here's a prime example of what I mean: At one point in the 2nd quarter, DWade drove to the bucket and missed a pretty difficult and pretty well-defended twisting lay-up attempt. When the ref didn't bail him out (remember the 2006 Finals, btw? DWade got more calls than a stripper walking by a construction site), he made a few dramatic gestures (but avoided a "T") toward the ref and hung around the basket for a few seconds to bitch and moan. Of course, the Celtics corralled the rebound, pitched the outlet to Rajon Rondo, and sprinted down the court. Rondo found Ray Allen (Wade's defensive responsibility) spotting up, hit him in stride, and Allen drained a three. It all happened in about 2.7 seconds. Predictably, the crowd groaned and someone nearby said "damn, Ray Allen is killing us." No...incorrect, sir. It's not Ray Allen killing you. Right there, on that play, DWade was killing you. In fact, I could almost imagine the response if the game were in NYC and DWade played for the Knicks. I could almost hear the hypothetical Knick fan a few feet down from me with the Brooklyn accent yell out "Yo, DWade...howzabout you stop bitchin' and run back on friggin' D you friggin' pansy...you guy Allen is killin' us...howzabout you sprint back and guard him in transition?!" See, that's the difference. That's what I mean by knowledge and "participation." Not to mention accountability. Miami fans love the pretty dunks and the fast break lay-ups, but they don't seem to appreciate the development of a play, or the little stuff away from the ball that actually makes the game what it is. It's a shame. Hopefully they get there some day. After all, this team could use a few more people getting in the face of these supposed "untouchable" Big Three superstars. They could use to be dressed-down by the fans now and again. If they just only knew how and when...Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-43936425083561377492010-11-11T14:18:00.002-05:002011-09-23T12:08:03.531-04:00Dear Visitor to Miami: The Follow-Up...<div style="color: #999999;">So here's some interesting timing...right after I posted my "<a href="http://cleanclearcalm.blogspot.com/2010/11/dear-visitor-to-miami-its-just-easier.html">Guide to Miami</a>" the other day, two similar items caught my eye. The first (published one day after mine) is from the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> called "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704141104575588573986061194.html">An Insider's Guide to Miami</a>," and you'll find some interesting overlap. The second (published three days after mine) is from ESPN and mentions a particular <a href="http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/index?id=5781743">Miami steakhouse</a> that I also "reviewed." The full text of both is below. (Gives me some credibility, right? ...right?) </div><div class="articleHeadlineBox headlineType-newswire"><br />
<h1>Castles in the Sand </h1></div><br />
<div class="articlePagination" id="article_pagination_top"></div><div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-G"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img alt="[CONCIERGE]" border="0" height="212" hspace="0" src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OD-AB849_CONCIE_G_20101104015127.jpg" vspace="0" width="320" /> <cite></cite> <br />
<div class="targetCaption"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Red Light in the Blu Motel offers excellent dockside manatee-watching.</span></div><div class="targetCaption"><br />
</div></div></div></div><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=4393642508356137749" name="U401447578072DW"></a>Ever since savvy developers began turning this riverside farmland into a millionaire's playground (and middle-class dream destination) in the 1920s, Miami has been equally built on style and scam. It's become a tradition for strivers and refugees arriving here to reinvent themselves—and, in the process, reinvent the city. <br />
Miami is elastic, always retaking its shape, whether in the wake of the 1926 hurricane that flattened its beaches, or the "Scarface" era of cocaine violence in the early 1980s. The city would have to wait another decade before the South Beach renaissance would transform a tropical war zone into a hipster paradise.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704141104575588573986061194.html#" onclick="dj.module.slideshowPlayer.tabplay('SLIDESHOW08','SB10001424052748703805704575594663896111450');return false;"><img alt="[SB10001424052748703805704575594663896111450]" border="0" height="200" hspace="0" src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OD-AB850_CONCIE_DV_20101104015215.jpg" vspace="0" width="132" /></a><br />
<div class="insetContent embedType-interactive insetCol3wide"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit insetTarget"><cite></cite><span style="font-size: xx-small;">The Standard Spa, Miami Beach</span></div><div class="insettipUnit insetTarget"></div><div class="insettipUnit insetTarget"></div></div></div><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=4393642508356137749" name="U401447578072YT"></a>In Miami's latest reincarnation, artists have migrated from an increasingly out-priced South Beach to cheaper spaces across Biscayne Bay, reinvigorating mainland neighborhoods walloped by the condo bust and financial downturn. The annual carnival of art and money that is Art Basel Miami Beach (playing out across the city Dec. 2-5) is just the high point of a cultural scene that's remaking the peninsula yet again.<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=4393642508356137749" name="U401447578072ZVB"></a>South Beach as buzz destination has largely been supplanted by areas like the Design District and MiMo (for '50s and '60s Miami Modern, the ongoing architectural vogue), filled with restaurants both haute and homey, as well as plenty of funky boutiques and clubs. <br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=4393642508356137749" name="U401468183316FGI"></a>The Wynwood area plays home to sleek galleries and warehouse walls exploding with graffiti murals. Further south, there are more cultural nuclei in Little Havana, where nostalgia-chic clubs and galleries such as Hoy Como Ayer and Cuba Ocho vibrate with rhythms from new and old exiles. In North Miami, artist studios and independent galleries—as well as thrift stores and Caribbean markets—orbit the Museum of Contemporary Art.<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=4393642508356137749" name="U401447578072DBE"></a>Cubans may still be the largest and most visible group among the 69% of the city that is Hispanic, but more recent influxes of Colombians, Venezuelans, Argentines and Brazilians have brought new flavors and <br />
dramas, as well as new candidates to soak up this city—and then rebuild it from scratch.<br />
<cite class="tagline">—Jordan Levin</cite><br />
<h6>The Restaurateur</h6><div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-BV"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img alt="[Miami concierge]" border="0" height="106" hspace="0" src="http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/HC-GP282_Bernst_BV_20101102111129.gif" vspace="0" width="124" /> <br />
<div class="targetCaption"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Michelle Bernstein</span></div></div></div></div>James Beard Award winner and co-owner of restaurants Michy's on the Biscayne corridor and Sra. Martinez in the Design District <br />
<b>Southern Fish Camp:</b> Red Light in the Blu Motel. This two-year-old cafe has a great late-night menu, including wahoo fish dip and burgers, and an intimate bar scene. Excellent dockside manatee-watching. 7700 Biscayne Blvd., edlightmiami.com <br />
<b>Catch of the Day:</b> Garcia's Seafood Grille & Fish Market. Just pure sepia-tone Florida, and it's Cuban, too. You can dock your boat, jump out and have a fab meal. Everything is super simple, fried or grilled. I love the caramel-y sweet fried plantains with grilled lobster. 398 N.W. North River Drive, <a class="" href="http://garciasseafoodgrill.com/" target="_blank">garciasseafoodgrill.com</a> <br />
<b>China Grill:</b> Hakkasan. Every Jewish girl loves Chinese, and this place is my go-to. They have Maine lobster with chive blossoms and they make their own tofu. It's inside the Fontainebleau. 4441 Collins Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.hakkasan.com/miami" target="_blank">hakkasan.com/miami</a> <br />
<b>Fine Dining-in-Residence:</b> Casa Tua. It's a vine-covered mansion that feels like it's in the Mediterranean. Talk about sexy and romantic—it's like eating in a luxe, secluded private home with a courtyard. 1700 James Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.casatualifestyle.com/" target="_blank">casatualifestyle.com</a> <br />
<b>Teen-and-Mom Shop:</b> Rebel.This shop is really fun. You can get something super sexy or more covered up. They sell pieces by hip clothing lines and local designers. 6669 Biscayne Blvd., 305-758-2369<br />
<h6>The Connoisseur</h6><div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-BV"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img alt="[Miami concierge]" border="0" height="82" hspace="0" src="http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/HC-GP281_Wolfso_BV_20101102111019.gif" vspace="0" width="124" /> <br />
<div class="targetCaption"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Mitchell "Micky" Wolfson Jr.</span></div></div></div></div>Art and design collector; founder of The Wolfsonian-Florida International University Museum<br />
<b>Garage Sale:</b> Carol Jazzar Contemporary Art. This independent curator's gallery, housed in the owner's garage has audacity, style, intelligence and it's not so easy to find, which makes it fun. 158 N.W. 91st St., <a class="" href="http://www.cjazzart.com/" target="_blank">cjazzart.com</a> <br />
<b>Embarrassment of Riches:</b> Las Tias. All of the opulent design and home accessory treasures of the former oligarchs' palaces seem to end up for sale at the baroque emporium co-owned by real estate agent and social diva Esther Percal. 2834 North Miami Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.lastias.com/" target="_blank">lastias.com</a> <br />
<b>Diva Needs:</b> C. Madeleine's. No longer Miami's best-kept fashion secret, this 10,000-square-foot designer vintage store draws the likes of ladies Madonna and Gaga. 13702 Biscayne Blvd., <a class="" href="http://www.cmadeleines.com/" target="_blank">cmadeleines.com</a> <br />
<b>Poseidon Adventure:</b> Stoneage Antiques. An ocean's worth of deep-sea nautical curios and other memorabilia, from diving helmets and cannons to sleigh bells and stuffed polar bears. A Mad-Hatter's wonderland. 3236 N.W. South River Drive, <a class="" href="http://www.stoneage-antiques.com/" target="_blank">stoneage-antiques.com</a> <br />
<b>Puppet Mastery:</b> Pablo Cano Studio & Gallery. Artist Pablo is a genius of fantasy, known for his charming and huge marionettes that would give Julie Taymor pause.Address by request, <a class="" href="http://www.canoart.com/" target="_blank">canoart.com</a> <br />
<h6>The Writer</h6><div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-BV"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img alt="[Miami concierge]" border="0" height="90" hspace="0" src="http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/HC-GP280_Dantic_BV_20101101184937.gif" vspace="0" width="124" /> <br />
<div class="targetCaption"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Edwidge Danticat</span></div></div></div></div>MacArthur "Genius" Award–winning author of "Brother, I'm Dying"; Miami resident<br />
<b>Bakery and Cafe:</b> Buena Vista Bistro. They specialize in classic French fare. You can have a meeting here, or just breakfast with the girls. Its owners give my daughters free Madeleines. 4582 N.E. Second Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.buenavistabistro.com/" target="_blank">buenavistabistro.com</a> <br />
<b>Designer Treasures:</b> Angel's Vintage Boutique. A mother-daughter team scour estate sales in Florida and beyond to pack this funky little shop with archival designer wear (think '60s Chanel frocks). 4308 N.E. Second Ave., 305-573-4308<br />
<b>Voudou Culture:</b> Libreri Mapou. Jan Mapou's Little Haiti landmark is a true cultural center, selling Haitian books, music and beaded voodoo flags. The scene vibrates with live drumming and poetry readings. 5919 N.E. 2nd Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.librerimapou.com/" target="_blank">librerimapou.com</a> <br />
<b>Haiti Haven:</b> Tap Tap. This little hangout has great ambiance and extraordinary murals on the walls. I love the Erzulie room, presided over by the Haitian goddess of love. The rum punch and kremas (a sweet, lethal cream liquor) are exceptional. 819 Fifth St., <a class="" href="http://www.taptaprestaurant.com/" target="_blank">taptaprestaurant.com</a> <br />
<b>Story Villa:</b> Books & Books in Coral Gables. This is one of the country's leading independent bookstores: a hub for Miami literati, with readings almost nightly, and an airy courtyard restaurant. 265 Aragon Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.booksandbooks.com/" target="_blank">booksandbooks.com</a> <br />
<h6>The Collector</h6>Art patron, gallerist and co-founder (with husband Carlos de la Cruz) of the De La Cruz Collection Contemporary Art Space in Miami<br />
<b>Glass Menagerie:</b> Fratelli Lyon. You eat surrounded by design at this Italian restaurant with sleek, bright, hyper-contemporary décor, in a glass bubble filled with top Italian wares from companies like Driade, Vitra and Maxalto. The furniture is always the latest. 4141 N.E. Second Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.fratellilyon.com/" target="_blank">fratellilyon.com</a> <br />
<b>Real Deal:</b> Michael's Genuine Food & Drink. Michael Schwartz's restaurant offers unexpected takes on American fare. The desserts, in particular, are mouth-boggling puzzles of flavor. 130 N.E. 40th St., <a class="" href="http://www.michaelsgenuine.com/" target="_blank">michaelsgenuine.com</a> <br />
<b>Cuban Classic:</b> Puerto Sagua. The simple family-style eatery has nourished Cuba nostalgists since opening in 1968. Check out the Scull Sisters' whimsical sculpted 3-D mural of Havana in the day. 700 Collins Ave., 305-673-1115<br />
<b>Art and Sole:</b> Christian Louboutin. An intricate installation of colored stockings guards the entry to one of the Design District's latest boutiques. 155 N.E. 40th St., <a class="" href="http://www.christianlouboutin.com/" target="_blank">christianlouboutin.com</a> <br />
<b>Basel Tops:</b> Marni. Art world denizens come straight from the airport to shop at this outpost from the family-owned, high-fashion store. Art Basel is practically a Marni runway show. 3930 N.E. Second Ave., <a class="" href="http://www.marni-international.com/" target="_blank">marni-international.com</a><br />
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<span class="date"><b> Monday, November 8, 2010<br />
</b></span> <span class="headline">Red, The Steakhouse, attracts LeBron, D-Wade</span><br />
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<tr><td rowspan="2" width="5"><spacer height="1" type="block" width="5"></spacer></td><td width="576"><img alt="Red, The Steakhouse " border="0" height="324" src="http://sports.espn.go.com/photo/2010/1108/pg2_red_steakhouse1_576.jpg" vspace="4" width="576" /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>If you're in Miami and hoping to sneak a peek at the Heat off the court, try Red, The Steakhouse, in South Beach, which has been a favorite eatery for Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.<br />
The upscale steakhouse, which opened in 2009 and is an offshoot of the original Red, The Steakhouse, in suburban Cleveland, made it to Miami before LeBron, but James' move to the Heat hasn't hurt.<br />
"LeBron was into the Red in Cleveland, but has been to the Miami Red more frequently," said Peter Vauthy, who is executive chef and one of the proprietors of Red.<br />
Though the Cleveland location was a go-to spot for James, there haven't been any negative aftershocks because, Vauthy said, the Ohio location isn't near the Cavaliers' arena.<br />
Red's shrimp carbonara pasta and chicken is a LeBron favorite. Meat eaters can follow the lead of Wade, who likes the C.A.B. prime steaks, Kobe beef, pastas, seafood and fresh lemonade.<br />
"Since we opened, at least 30 different times we've had members of the Heat in Red, along with many current and former NBA players," Vauthy said.<br />
Wade has been a regular since the restaurant opened. Chris Paul, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Hedo Turkoglu, Rudy Gay and Shaquille O'Neal have also sampled the fare.<br />
Players can be difficult to spot because they often eat in a VIP section behind drawn curtains. They also usually arrive after normal dinner hours.<br />
When Wade walks into the restaurant, "Everyone [gets] a bit starstruck and you could see the guests at the restaurant buzzing about it," Vauthy said.<br />
The restaurant, which is owned in part by former NBA player Charles Oakley, is also frequented by NFL and NHL players. As the Heat's season gets into full swing, Vauthy anticipates an uptick.<br />
"I'm sure we'll see an upswing due to the buzz and personality of having LeBron as one of our guests," he said.Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-75093296826871688522010-11-05T17:15:00.008-04:002011-09-23T12:08:03.531-04:00Dear Visitor to Miami: It's just easier this way...<div style="color: #999999;">It's amazing what happens when you live in a tourist destination. People ask for advice about where to stay, what to do, and where to eat ...all..the...time. This happened in New York City too, but I assume that most visitors to The City have more than one New York friend, so the volume of requests I got was never too overbearing. But Miami? Wow. Based on the yearly peppering of questions (usually more when it's winter up north, 'tis the season for getaways...), I am truly flattered that people value my opinion so highly. Either that, or they just don't know anyone else. Hell, I don't value my own opinion that much, so it's surely the latter. Regardless, it gets redundant to keep typing these emails in response to inbound Miami/South Beach visitors. So, I thought it might be easier for all involved (actually, that's a lie...it's only easier for me) if I jotted down the main ideas and suggestions, and then directed people to this page. Also, I recommend that visitors check out <a href="http://www.miaminewtimes.com/">Miami New Times</a> for great reviews and updates on what's going on in town. (Search their "Best Of..." section for mainstream stuff like "Best Spa in Miami" or random stuff like "Best Buffalo Wings in Miami." The archive goes back years and it's awesome - I use it all the time.)</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">With that said, here are a couple of key disclosures before we dig in. <u>First</u> and foremost, Brielle and I have a five-month old daughter... if you do the math, that means that it has been nine months of pregnancy and almost six months of actual baby responsibility (i.e. one year and three months) since we have gone out!! (Actually, that is only partly true - we are beginning to "re-emerge," but in a much more chilled out, early night, light bites kind of way.) <u>Second</u> caveat: Brielle has always been generally "cooler" than me, so keep that in mind while you read. This means that you won't find any answers to "what's the best nightclub at 5am?" questions here. And now that I think about it, I hope she doesn't know the answer to that either. But the difference is, she has a friend she can ask that question of...and I certainly don't. And <u>third</u>, ummm, I am almost 39. So, again, the "all-nighters, binge-drinking, dance-on-tables" questions are better suited for someone else. <u>Four</u>...As a New Yorker, I basically scoffed at anything involving Times Square. I saw it as a Tourist Trap, in capital letters. In fact, traps abound all over Manhattan and the locals know this and would probably agree. And, truth be told, South Beach = Times Square. Meaning, I can partake in it, but I am not a huge fan. So most of my recommendations will be slightly-off-center or non-mainstream to begin with, although I will try to comment on some of those "big name" spots as well. <u>Fifth</u>, I will unfortunately limit myself (most of the time) to places I have firsthand experience with for all my recommendations, so I'm sorry if you don't find The Delano Hotel or The Lowes reviewed here (for example). I mean, we live here - when would I ever stay at the Delano? But if I have some experience with the place, or a friend stayed there or ate there, that's fair game and I will comment but please don't assume it's the gospel truth since my experience will only be in passing. <u>Sixth</u>...if you don't know me, I have done a fair amount of traveling (check the <a href="http://batory.blogspot.com/">other blog</a> on the right of this page somewhere) and I have a tendency toward more tried-and-true local stuff, rather than hot-and-trendy flash-in-the-pan stuff. Oh, and <u>last one</u>...since 50% of the people who ask me for advice are dudes coming down for a "guy's weekend" or a bachelor party, I might mention the...er...scenery (aka, women) every now and again. So if you are reading this and you are my wife, or if you are just female, please don't shoot the messenger. I am not a misogynist, I am just playing the averages with who will be reading this blog... Ok, cool? All set with the warnings? Here we go.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Mainstream Hotels:</b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.thebetsyhotel.com/">The Betsy Hotel</a> - I am sucker for the boutique, small luxury hotel experience, and the Besty fits the bill. Amazing location, across the street from the beach with only a tree-lined park separating you from the dunes...classy bar area...great steakhouse (BLT) within...great "nightclub" (B Bar)...great rooftop...walking distance to everything, so leave the car rental at the airport...best breakfast on SoBe is next door at The Front Porch...and we have a hook-up at the hotel if you need one. Solid choice for everyone, but more classy and staid than your normal "South Beach parrrr-tay" spot. Perfect call for you if you are 35 and have taste. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.sagamorehotel.com/">The Sagamore</a> - A little hipper and "loungier" than the Betsy, but also small and intimate...stayed there a couple years ago when we were actually still New Yorkers...another "boutique"-type place...classy, nice rooms...small, "loungey" pool area...a great call if you are 25, but a bit more sophisticated, or you're 30. Or 35-40 and hip. And you can walk to everything. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1547402722"><br />
</a></div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.fontainebleau.com/">Fountainbleau</a> - A sprawling, huge hotel....I have never stayed but I have oft-visited...looks to me like there is something for everyone...done in true "over-the-top" Vegas fashion, so it's just too much for me to take in...but they have great deals sometimes since they have so many rooms, and there are a bunch of pools, restaurants (Blade, Hakkasan, Scarpetta) and clubs (LIV) inside the place...but bear in mind that it's up the beach a bit - 44th and Collins - and you'll need to taxi down to South Beach proper if you plan on eating anywhere but the hotel itself. Since it's so huge, and there are so many options in terms of places to eat, I am guessing that it works for kids right up to the geriatric. But it's overkill for me. Too much.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.gansevoortmiamibeach.com/">The Gansevoort</a> - Classy 25-40 year-old chill vibe...STK restaurant in-house, and the Plunge rooftop "nightclub" and pool is great...Also there's one of the nicest pools in SoBe on the 3rd floor that is better suited for families than the Plunge pool - we met friends for lunch there...it's a huge, wide pool with endless views, no trendy nonsense but a fair share of "beautiful people." 24th and Collins, so it's a bit north of the "action" but still an easy cab ride or walk.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.starwoodhotels.com/whotels/property/overview/index.html?propertyID=1599">The W</a> - 23rd and Collins...park my bike here every Sunday when I ride over and then run the beach...Boasts Mr. Chow, the Wall Bar, the Living Room Bar, and a new Spanish tapas place that is legit but might not be able to compete with Mr. Chow (unfortunately)...hopping pool scene and always busy (people using Starwood points, maybe?), and be forewarned - I consider myself a reasonably attractive and fit guy, and my wife is very attractive and fit, but I felt like an overweight, pale, old schlub at the pool a few weeks back. So if you are sensitive in that way, this might not be the spot to let it hang loose. Beautiful people only. (Although maybe it was just over the Columbus Day wknd?) Anyway, I told Brielle that I don't ever want to go there again. In fact, we need to find the "ugly/fat pool scene," so I can feel good about myself instead. The W was rough on the ego. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.ritzcarlton.com/en/Properties/SouthBeach/Default.htm?utm_campaign=09065&src=ps">The Ritz-Carlton</a> - Our friends Pete & Kim stayed here and their room was awesome...suite overlooking the beach...big place, though, and it's the Ritz, so don't expect the intimate, boutique feel...also, I heard the Buffalo Bills stayed here for their games last year...for what it's worth.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.fourseasons.com/miami/">Four Seasons </a>- Downtown...I can see the pool from my office window. Looks nice, and plenty of business folks stay here. Also has an in-house L.A. Fitness/Reebok gym, which is a plus. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.mandarinoriental.com/miami/">The Mandarin Oriental</a> - Also downtown, but on Brickell Key...basically its own island, very cool...can see the pool area and the "beach" they created from our offices...awesome spa - make sure you ask for Richard Herrera is you want a legit sports/swedish massage with no bullsh*t - he's the best...I have heard Azul, the in-house restaurant - has great sushi...Apparently this is where the Jennifer Aniston/John Mayer story broke, and supposedly those telephoto lens shots of them at the pool/beach were talking from my building - hell, maybe even our conference room on the 27th floor...solid, solid spot...great if you want to explore downtown and go to a Heat game and actually get a full night's sleep (unlike on South Beach), but also be aware the cab ride to and from SoBe will probably ding you like $25. But it's closer to the airport so maybe it's all a wash in the end.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/miamj-jw-marriott-marquis-hotel-miami/">JW Marriott Marquis</a> - Brand new downtown hotel...looks incredible...not much else to say...let me know if you go.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Slightly off-the-beaten path hotels:</b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.standardhotels.com/miami/">The Standard</a> - I love the Standard...boutique hotel, so it's small and intimate, but in an effort to be hip it kind of comes off a little <a href="http://www.thebreman.org/exhibitions/online/1000kids/Bauhaus.JPG">Bauhaus/industrial</a> to me...but for the price and the off-the-path location, I love it...solid restaurant, fun nightly stuff like "drinks and bingo night" at the bar/lounge, you can run the Venetian Causeway (the road we live on) when you stay here, you can use their gym (famous for their yoga and sauna) and you can walk to hidden gem local restaurants like Joe Allen, Casela, and B&B...their pool is also amazing and (ahem) European - yes, that means "topless" sometimes...however, note that The Standard is ON THE BAY, not the beach...I love it for that, and you can just cab to dinner and clubs, but others might find it too far off the path.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.cadethotel.com/home.html">The Cadet</a> - A straight-up value call...a block inland from The Delano...so you need to walk two blocks (and cross Collins Ave) to get to the beach...nice, clean place, solid rooms, no frills...if you plan on going out to eat and spending all day at the beach and you don't need a view of the ocean in your room, stay here and save the money. And yes, Brielle and I have stayed here. Also next door to Casa Tua, which is in the top four or five best restaurants in the area (...in no order, Casa Tua, Prime 112, Il Gabbiano, Zuma, Michy's).</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.sanctuarysobe.com/">Sanctuary Hotel</a> - No idea about this place, but it actually looks cool based on the website...and the restaurant OLA is very popular...another one of the value plays - a couple blocks off the beach = probably 50% less per room than the places directly on the beach...let me know if you ever go.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.epichotel.com/epic-return/index.html?WT.mc_n=Epic_Google_NAME_EPIC_RETURN&WT.mc_t=Hotel_PPC_2&WT.srch=1">Epic (Kimpton Hotels)</a> - Only mentioning this one because I was there last week for dinner at Zuma (amazing...) and it had a cool downtown vibe and there's always a crazy nice yacht parked out front along the Miami River...and there were some pretty hip-looking and attractive people there waiting for valet car service. Heard the rooms are great, but no first hand experience.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.icmiamihotel.com/">The Intercontinental</a> - Downtown, perfect if you are here on an overnight and going to a Heat game or a concert in Bayfront Park...Believe it or not, I am 90% sure the New Orleans Saints stayed here during the Superbowl since I kept seeing the Saints team bus parked out front.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Off-the-beaten path hotels:</b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://doubletree1.hilton.com/en_US/dt/hotel/MIABSDT-Doubletree-Grand-Hotel-Biscayne-Bay-Florida/index.do">Doubletree Grand Biscayne Bay</a> - Ok, look...this is the inside scoop - my family stays here when they visit. And if it's good enough for them...right? It works for us because it's walking distance (across the drawbridge and over the bay) to our place on the Venetian Islands, but you also have a great park nearby, and you can walk to local delis and diners, and to Heat games too...my family says the pool is actually really nice with views over the Bay and out toward South Beach...so I ask you, Why Not? I have seen $109 per night in summer and $250 per night over Christmas...about $15-20 to taxi to South Beach and roughly 3.5 miles to put your toes in the sand...also, since you are on the downtown side of the Bay, you are much closer to some of the truly hidden gems in Miami - the downtown and design district (Wynnwood) restaurants and clubs...finally, I bike past this place a few times a week, and all the college teams that play UM (last month it was the West Virginia Women's Soccer Team Bus) stay here...and during the Superbowl there were two buses out front marked "New Orleans Saints Family Bus."</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/miabb-miami-marriott-biscayne-bay/">Marriott Biscayne Bay</a> - See above, they are right next door to one another. I honestly confuse them all the time, so I am not sure if one is better than the other...</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Mainstream Miami Dinner</b>:</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.casatualifestyle.com/restaurant.htm">Casa Tua</a> - stunning...it's hard to even see this hideaway restaurant in its house-like location on a very quiet, high-hedged & protected South Beach corner, but the $200k cars parked on the side street give it away...think about a beach house, veranda feel (as if you were with James Bond in the Bahamas)...fitting to mention Bond since the women hostesses here might be the most attractive women on all of South Beach...Italian food - crazy expensive...special occasions only, and this is not just the beautiful crowd, this is the beautiful and insanely wealthy crowd...no cheese factor, although it is a bit quiet and stuffy compared to other Miami venues, although I have heard the upstairs bar is a hell of a scene...first class all the way, though...for the 30-50 year-old crew with deep pockets...dress appropriately (the one place that I would probably not wear sneakers on the beach, and would probably add a sport coat to a button-down and jeans)...oh, and don't pull up in a Yugo.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.mylesrestaurantgroup.com/">Prime 112 and Prime Italian</a> - I really, really want to hate this place...the cheese factor (2-3 bright yellow Ferraris parked out front at all times and 50-yr-old, tan guys with open shirts, gold chains, and pinky rings flashing cash at the bar), the rude service, the celebrity quotient (one Dwayne Wade sighting, one Charles Barkley sighting, one Jameer Nelson sighting), the mandatory one hour wait and $100 bar tab even though you are right on time for your table, and the price (outrageous unless you know what you are doing) all make me want to <i>despise</i> it...but I just can't. In fact, the food is consistently good (in 5-6 visits, I have never had a bad meal) and the scene is so perfectly Miami Beach that you kind of <i>have to go</i> at least once. So how do you do it? Expect to spend $$ at the bar while you wait for your table - don't give the hostesses any attitude, it only makes it worse - but go with Heineken lights rather than serious drinks, then cut everything in half when you actually order dinner. For example, one steak feeds two, no matter what they tell you. The chopped salad feeds four, no matter what they tell you. So be smart. In terms of "must-haves," go with the deviled eggs in truffle oil appetizer, the cubed blue fin tuna sashimi (comes in a martini glass), the lobster tail stuffed with crab meat and scallops (probably $150 since they give you a four pound lobster tail, but for a large group it's a huge hit...and it's like eating a bucket of KFC - so decadent, so rich, that you will love every second of it but you'll feel like showering after), and the rib eye medium rare. And don't sleep on the fried oreos for dessert. I am not kidding, trust me. Another secret? Prime Italian across the street serves everything Prime 112 does, is slightly less crowded, and has slightly less attitude. Added recommendations there: try the huge meatball and get the lobster truffle pizza for $37. It will be the most expensive pizza you ever get, but it will also be one of the best. Button-down + jeans. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.zumarestaurant.com/">Zuma</a> - Our most recent adventure, Brielle's dad's 64th birthday...I have low expectations for Asian food (aka, sushi with some cooked stuff) because in Miami you'll either get great food and no vibe, or a great vibe and lousy food. And it's especially rare to get both when eating dinner <i>downtown</i> (I can't comment on lunch) but Zuma absolutely nailed it. Roomy, round tables...loud, high ceiling room...long open kitchen...hopping bar scene...killer appetizers (the ribs were amazing...and the tempura tiger shrimp were great) and really fresh, really good (which is crazy hard to find in this town) sushi. Highly recommended if you are downtown for a Heat game or something else, but will not blow you away if you are a New Yorker who always gets great sushi. In that case, stay on the Beach...but in my case, especially for business dinners or pre-Heat, it's a find. And a welcome respite from the steak and calorie bomb that is Prime 112. Button-down + jeans.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.thebetsyhotel.com/reservations/blt-steak">BLT Steak</a> - My favorite steakhouse on South Beach...not just because of the aforementioned hook-up (which is thankfully worse an extra appetizer or two...thanks Julie!) but also because it's a more refined, adult scene and the experience is more relaxing (read: you are not "herded" into cramped spaces nor given attitude). The BLT signature popover bread is unreal, and their bone-in ribeye is just about the closest thing - for me - to heaven on earth in the meat department because of the way they manage to char the outside yet maintain medium rare on the inside. The give-up on BLT, as expected, is the scene. But sometimes less is more in my book. And after you do Prime 112 and then go out hard, BLT is perfect for the next night. Low key, relaxing and utterly enjoyable, and walk across the street to stroll down the beach pre- or post-meal. Button-down + jeans. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.redthesteakhouse.com/index.php?page=southbeach">Red The Steakhouse</a> - I was not that impressed (what differentiates it from any other steakhouse? and it's on a dead street...) but maybe I went at the wrong time (7pm on a Thursday is early in Miami) and I need to give it another shot. But honestly, the steak was good, the appetizers sucked (how do you mess up tuna tartare?) and the room/decor was...eh, ok. Given the locale and the vibe, I would have hoped that a ridiculously good steak would have compensated for it all. I heard that Michael Jordan and Charles Oakley eat here all the time, and the menu looks great, the wine list is serious, and they really seem to focus hard on good quality meats that are perfectly prepared. But I was underwhelmed. Or maybe just whelmed. Try it and tell me if I am wrong. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.mrchow.com/main.html">Mr. Chow</a> - If you are a foodie, you know all about this place...amazing food (get anything with lobster!), great service, hot chicks (if you are into that sort of thing), and legit vibe. Eat here and then go to the Wall Bar or back to the pool (both in the W Hotel), or walk down to The Delano and go to the Florida Room or Plunge at the Gansevoort. But the elephant in the room always remains: How can you justify paying this much for Chinese food??!!</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.joesstonecrab.com/">Joe's Stone Crab</a> - Ahhh, the ol' Miami standby...Joe, whoever that is, was a genius because he took something that simply tastes incredible on its own - the Stone Crab legs/knuckles/claws - slapped up four walls, called it a restaurant, and charged like 10x what stone crab actually costs. God bless Joe. Look, this place is a Miami institution, and in fairness, the hash browns are outrageously good. (It's amazing how many steakhouses can't get 'em right.) But do yourself a favor...call Joe's Takeout, order the blackened grouper sandwich (extra tartar), the hash browns, the creamed spinach, a few large crab claws (bigger is <u>not</u> better - avoid XL - no flavor at all, get medium or large) and the key lime pie and call it a day. For me, I call that a hung-over Sunday. The takeout spot is attached to the main restaurant and it's just an overall better experience. And if you really want value vis-a-vis stone crab pricing, just get them downtown along the Miami River. Try <a href="http://www.garciasseafoodgrill.com/">Garcia's</a>. (Hard to get to, but hop in the rental and googlemap it. Oh, and it helps to speak a little Spanish...after all, it's pretty authentic Miami.)</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.noburestaurants.com/miami/experience/introduction/">Nobu</a> - Asian fusion, blah blah blah. In fact, now that I think about it, Nobu 57 is essentially the NYC mirror image of Prime 112 in Miami -- it's always been the place I want to hate for it's now-cliche menu and its midtown Manhattan oh-too-cool-business crowd nonsense, but the toro tartare in wasabi broth with lychee & caviar (note to self: deathbed meal, even though it's like $50 per serving) and the rock shrimp appetizer absolutely win me over...every time. The difference in Miami though, is that the sushi is weak. (There's another blog on my Miami sushi theory somewhere on the right side of this page.) So if you are craving those two things and are ok with mediocre sushi at a crazy price, go for it. But it's not my first choice. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.meatmarketmiami.com/enter.html">Meat Market</a> - Really, really good food, great location on Lincoln Road...clean, cool, sexy space, excellent service, and great vibe/scene...but just obscenely priced. Dinner for two with a $90 bottle of wine (about the cheapest on the list) for $350? Two dudes eating steak at the bar? That's just nuts. But if you are on vacation and feel like splurging and strolling Lincoln Road (always a treat for people-watching) before or after you eat, I highly recommend it. Legit. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.ilgabbianomiami.com/">Il Gabbiano</a> - Ok, here's the back story from a reliable source. Il Mulino is a West Village New York institution, but the owners sold out years ago. At some stage, they actually sold the Il Mulino name to a North Beach/Aventura Trump Hotel. But recently, they got the urge to get back into the restaurant business and didn't want NYC anymore and obviously couldn't use the Il Mulino name anymore. So what did they do? Yup, they opened Il Gabbiano. Seriously, this place is awesome. Located downtown, so a little less laid-back vacation vibe and more "buttoned-up" than the beach. And a slightly older crowd. But so charming for its location (along the Miami River and Biscayne Bay waterfront) and for its old school male-waiters-with-white-aprons vibe, that you have to go at least once. And on top of all that, the food is simply the best of the best in terms of Italian staples: pastas, meats, fish, etc. Great wines, very romantic if you have a corner table, or great business with the guys if you want steak and pasta and Barolo at a larger table... Love it. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Slightly-off-the-path dinner:</b></div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.macalusosmiami.com/">Macaluso's</a> - Tucked away in a tiny strip mall retail corner at 18th and Alton...simply put, the best meatballs that you will ever eat. The staff can be a bit obnoxious, though, and they definitely treat the local regulars better than the rest. And while I would love to be a local regular, at $100 per person, it's a bit much... But again, if you are tired of the South Beach trendy spots, and you want to see a savvy celebrity or two who is not looking to "see and be seen" at Prime 112, you will find them here. Alternatively, get a takeout order of the meatballs with extra mascarpone cheese on the side and call me after the orgasm. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://michysmiami.com/">Michy's</a> - Simply awesome. Michelle Bernstein's centerpiece restaurant, and she's the real deal. Off the beaten path up around 78th and Biscayne - foodies only - but so worth it. You need to be the kind of person that does not need to brag about their trip to Miami to go here though. In other words, you need to be intelligent and independent. Because when you get home, and all your friends ask about Nikki Beach's brunch and Prime 112's dinner, you would need to have the stones to say, "actually, we went to Michy's" and be ok with that. Not so much a place for a bunch of dudes or business, but it's a great date spot if you have already eaten on the beach one night and are looking for something different. Pricey taxi ride from South Beach, and probably better suited for those who have been to Miami before and are looking for something a little off the beaten path, but without sacrificing any quality of the mainstream joints.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.michaelsgenuine.com/">Michael's Genuine Food</a> - Here's one that I think has jumped the shark and that I have grown to dislike a little...Pretty quickly after we moved here three years ago, we went to Michael's and felt all "West Village" in the sense that we had found a gem far from the maddening tourists of TimesSquareSouthBeach...It's on the downtown side, in the Wynnwood Design District...but then Michael's got too popular...there were celebrity sightings, and the staff developed attitude and all of a sudden it lost its luster. Like most cities, there is a crew in Miami that are "very wealthy, in their 50s and 60s, that have great taste and a slight urge to see and be seen and then talk about it" that descend on a place and make it...ummm...slightly less edgy. New Yorkers know what I mean. It's the people who "hear" about a spot and then have to go so they can check it out and tell others that they went. (And the phrase "I heard" about it really should be translated as <i>I am not remotely "in the know," I actually read it in a magazine but I am making it sound like I am in the know by telling you I "heard" about it...or a friend of mine read it in a magazine and then told me.</i> Which - in fairness - really describes <u>all of us</u> when it comes down to it. The only people who truly "hear" about a place are friends of the chef or the staff or the people who live next door and stumble in by accident the day it opens or something...but I digress.) In other words, it's eating out for sport. It's the Upper East Side couple who dresses younger than they are and get the "hot off the presses" New York Magazine and rush to the newest reviewed spot ASAP. It's a little less about enjoyment of the experience and a little more consumptive of the experience, if that makes any sense. They're the same folks that buy "trendy" clothes at Neiman Marcus in a swanky mall, which means kids on the Lower East Side have probably been wearing it for, like, three years already. You know what I mean. Anyway, my point is that those folks descended upon Michael's and got kinda cozy there. Nothing but black and silver Mercedes being valeted all night long. Meaning that it's probably still great and I would recommend someone try it out because the food has never really faltered, but that it's really not for me anymore. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Off-the-beaten-path dinner (aka, locals only)</b>:</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.giginow.com/">Gigi's</a> - Loooove this new noodle bar in midtown. Small & cheap bites, industrial, clean decor, open kitchen, Sapporo on tap. Need I say more? Ok, how's this - the BLT is made with pork belly rather than bacon. Awesome. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://joeallenrestaurant.com/Joe_Allen_welcome.html">Joe Allen</a> - A local's paradise...quiet, moderately priced, and consistent. Anchor Steam on tap, wow. Tuna tartare appetizer is a must. Basic bistro fare - couple pastas, chickens, fish, meatloaf, burger, etc. Solid all the way. A great easy dinner for us. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.sylvanos.com/">Sylvano's</a> - Ok, full disclosure...The eponymous Sylvano himself lives in our building and we love the guy, but we didn't know that the first two times we went there. Make no mistake - this is a local joint. No scene to speak of at all, and if there were no windows in the place you might not even guess that you were in the middle (8th and Alton) of South Beach. It's just a lively crowd of happy people who actually live on South Beach rather than visit. Sylvano honestly makes my favorite pizza on the beach (get the four cheese pie) and my favorite fried calamari. There are always specials, and his daily fish is usually very good. When you go, tell Sylvano (he'll be the dapper, Euro guy with the long salt and pepper hair with a crisp white shirt unbuttoned a few buttons hanging around the bar) that Ben & Brielle sent you, and hopefully he'll toss some extra limoncello or bruschetta your way. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1547402858"><br />
</a></div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.redlightmiami.com/">Red Light Little River</a> - Another major favorite...I love this place. The chef is awesome and the space is so cool...it's way off the normal path and its definitely a local crowd... these guys took over an old diner of an old 70's motel at 75th and Biscayne and put up one red light over the corner booth, cranked killer tunes, got a great beer/wine list (random eclectic beers are awesome), opened up the kitchen, and turned out tangy, tasty <a href="http://www.redlightmiami.com/default.aspx?nodeid=704">unique dishes</a> like BBQ shrimp and bacon-and-fontina grill cheese. Menu always changes based on fresh ingredients, you can also BYOB, and it's cheap. And yes, we were "in the know" on this one...a friend of Brielle's is a friend of the chef, so we were very early on it. But there's only one problem...the last few people we have sent there (it's been six months for us) told us it stunk, badly! Huhn? I dunno, but I am concerned - say it ain't so! This place even got this stellar review (<a href="http://www.miaminewtimes.com/bestof/2010/award/best-restaurant-value-2305583/">Best Value in Miami</a>) from the Miami New Times this year! So color me confused. I love this place and hope all is well...so if you go before we go back, let me know!</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/matsuri-miami">Matsuri</a> -Without hesitation, the best sushi in all of Miami. Don't take my word for it. <a href="http://www.miaminewtimes.com/bestof/2008/award/best-sushi-1006508/">Read this</a>. Anyway, it's in a strip mall somewhere in between the airport and Coral Gables (...really? 40th Street and 57th Avenue? wow...) and I had severe doubts when we pulled up...but when we walked in, I may as well have been walking into a larger version of Blue Ribbon sushi in downtown NYC, or Sushi of Gari on the Upper West Side. It was just fantastic. We really, really need to go more, but it's hard to motivate and drive 20-30 minutes. Screw it, we're going tonight...there's no excuse. (Yes, that's how good it is.) And "thank you" to whoever runs this place and ensures the freshness and quality -- finally, finally, finally...we found NYC quality sushi in the city of Miami...</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.buenavistabistro.com/BUENA_VISTA_BISTRO/BVB_Home.html">Buena Vista Bistro & Buena Vista Bistro Deli</a> - Tiny local joints with the same owner and about a block apart...love 'em. BVB is a great little French bistro that is very authentic...perfect for a bottle of rose and a solid steak frites...food is fresh and menu seems to change daily. And BVBD simply has the best Quiche Lorraine that I have ever tasted outside of France. (bacon & cheese to you heathens...and no, I am not gay because I know what Quiche Lorraine is. It has bacon in it for christ's sake.) After a tough weekend workout, when I am craving that salty breakfast food, I will detour well out of my way to get this quiche. People who know me, know that is saying a lot. Great croissants and other stuff too... And it's as local as it gets - feels like everyone who goes there lives within the neighborhood.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.mandolinmiami.com/">Mandolin</a> - Nicely fills the glaring Greek/Mediterranean/Turkish hole in Miami dining. Fresh fish with olive oil and capers...amazing breads and humus, baba ganoush, tzatziki, etc...excellent fried calamari...cool selection of Greek wines...and killer outdoor space. Such a nice spot and a great vibe. Thinking about this place relaxes me. We are huge fans of <a href="http://www.kefirestaurant.com/">Kefi</a> on the UWS in Manhattan, and Mandolin has helped us get over that loss here in Miami. When you are not into the traffic and parking on South Beach and the hustle and bustle of the terrible service and the loud tourists, park right in front of this place and then take your sweet time eating awesome Mediterranean fare in their back garden. It will instantly relax you. That, and the ouzo. Trust me, you will love it. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.themorgansrestaurant.com/">Morgan's</a> - Puts the comfort in comfort food. I mean...thick crispy bacon that is somehow infused with maple syrup?! Whaaat?! (And the bacon is always crispy...I can't tell you how much I hate chewy, fatty bacon...god bless these guys for understanding that.) The owners are friends from the gym, but it would not matter - this place just rocks. For my money, it's the best BLT and the best Meatloaf in Miami. How's this for proof -- our weekend breakfast here ends up costing like $75 for two because when I ask for the check, I also order one BLT and one meatloaf to eat later while I watch football. It's that good - I order multiple meals at once, and sometimes six hours in advance. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Going out</b>:</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.delano-hotel.com/default.aspx#/explore/?id=floridaroom">Florida Room</a> - Have not been since the pregnancy/baby thing mentioned above, but it was our spot. If you notice that the bouncer is a well-dressed, sharp, nice guy named Granville, please tell him Ben & Brielle say hello...hopefully he remembers us, and he'll probably be nice and fake it, but he really is a nice guy and it really is a cool spot. Live music, and since Lenny Kravitz designed the place, there are some major acts (like Tribe Called Quest...I am bummed I missed that night) that just show up and grab a mic. Drinks are steep, but getting a table for 5-10 people and paying $700 for the Grey Goose Magnum is actually well-worth it since the table is yours all night, the mixers keep coming, and you become a draw for some of the nearby crowd of lonely ladies. And, oh yeah...maybe the prettiest (not sexiest, not raunchiest, actually prettiest) hostess in South Beach is the girl from Tallinn, Estonia. In fact, a guy I was with once gave her something like a $1000 tip just to keep talking at her and looking at her all night. It was pretty funny. Nice girl, though - I got in trouble with my wife for yelling out "Tallinn" and making her smile when I heard her answer "Estonia" to someone else's question. But it was just my trivia Tourette's acting up. I couldn't resist. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.livnightclub.com/">LIV</a> - No idea, only heard stories, but the most popular place on the beach. Apparently. Double check though - I am not sure anymore. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.miami.com/plunge-bar">Plunge</a> - It's outside, so that's awesome...beautiful people lounging around a pool...fun bar, cool kinda outdoor-ish bathrooms...believe it or not, gets chilly up there at night sometimes though...</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://bardotmiami.com/">Bardot</a> - Been there once and felt like I was hanging in Williamsburg, NY with all the cool people. Or at least the Lower East Side. Nice long bar, live music right on top of you (no stage, they just play right there in front of you), and a group of hipster locals just hanging out. $6 Red Stripes are a plus in this town. Nothing pretentious, totally comfortable even though it was a little...artsy, I guess. Highly recommended when you finally get up the nerve to skip South Beach and head downtown. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;"><b>Mix-and-match logistics for going out</b>:</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">(Nota bene: When spending bucks at a restaurant that has a nightclub in-house (STK+Plunge, Blade/Hakkasan+LIV, Blue Door at the Delano+The Florida Room), ask the maitre d' for advice or help on how to get in to the club if it's 11pm or later. Maybe a $20 goes a long way? Getting in at 10pm or 10:30pm, on the other hand, is generally easy.) </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Dinner at Mr. Chow, drinks at the Wall Bar or the W Pool (all at 23rd and Collins), clubbing at Plunge (24th and Collins) in the Gansevoort or The Florida Room (18th and Collins) in The Delano.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Dinner at STK in the Gansevoort (24th and Collins), drinks at the main bar in the center of STK and clubbing upstairs at Plunge.</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Dinner at Blade in the Fountainbleau (or Hakkasan or Scarpetta; 44th and Collins), drinks at the lobby bar (a great scene actually, since it's so hard to get into the club), clubbing at LIV. Be prepared to beg and/or wait in line for LIV, but they payoff is that you will probably see <strike>girls</strike> models drinking champagne and making out, so there's that. </div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">Dinner at Prime Italian or Prime 112 (1st and Ocean), cab north to The Florida Room, Plunge, or - if up for a longer ride - LIV.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Best-night-out-I-have-had-in-Miami</b>:</div><div style="color: #999999;"><br />
</div><div style="color: #999999;">It was recent, and actually all on the downtown side...we experienced midtown Miami and the Wynnwood area at its finest... dinner at Joey's Pizzeria...drinks at <a href="http://www.cafeinamiami.com/">Cafeina</a>...short drive to Bardot for live music, great bar scene, red stripes...home by 1am. Perfect. It was all very laid back, good vibe, local crowd, no BS, inexpensive fun - but still hip people and very attractive girls...had more fun just relaxing than I have had at other Miami spots where everyone is "working" at being out...screw that.</div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-77721766700833033172010-08-10T17:51:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:38:33.756-04:00Early lessons from the Canisius hardwood...<b>Early lessons:</b> Basketball at my high school was - and is - a <a href="http://www.canisiushigh.org/athletics.cfm" style="color: blue;">big deal</a>. In fact, the Buffalo Catholic League - and Buffalo basketball in general - is better than you would expect. Teams are well-coached and disciplined, coaches are respected and admired, and players are blue-collar tough and surprisingly talented. <a href="http://www.buffalorising.com/cliff%20robinson.jpg" style="color: blue;">Cliff Robinson</a> came out of Buffalo. So did <a href="http://www.nba.com/media/pistons/lanier_300_080115.jpg" style="color: blue;">Bob Lanier</a>. You probably never heard of <a href="http://www.buffalosportsmuseum.com/images/randy-smith-color-image1.jpg" style="background-color: white; color: blue;">Randy Smith</a> but <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Smith_%28basketball%29" style="color: blue;">look him up</a> - he was MVP of the 1978 NBA All-Star game (over Dr. J!) and he owned the NBA ironman record for most consecutive games before AC Green broke it. (He also regularly abused me in pick-up games when I was a soph/junior and he was training for the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/07/sports/pro-basketball-legends-live-up-to-their-billing.html" style="color: blue;">'88 NBA Legends Game</a>.) <a href="http://hardhittinradio.com/img/trevorbio.gif" style="color: blue;">Trevor Ruffin</a> played for the Suns and the Sixers and once led the NBA in points per minute as a super sub (fyi...Trevor also torched me in pick-up games). <a href="http://www.ibiblio.org/craig/draft/1996_draft/scout/sf.html#Eberz" style="color: blue;">Eric Eberz</a> had a great career at Villanova (ok, there's a theme..Eric went to my rival high school and once blocked my shot into roughly the 12th row). <a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_VbrnAOJwfcA/SzQF85IjAAI/AAAAAAAAAJU/fmEUsoBaNJ8/s320/stokes_shoots_400x576.jpg" style="color: blue;">Lenny Stokes</a> played for Cincinnati. <a href="http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2009/0401_large.jpg" style="color: blue;">Jonny Flynn</a> plays for the Timberwolves. Current Michigan coach <a href="http://www.annarbor.com/assets_c/2009/11/JOHN-BEILEIN-113009-thumb-337x512-17867.jpg" style="color: blue;">John Beilein</a> is a Buffalo guy and recruited me out of high school. <a href="http://a.espncdn.com/i/magazine/new/christian_laettner_1992.jpg" style="color: blue;">Christian Laettner</a> was the top-dog in my era and his squad won the New York State championship a couple times. You get my point.<br />
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My middle school did not have a basketball team. I played local Boy's Club basketball (one season on the 11-and-under team and one season on the 13-and-under team) and I had no exposure to city basketball or to what I imagined that level of play to be. And as you might expect, I was slightly intimidated by the prospect of making my "big city" (I know, I know...you can guffaw at the concept that Buffalo could ever be "big city," but as a kid who grew up in France and in the Buffalo 'burbs, it was to me), private, all-boys, gloried-and-storied tradition, high school freshman team. <br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Canisius vs. St. Joe's at CHS</td></tr>
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So, motivated by fear and by stories that over 100 kids would be trying out for 15 spots, I did what any thirteen-year-old-boy-in-the-pre-internet-and-pre-cable-television days would do: I worked my ass off. I suppose the benefit of relative isolation in the 'burbs (and on a <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=knox+farm+east+aurora&sll=42.767838,-78.613359&sspn=0.077879,0.100422&g=east+aurora&ie=UTF8&hq=Knox+Farm&hnear=Knox+Farm,+East+Aurora,+Erie,+New+York+14052&ll=42.7714,-78.636274&spn=0.038937,0.050211&z=14" style="color: blue;">1000-acre estate</a>, no less...my mom was the cook for the owners of the Buffalo Sabres hockey team so we had a "servant's house" on the estate) was the emphasis on drills, rather than playing, that isolation allowed.<br />
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[<i>This, by the way, is a topic for another blog, but may explain some of my disillusion with modern basketball...back then we had to practice fundamentals, whether alone or on a team...today's AAU structure for kids just means games, games, and more games...do they ever actually practice anything anymore?</i>]<br />
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So I spent that summer in the driveway, doing shooting drills and dribbling drills and defensive slides and anything else I could think of. Like Jerry Rice in the prior post, I was motivated by the fear of failure, of embarrassing myself or my parents, and I wanted more than anything to just make that Freshman team. And along the way (and I say this with the obvious benefit of hindsight), I learned a valuable lesson that I carry with me to this day: self-esteem is not something you can stumble on, or uncover, or magically develop. It's something you earn for yourself. With work. Lots and lots of work.</div>
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Anyway, let's fast-forward to October/November 1985... my world was a blur. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canisius_High_School" style="color: blue;">Canisius High School</a> was demanding, both academically and culturally. The Jesuits <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magis" style="color: blue;">expected excellence</a>. It was nearly impossible to "slide by." For me, this was the opposite of public middle school, and - once acclimated - I took to it like a fish to water. Imagine being <i>respected</i> for having good grades rather than having to hide your report card from the bullies. Imagine being <i>revered</i> for being a good athlete rather than being shunned by the "cool kids" who hung out on street corners in 8th grade and raided their parents liquor cabinets. It was the best thing that could have ever happened to me, and at the absolute best time. </div>
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Basketball season, however, loomed. Would I make the Freshman team? Would I play, maybe even start? I held out hope...my goals were humble, and I had confidence in my past summer of work. I began to piece together clues as to my chances: Students at Canisius were divided into 4-5 sections that usually shared the same groups of teachers and same classes in any one semester. And for that first semester, I remember we had a pretty competitive basketball game in Phys Ed. But while I felt that I had held my own, I did not read too much into it...after all, I still wasn't sure how I measured up against the freshmen in the <i>other</i> sections.</div>
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When it came time for try-outs, though, a few kids in my section made a shocking announcement: they were not trying out for the Freshman team, but instead for the <i>Junior Varsity</i>. As a relatively quiet - and certainly naive - kid, I had no idea what to make of this. <i>Did they know something I didn't</i> about the other sections? Did they know something I didn't about the <i>sophomores</i>? And judging by the guys who made this announcement, and the absolute confidence they showed, I was intrigued. I should also mention that this was an era of the two-working-parents-who-had-more-than-enough-on-their-plates, which was in stark contrast to today's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_parent" style="color: blue;">"helicopter" parents</a>, hovering around every turn and involved in every decision. So I don't ever recall mentioning any of this to my folks, but I do remember thinking that I was just as good as those guys who were so positive about their JV chances. And in my mind, if I flopped, I'd just get downgraded back to the Frosh team and be no worse for the wear. So I decided:<i> if those guys are going out for JV, I probably should too</i>. </div>
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JV try-outs, like so many things at that age, were also a blur. Maybe there were 50 kids out for the team that first day. Maybe there were more. The JV coach was an intimidating guy who had a <a href="http://www.tvshowsondvd.com/graphics/news3/MagnumPI_S8_menu1.jpg" style="color: blue;">Magnum P.I. look</a> and an ex-athlete's swagger. In fact, Coach Dave Butler was something of a Canisius legend, having excelled in football, basketball, and baseball during his time as a student, and then earning a football scholarship to college. Now back at Canisius, he coached three sports and had a familiarity with the football guys - the guy's guys - that made me feel like <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d1/Breakfastclubhall.jpg" style="color: blue;">Anthony Michael Hall in The Breakfast Club</a>. As a result, he scared the crap out of me. He demanded discipline, he was highly organized, and he seemed to only mingle with students he already knew and who had already proven themselves as athletes. In short, I felt very much like an outsider, and my confidence was fading fast.<br />
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[<i>It's also worth pointing out at this point that our Varsity team was highly decorated and expected to compete for the Catholic League championship - and maybe more - that year. The Varsity guys walked among us like gods: Jerome Rodgers, Kevin Milligan, Mike McCarthy, Ray Flannery... these dudes were right out of the <a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vqvrCz_OYTo/Sn5a0j1_IdI/AAAAAAAAEVs/a-Qpse2Qz48/s400/Chip6" style="color: blue;">Chip Hilton books</a><span style="color: blue;"> </span>I devoured at the time. It was all incredibly intimidating, and I can't even imagine how much extra pressure having girls around would have added to the mix for me - thank god it was all-boys and I could pick my battles at that age.</i>]<br />
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But as luck would have it, either because of the sheer number of players trying out or because of his obsessive-compulsive organizational style, Coach Butler decided that the first two days of JV try-outs would be minimum playing and maximum fundamentals-testing. Imagine that. I had spent the entire summer doing basketball drills alone and now I was going to be graded - and subsequently rewarded - for that? I began to think it all might work out for me after all, and I was more than a little hopeful...</div>
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A funny thing happened, though. The testing didn't quite go as I had expected. While Coach Butler - tape measure, clipboard, and stopwatch in hand - measured our sprint pace, our defensive slides, our vertical leap, our time in dribbling end to end, or dribbling around chairs, or revolutions of a basketball passed around our waists, he shared none of the results with us. I remember little but grunts and scowls as he noted my times. This lasted for two days, Thursday and Friday, and none of us had any clue as to where we stood. We had anxiously looked to the coach for hints on our standing, or lack thereof. But for two days he continued to yuck it up with the sophomores and to treat the frosh - especially the ones he did not know, me included - like the peons that we were. I started to feel deflated and - looking around - got the same vibe from my fellow freshmen. A couple of early and obvious cuts had already been made from Thursday to Friday, but even though a few of us were still around on Friday afternoon, we were beginning to get the drift. Just like a turkey on the third Wednesday in November: after Friday's testing ended, we expected the axe to fall.<br />
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But somehow, it didn't. Try-outs, and thus final cuts, had been extended another day...and into the weekend. This presented an interesting logistical dilemma. For those of us in the suburbs (most of us, actually), coming back in for a Saturday try-out when no one was of age to drive presented a real issue. Most guys thought their parents might bring them back (if they had no prior commitments...again, this was a time when parents lives <u>did not</u> revolve around their kids), but no one felt good about it. In fact, most of the freshmen felt that it was just an oversight on Coach Butler's part that he failed to post cuts on Friday night...and that we'd all be struggling to come into the city on a Saturday for absolutely nothing.<br />
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One of my classmates, let's call him <a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Y8m29ZLX5ag/SZ-rXJgDt_I/AAAAAAAACxA/DqbGHlPL8uc/s400/SHERMAN+COLOR.jpg" style="color: blue;">Tim Bosgrove</a>, was particularly incensed. I was impressed by him, really. For a fellow freshman, he clearly had more confidence - and much bigger balls - than me. <i>Listen, guys</i>, he argued, <i>my parents are busy tomorrow. They're not gonna bring me back in here. And what for anyway? Butler hates us, he has no use for us...he's just gonna cut us regardless. </i>Tim had a point, to be sure. And he was convincing. <i>Really</i> convincing. My 13-year-old self nodded along to his argument. Hell, my 38-year-old self is <i>still</i> nodding along. After a few minutes of this, it was agreed by the group that Timmy B would speak for all of us, and to ask Coach Butler his true intentions for Saturday practice. Somehow (and I wish I could remember how <i>that</i> happened), I was nominated to tag along. </div>
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We found the coach among the seats in the auditorium, holding court with a parent or alum or two. He eyed us warily as we approached. I was quiet as Timmy B launched into his soliloquy. Coach Butler patiently watched, betraying no emotion whatsoever. Finally, Timmy got to the point: <i>...so, we were just wondering...you know...based on how things have gone...with Saturday practice and all...I mean, do you think it's worth it for us to come in? </i> Butler first arched his eyebrows, and then honed a narrow gaze toward his inquisitor, countering with the question that any teacher or coach could rely on in this situation: <i>Well, Timmy...do <u>you</u> think it's worth it? </i><br />
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Caught a bit wrong-footed now, Timmy stammered in an effort to regain his balance. <i>Well, umm. I'm really not sure, that's why I'm asking...umm...ah...it's just that it might be hard to get a ride in tomorrow and all... </i> At this, Butler nodded nonchalantly, <i>uh-huhn, </i>and then switched his focus to me. <i>So what about you?</i> he asked. I either said something incredibly articulate like <i>I dunno</i>, or just smiled weakly and shrugged. I don't remember. But I do remember Coach Butler's next comment, and it's one of those silly phrases that is indelibly seared into my brain, for reasons unknown. It just <u>affected</u> me somehow. He stood, shook his head slightly, and said with a smirk...<i>well, ya gotta do what ya gotta do</i>...and walked away. </div>
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<i>Whaaaat?!</i> It had totally backfired. He gave us no clues to work with, and we had probably pissed him off to boot. Now he would hate us whiny freshman even more than before. And he ultimately left us with some kind of <a href="http://www.wildmanwildfood.com/pages/Koan.html#The_sound_of_one_hand"><span style="color: blue;">friggin' koan</span> </a>like <i>what is the sound of one hand clapping? </i>I mean, to a young 9th grader...what the heck does <i>ya gotta do what ya gotta do</i> mean?? How - exactly - do I interpret that? Was Coach Butler saying, <i>hey, it's no big thing, if you don't want to come back, fine with me...don't come back? </i><br />
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That had to be it. He meant <i>whatever...do what you want</i>. He really didn't care. Any spark of hope that I held out for myself was extinguished in a wash of confusion and despair: I saw my chances of making the team at near zero, I had no idea how the skills testing even went, and I had only played some minimal (3-on-3) basketball to that point. It all seemed like a waste of time. </div>
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Except for those words, which continued to rattle around in my brain: <i>ya gotta do what ya gotta do</i>. And ultimately, forced to make a choice, I did just that. <br />
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Looking back, I think it was another important lesson (again, hindsight makes this easy). In thinking about it later that night, I took Coach Butler's phrase to mean: <i>make a decision, and take responsibility for your own actions</i>. I can't say exactly how it all went down, but somehow I got back the next day. And what I discovered that Saturday morning was - at least to me - nothing short of amazing. Remember, when approached the afternoon prior, the coach did not betray the smallest possibility of the slightest potential of the tiniest glimmer of my chances (or anyone else's) of making that team. The guy was a rock. But on Saturday morning, there it was posted for all to see: in black-and-white, across the board, on each and every test, <i>I had finished at the top</i>. And he probably knew that all along. </div>
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The rest is far from history...but of that season, I will say this: I don't remember if Timmy Bosgrove made it back that day, but whether he did or didn't was irrelevant - he played freshman ball...<br />
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In the end, two freshmen made that 1985-86 JV team (lefty <a href="http://i.cdn.turner.com/nba/nba/history/legends/chris-mullin/chris-mullin-shot.jpg" style="color: blue;">Chris Mullin-clone</a> Mark Popadick was the other). Apparently that had not happened in some time. And as a freshman, I started and played every game. I won every sprint in practice. I soaked up the coaching and the discipline and the opportunity to play against other city schools, both in the public and catholic leagues. I learned to enjoy when other teams sought to pressure us, because we would instead calmly and clearly make them pay for their assumptions. I won the Coaches Award for determination, hustle, team play, all of that...and I cemented friendships with the class above me that remain intact to this day. It was, in the best possible sense of the word, <i>the beginning</i>...</div>
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And yeah...I was a little angry at Coach Butler for not telling me, <i>hey kid, you <u>better</u> come back, you scored off the charts on the fundamental testing...you are making this team.</i> But - in an early indication of a theme throughout my Canisius experience - the Jesuits teachers and lay-person coaches like Dave Butler treated us like <i>men</i>...and he let me figure it out. He forced me to think about the consequences of my actions, to <i>do what I had to do</i>, and to trust myself rather than give mind to the prattling of others. What an invaluable lesson. And I haven't forgotten it, or its corollaries: do the work, be humble, try your best, take responsibility for your actions, man up, ignore the crowd, believe in yourself. <br />
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And<i> <b>that</b></i> was my introduction to high school basketball. Thank you, Coach Butler. </div>
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That's it for now, sorry for the length if you made it this far... Next up I hope to tackle that freshman-to-sophomore summer and then sophomore season....we'll call that one, <i>the jump</i>. And I don't even know where to begin with regards to Ray Calhoun's and Luther Winfield's influence on me that summer... it'll be interesting.<br />
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Stay in touch,</div>
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Ben</div>
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<br /></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-88222693260840210312010-08-10T08:26:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:38:33.756-04:00Glory Days & Self-Analysis...<b>Glory Days</b>. This morning I posted old basketball clippings from my time playing overseas to this very blog. And this past weekend I posted old basketball photos to Facebook. I readily admit that these postings represent odd behavior, especially at my age. And to be honest, they are slightly embarrassing. I read them as betraying a lingering insecurity. But - blame the power of the internet - I simply could not help it. The call of social networking and the appeal of cyber-archiving & cyber-organizing one's life...<i>must stop myself</i>...was just...<i>must hold on</i>...too difficult...<i>must fight urge</i>...to resist.<br />
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So here's the "self-analysis" part: why?<br />
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I am not a high school kid trying to bolster my case for popularity or sex appeal: I am 38 1/2 years old, I am happily married, and we have an amazing newborn daughter.<br />
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I am not one-dimensional: I have been a student, a basketball player, a stock trader, a coach, and a world traveler.<br />
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I am not fighting some self-loathing depression born of an uninspired existence: I have a good job, I stay in decent shape, and I enjoy an all-around terrific quality of life.<br />
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But if all that is true, where does this creeping insecurity come from? Why the need to reflect on old photos and organize archives from the "Glory Days?" Why does it feel like I am posting my <i>credentials</i> as some kind of evidence of a life well-spent? Am I trying to convince others, or myself? And truthfully, years later, who really cares about this nonsense and these old clippings anyway? And yet while I know no one cares, still I post, and - <i>gasp</i> - may even continue to do so...<i>but why</i>? <br />
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Is it possible to be self-aware <i>and</i> delusional at the same time?<br />
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Or is it all innocuous...maybe it's just the need to leave a trail for my daughter one day? Or is it worse...am I trying to still prove myself <i>to myself</i> in some way? To comfort myself with, <i>look what I have done</i>...<i>it's a full life</i>...so that it's <u><i>ok</i></u> to now be settling down, to be acquiescing to what some might call the <i>life of quiet desperation</i> with the house and the kids and the white picket-fence? Hmmm...<br />
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So what's my best guess as to why I post this crap? Mortality, in part. Or, more appropriately, <i>athletic mortality</i>. The end of the road, so to speak, makes me reminisce about the road actually traveled. That's certainly a big part of it, and that mortality has been creeping up over the last few years: a knee surgery in 2005, an appendectomy in 2005, a torn Achilles in 2009, marriage, family, career...<i>age</i>. After 25+ years of feeling relatively "on top of my game" with respect to my chosen sport, I am feeling - and seeing - the downward slide. I can no longer willfully determine the outcome of a basketball game on my own anymore - I can't "turn it on" and decide what is about to happen. My presence on a court now is substantially as...<i>filler</i>. And after 25+ years of being one of the best guys on the team or on the court or in the game, it's hard to overstate what that now feels like. <i>Castrated</i> is too strong a word. So is <i>crippled</i>. <i>Lacking</i> is good, but not quite. Maybe the best way to explain it is to draw a comparison that almost anyone can relate to: the aging of a beloved family pet. When you see that dog, for example, approaching 15 years old and starting to wobble and shake...and you can so clearly remember the puppy days and the jump-all-over-you and the fetch-for-hours and the <i>absolutely</i>-he's-gonna-catch-that days...isn't it just kind of...well...<i>sad</i>? Do you know the feeling that I am talking about? <i>Why Dad? Why can't he be a puppy forever? Why can't he play anymore? Why does he have to get old? </i><br />
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And the things that you remind yourself about your beloved, failing dog are the same things I tell myself now about my six-foot-slow-white-guy-body: <i>it was a good run, he was such a great friend, I couldn't ask for anything more</i>... Regardless, the sadness remains. So maybe I post against that creeping mortality. As if to look age in the eye and say, <i>yeah, you might be winning now</i>...but <i>I owned you back in the day</i>. <i>And here's proof</i>. Of course, this does not get you very far, because you quickly realize that you <i>can't </i>go back and <i>can't</i> catch up and age is winning - <u>will</u> win - and the whole thing ends up being more depressing that when you started. So let's move on to reason #2. <br />
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Maybe I post old clippings out of some deep-rooted resistance to normalcy. By bringing past accomplishments back to the light of day, whether athletic or otherwise, it's as if I am listing for myself all the things already checked off the Bucket List. And that makes it somehow easier to accept my current age and stage in life. Maybe I am saying, <i>it's ok to slow down now...you did a lot already</i>. Of course, what's annoying about that reality is that it just doesn't work that way for me. Instead, I think about how much more I <i>could </i>have, and <i>should</i> have, done. When I look back, the most frequent question that pops into my head is always a variation of the "youth is wasted on the young" theme: <i>Did I accomplish enough with the resources I had</i>? And <i>did I appreciate those resources, and those opportunities, while I had them</i>? More often than not, unfortunately, the answer is no. I am not sure why. And it spirals on itself, it really does. When I come across an old picture and think back on it, invariably I come to the point at which I desire to be <i>that</i> again. I want to look like that, play like that, and have that freedom (from material burdens, from responsibility, from expectation, from bills, from career paths, from "normalcy"). And that craving to go back - which is relatively insatiable sometimes - leads me to look at <i>more</i> photos, and reminisce <i>more</i>...and, subsequently, I probably end up posting those images in the hopes that somehow - once added to my "profile" or my "photo album" - the act of posting will make me that person, or more specifically <i>that athlete</i>, again. And, just as with argument #1, this one is also a losing proposition. Can't go back, can only move forward. No help there. How about #3...<br />
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I suppose the third possible reason to post this stuff is that underneath the <i>bitter</i> pill of "time past" and "age" lies the <i>sweet</i> ability to re-live, and perhaps re-experience and re-enjoy, past accomplishments. I think this is the one I want to build on. Please know that I am in <u>no way</u> comparing myself or any of my accomplishments to those of Jerry Rice, whom I greatly admire and consider one of the best - along with Walter Payton and Joe Montana - football players of my lifetime. But this part of his recent Hall of Fame acceptance speech - as quoted by SI's Peter King - stopped me dead in my tracks:<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><i>"I'm here to tell you that the fear of failure is the engine that has driven me throughout my entire life. It flies in the faces of all these sports psychologists who say you have to let go of your fears to be successful and that negative thoughts will diminish performance. But not wanting to disappoint my parents, and later my coaches, teammates and fans, is what pushed me to be successful ... The reason nobody caught me from behind is because I ran scared. People are always surprised how insecure I was. But I was always in search of that perfect game, and I never got it. Even if I caught 10 of 12 passes, or two or three touchdowns in the Super Bowl, I would dwell on the one pass I dropped ... <b>If I have one single regret about my career standing here today, it's that I never took the time to enjoy it.''</b> -- Jerry Rice, in his Hall of Fame speech Saturday night.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><i>I don't know about you, but I found that poignant, and I think a little sad.</i></span></div>
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I actually get that, I really do. And it sucks. As Peter King notes, it <i>is</i> sad. But in my case, maybe - just maybe - posting the old stuff is a way of reliving it, reframing it, and actually enjoying it. Maybe I was also driven by fear and failure and I never really enjoyed it all as much as I should have. And maybe posting about it is a way of going back, Marty McFly style, examining the details, and appreciating it more. Does that make any sense? </div>
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So...whether I call it insecurity, rampant nostalgia, a push against impending mortality, a means of accepting age and responsibility by reminding myself that I had once "been there" and "done that," or just a way to actually enjoy the past in a way I perhaps never enjoyed in the moment itself...well, I am ok with it all. And in the name of archives and keeping this stuff fresh before I turn 75 and senility sets in - and maybe even in the name of enjoying it all one more time - I am going to be posting a few stories from my basketball career. They won't be in order, just random memories, but what the hell. Maybe it's over indulgent, maybe it's an epitaph. But I think it will be fun. And perhaps even cathartic. (But probably not...) </div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-83457037224001232302010-07-27T11:37:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:42:15.292-04:00More Miami driving and a theory on the dumbing down of America...<b>Miami Driving.</b> It hit me this morning. The critical distinction between the commuter experience in Miami versus New York City (or any other major metropolitan city, probably) lies in the striking difference in approach - or attitude - toward the commute itself. You see, New Yorkers are <i>problem solvers</i>. (These are people who spend their free time on the subway doing crossword puzzles or sudoku...by contrast, in 2.5 years I have never seen anyone in Miami ever do a crossword puzzle. or sudoku.) New Yorkers see the commute as sport: they choose to approach it as a <i>challenge</i>...as a <i>gauntlet</i> to be run. Each and every day creates an opportunity for increased efficiency or for a better overall time. Hell, guys used to come into work bragging about a "great move" that shaved minutes, or out-elbowing someone through the turnstile to catch the train door, or discovering a new stairway that allowed for a quicker exit from Penn Station. You get the idea: New Yorkers worship at the altar of efficiency and problem-solving. In part, it helps make The City what it is. Here? There is no such approach. I see the northeastern commuter as a warrior, suiting up for battle each and every day, whereas the Miami commuter brings kitten posters to mind: <i>Hang in there</i>... or <i>It'll get better</i>. These are Garfield people, who accept their lot in life and could care less if they get to work sooner or later or even at all. The message is, <i>the commute is a drag...I don't care</i>. Where is the heart, people? Where is the attitude, the effort? How about rising to the challenge and actually - gasp! - making it better? Or, how about paying attention at all? (That would be a start.) From my perspective, this is incredibly frustrating. I seem to be the only person, day after day, who understands that you have to make it past that one light in order to catch all the others. I seem to be the only person who understands that cutting through the parking garage when it looks like I will miss the next light can save valuable minutes. I seem to be the only person who is actually not texting or talking on the phone during the morning commute. And I am certainly the only person who is actually ready to accelerate when the light turns green. Imagine that. (But hey, I also work in a building where I watch people walk the entire length of the parking garage ramp in order to take an elevator one floor down instead of simply taking the stairs...which are <i>right next</i> to where there parked. btw, stairs get no love in this day and age. I might have to do an entire future rant about people who actually take the elevator in between floors of the gym <i>while they are there working out</i>! I mean, <i>huhn</i>?). Anyway, go figure: in Miami, it is what it is...but some days, what "<i>it is</i>" is also waaay too much to handle for any sane person... (And do you know the punchline of this entire rant? How long is my commute that it could cause such vitriol? And also cause the certain knowledge that a texter will crash into me through absolutely no fault of my own and that there is no way I can even prepare for that or avoid it? Ahem...3.1 miles...which can actually take up to 30 minutes! Imagine what this blog would look like if I had a ten-mile commute.)<br />
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<b>More.</b> Since I am on a roll here, let's keep going. Here are a few other observations about Miami, its drivers, and its roadways. First (and I have never seen this in anywhere else - I just assumed all cities had a uniform infrastructure and copied one another), traffic lights in Miami are not hung <i>over</i> an intersection to give everyone the proper perspective and view of the lights. Instead, they are generally hung closest to each street approaching the intersection. That probably sounds vague, so let me say it this way: when you pull up to the white line at a Miami intersection, you can not see the traffic light unless you are in a convertible because it's <i>directly overhead</i>! The best view of the "light-change" is thus typically a car length back from the intersection, and most cars at the front either don't see the light change at all, or are too lazy to crane their necks upward to see what is above them. So in that sense, the infrastructure - the set-up of the roads - is not exactly helping the driving experience. Second, I may have a theory as to why people don't actually <i>go</i> at a green light. This has been puzzling to me. Half the time I can see what the person ahead of me is doing, and it's usually talking on the phone or reading the paper or taking a gulp of coffee instead of watching for the light. But the other half of the time, I see the brake lights release as they take their foot off the brake...and then...and then...and then...there is this 2-3 second pause before they hit the gas to accelerate. What does this mean? Is it that hard to shift your right foot off the brake and onto the gas? Does everyone in Miami have Parkinson's or something? Or can people possibly be that lazy? Hmmm, well...maybe not, actually. In trying to give Miamians the benefit of the doubt, I came up with this theory, which again stems from a structural issue: Up north, when one light turns red, there is a <i>one mississippi, two mississippi, three mississippi</i> pause before the perpendicular light turns green. (Which is presumably for smart safety reasons and adds a buffer in case someone blasts through the yellow-to-red coming the other way.) Every kid who tries to jump all the cars waiting at a light by pulling up alongside in the "right hand turn" lane knows this by the time they are 16-years-and-1-day old. But in Miami, there is no delay of any kind. When the other light goes red, yours goes green <i>immediately</i>. My theory is that people probably run - or at least "close shave" - red lights all the time in Miami...and as a result, the drivers here have built in their own <i>slight safety delay</i> when the light turns green in case some Porsche-driving d-bag late for his tee-time flies through the yellow-to-red light the other way and risks taking you out in the intersection. So ironically, <i>not going</i> at green may simply be a survival response to another terrible planning/design issue here since there is no "safety" delay at our intersections. <br />
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<b>More. </b> Here's another good one. I also have a theory that non-native speakers here may very often confuse right and left when following directions. I have never, ever seen more cars brake to turn, realize it's not their turn, and then <i>swerve across</i> traffic to attempt to make the opposite turn at the same intersection. Yes, you read all that correctly. That happens here...a lot. Look, I have seen plenty of people pause to turn (let's call it a "left" for the sake of illustration), realize it's the wrong turn, and then straighten out and drive forward and make the next left turn. We've all done that. And I assume - in part - it's because most of us know we have to turn left, but just turned left too early...maybe at 14th street instead of 15th street or whatever. But very rarely have I ever gone to turn left and realized "oh wait, that was supposed to be a right." And IF that ever happened, my logical response would probably be to make that left regardless (but as a u-turn), then make another left to get back on my "main road" for a shot at turning right this time as I re-approached the intersection. But under NO CIRCUMSTANCE would I say "oh crap, I should be going right here and not left," then break out of my left hand turn and swerve across traffic to force the right hand turn. I mean, WTF? Again, I see this once a week in Miami. And I have no idea why. <br />
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<b>Last driving observation.</b> <i>Dear Random Miami Driver: Why are turn signals so difficult for you? Is it that much of an effort? Does it require Herculean strength to flick that lever up or down in your car? Is it stuck? Or are you purposely trying to trick me... perhaps to get me to careen into the back of your car as you randomly smash on the brakes and violently turn either left or right at a whim? Or do you feel that driving is a private experience and thus your thoughts and movements are protected under the Constitution and thus not subject to public - and public safety - display? Is that it - are you just a Libertarian at heart? Please explain. Thanks, Ben.</i> Seriously...I understand that turn-signaling is lax in many places. But I also know that in places like Rome I am only going 15mph down the little cobblestone street anyway and really it's not that big a deal. But in Big American cities, on Big American roads, and with Big American cars PLEASE use the damn turn signal! Do you really want someone to plow into the back of you? Don't you think the nanosecond flick of a wrist effort is worth staving off a potential pile-up? Again, I see a near-accident from lack of turn signals at least once a week here. And once again, I just don't get it. <br />
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<b>Dumbing down of America. </b>It's easy to rant against television - among other things - as causal to the gradual "dumbing down of America." It's easy to point the finger at an electronic box that fills in all the blanks for your mind (unlike books - which require you to translate the written word into mental images <i>yourself</i>) and promotes a type of mental atrophy that was outlined in a recent <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/10/the-creativity-crisis.html">Newsweek cover story</a> on the death of creativity. But I think it goes further than that. There is one particular aspect of television - especially cable television - that stands out to me that no one seems to question. Since roughly 1985 when MTV came on the scene, HBO came into its own, and cable TV exploded, the concept of playing the same movie over and over again became the norm in cable television programming. And - this is my theory here - the mindless repetitive viewing of those movies probably causes exponential "creativity atrophy" in all our brains. (While at the same time perhaps surprising the hell out of the cable companies. Can you imagine that first HBO board meeting when the Neilsen results or whatever measuring-stick they had came back and someone said "holy crap - we never thought we'd get away with this, but people actually watched the same movie three nights in a row!") Someone please tell me - how come this goes completely unnoticed in today's world? Remember, before cable TV (and VCRs, I suppose) we all watched favorite movies annually (!!)...<i>The Wizard of Oz</i> was on every year around Halloween...<i>The Ten Commandments</i> was on at Easter time...<i>Singing in the Rain</i> was on sometime in the spring...and I am sure there are other examples. And all of a sudden cable execs must have been shocked to discover that people will watch the same movie over and over and over again. But at what cost to our brains? <i>Why do we watch things when we know exactly what is going to happen?</i> For my part, as I wrote over New Year's 2010, I have tried to implement a five-year rule for myself when it comes to watching movies. In other words, if I have seen the movie within the past five years, I cannot watch it again. (And I am as guilty of this as anyone...I can't seem to pass by <i>Hoosiers, Bull Durham, Trading Places</i>, or any <i>Rocky</i> movie without stopping for at least twenty minutes. And - as much as I hate to say it - the same thing probably applies for <i>Notting Hill, Serendipity</i>, and <i>Love Actually</i>.) But no more mindless repetition! I feel like it literally makes me dumber by the minute - it kills my brain cells...and my time is better spent on a new movie, a new book, or any other new experience. (And I think about it with my daughter now too...we <i>will </i>have at least a five-year rule in the house when she gets older.) So my broader question remains, How is the socially-accepted norm of watching the same movie over and over and over not making us all intellectually lazier (and dumber) than previous generations?<br />
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That's it for now.<br />
All the Best, BenBenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-53572647373528238192010-07-20T11:45:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:42:26.239-04:00The constant need for stimulus, courageous authors, ethnic food choices, and more LeBron...<b>The Need for 24-7 Stimulus: </b> Someone please help me with this... I sat down to an absolutely amazing dinner last night. Brielle had gotten me a bone-in rib-eye (my favorite) and she prepared it French style, marinating it in dijon mustard and coating it with herbes de provence... add an artichoke, a green salad, and perfectly cooked new potatoes, and you have one of my favorite all-time "comfort food" meals. The meat was cooked perfectly - slightly charred on the outside and medium rare on the inside - and led me to open a 2006 Chateauneuf-de-Pape to take it over the top. In short, it was heaven. (And this was a Monday night, btw...maybe we need to re-think weekends and weekend eating, because I might looove Mondays if this became the normal routine.) But here's where the needle skips and the record comes to a screeching halt. Get this: sitting by myself (Brielle was feeding the baby in the other room and I had the "ok" to get started alone) with all of this in front of me, I actually stood up and started to walk into the other room to get the recent copy of <i>The Economist</i> that I am halfway through. Thankfully, however, I caught myself. Why is this significant? It boils down to this...given the perfect meal and a quiet setting in which to enjoy it, I once again fell into the trap of "fill every waking moment of my free time with something substantial and meaningful," i.e. finish the magazine, or the paper, or answer an e-mail. So I ask myself, what is so wrong with just "enjoying the moment?" I love Rudyard Kipling's<i> If</i>...it is probably my favorite poem. But do I really need to "fill the unforgiving minute with sixty seconds worth of distance run" <i>all</i> the time? Really? When did that happen? Am I a product of my environment, wherein there is so much information overflow that I simply need to be keeping up with it all the time? Does this make my life better in any meaningful way? I don't know - maybe the article on gold that I was reading in <i>The Economist</i> is entirely useful and I really should be reading it. Or maybe - like so much in today's world - it's more white noise. In the end, you really never know, so I seek to consume as much as possible. I operate under the assumption that got me through Amherst College: "I am the dumbest guy in the room...everyone else is brilliant...I need to read more and work harder." What I <i>do</i> know, however, is that I miss being a kid...and in particular I miss being a kid in a non-internet, non-information-overload world. I miss playing outside, and then tiring out and just plopping on my back on the grass and looking up at the sky, the clouds, and the birds passing through my line of vision. How long did I do that for? Hours? Minutes? Did I fall asleep sometimes? Did I ever feel the urge to get up or fill that time with a magazine article or by clicking a link I had emailed to myself to read later on? No, I didn't...I would just lay there until I was ready to move on to the next thing...or until I regained my energy and went back to kicking the ball or shooting the jumper or whatever. But my mind was quiet. It was <i>ok</i> to do nothing... And it still should be. So I sat back down last night, dispelled all thoughts of "catching up on reading" and enjoyed the incredible meal my wife had made. The world was ok for a brief time as I savored each and every bite while simply staring at the wall, letting my mind go blank...and I vowed to try to do this much, much more often...<br />
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<b>Courageous Authors:</b> I recently read Hari Kunzru's <i>My Revolutions</i> (recommended) and found myself relying on the oft-necessary book-reading side-job: I kept a dictionary on hand as my Dad had always urged me to when I was younger (well, now it's websters.com) and found myself looking up quite a few words. Kunzru is a talented writer and I really enjoyed his novel, which is set in the U.K. and centers around a former Vietnam-era student protester (finding himself swept up into more-and-more violent forms of protest before ultimately going into hiding and taking on a new identity) who is suddenly confronted with his past after 30 years. It offered what I assume to be a very real and authentic glimpse into the world of extremism, and the shades of gray that can take one on a path from peaceful marching to terrorist bombing. But getting back to the dictionary look-ups, I found myself thinking about whether or not authors are truly courageous in their use of language, or whether perhaps they are just that much smarter than us all. Here's what I mean: there's generally a process when I learn a new word...there's a delay before I ever have the guts to use it in writing or in public. First I need to be sure what it means, then I need to probably overhear someone use it in a sentence so I know how it is actually pronounced, then I might see it in writing again, and then - finally - I might find myself needing to sound smarter than I actually am after a few beers and saying something at a dinner event somewhere like "no, no...I don't mean that in the pejorative sense." It's a lengthy process from start to finish. And that makes me wonder if people like Hari Kunzru are similar or entirely different. If he's similar to me, that means he actually mingles with people who use words like "elided" or "prurient" or "oleaginous" (to name three that I remember looking up) at parties, right? Doesn't that blow your mind? Or, maybe he's just different...and he reads dictionaries for fun and stumbles on words that suit his needs and he uses them without ever speaking them. Maybe that ability is in part what makes an author an author... Regardless, it's impressive and intellectually courageous in my opinion. Either guys like Hari Kunzru hear these words within a conversational circle of friends and they are part of his world...or he has the daring-do to use them without prior experience with them. In any event, he kept me busy with the dictionary, and it may be a while before I casually request a more <i>prurient</i> attitude from my wife...but ya never know. <br />
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<b>Ethnic Food:</b> Have you ever had this conversation?<br />
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Person A: <i>What do you feel like for dinner? I am thinking Thai food.</i><br />
Person B: <i>Nah, I had Thai for lunch. How about Indian?</i><br />
A: <i>I had Indian last night. What about Japanese?</i><br />
B: <i>No, I'm having sushi for lunch tomorrow. Maybe Italian?</i><br />
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And so on... anyway, this got me thinking about how silly that all sounds. I mean, what do you think people in China or Thailand say? <i>Nah, can't have food for dinner, I had food for lunch...??</i> It's kind of funny how entitled that all sounds, I guess. We really do live in the most affluent and entitled age in the history of the planet as we know it. (Unless, of course, the crazies at the Church of Scientology are right and there were aliens here first or something.) We probably have it better than 99.999999999% of humans who have ever been born. And as a result, we get to decry food choices for fear of...duplication and boredom. Where is it written that you can't have a type of food back-to-back? I am pretty sure something like 4-5 billion people (in other words, everyone other than the US, Canada, and Europe) do this everyday, lol. It's all comedy. <br />
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<b>LeBron:</b> It's all good, King James...I am fine with your right to pursue free agency and your choice of the Heat. But just remember that actions have consequences. And as Michael Jordan hinted at yesterday (and as Charles Barkley has outright said), you just no longer belong in the MJ-Larry-Magic-Kobe conversation. Your bar has been re-set at "Pippen." Good luck with that, but know that as a fan, I am disappointed. Meanwhile, this Heat season could go one of two ways...a 10-10 start due to "gelling together" and "getting used to each other" issues, followed by Spoelstra going the way of Stan Van Gundy in 2006 and some media panic before righting the ship...OR...the NBA and in particular the Eastern Conference just bows down to these guys and they go like 72-10 and roll through the regular season. I bet on the latter. Unfortunately today's NBA just doesn't seem to have many...ummm...well...MEN. The Jordans and the Oakleys and the Xavier McDaniels and the Akeem Olajuwons and the Alonzo Mournings and the Anthony Masons and the Rick Mahorns of the past would be saying, "ok Heat...let's see what you got...bring it." But today's NBA? Have you heard a peep from Dwight Howard and Vince Carter? Nope, and don't expect to. Or the Celtics? I mean, Dan Gilbert - despite crossing the line in his open letter to LeBron - seems to be the only person in the NBA actually possessing testicles. The NBA today is like Pedro Cerrano in Major League II. Fat and happy and not interested in hard fouls or serious rivalries. Ah, maybe I am off-base here...but I can make at least one relatively sure prediction: The 2010-2011 Miami Heat will break the all-time NBA record for <i>least</i> flagrant fouls against. No one will touch, or test, these guys...either because today's NBA player is softer than past players, or because the NBA and David Stern's WWF referees won't allow it. Either way, it's a shame. And thank goodness for football... <br />
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<b>Economics:</b> Found myself wondering the other day whether Capitalism simply moves into Socialism with age...kind of the same way young liberal thinkers become more conservative with age. Could this be why<br />
Europe is mostly socialist at this point? Because they are just older than us? Didn't - for example - European nations start out as utterly capitalist (Columbus seeking America, the Dutch East Indian Company, Francis Drake bringing back tobacco from North Carolina) and - after wars, famine, crises, aging populations, etc - ultimately went down the road of debt which led to something akin to today's "new normal" of unemployment and government spending as necessary to maintain a functioning society? If so, do all great powers morph into socialism eventually? I feel like there is simply an arc - a lifespan - to modern empires...and that there is<br />
not much that can be done about it. Thus begging the question...is the current reality of our deficit, government spending, and reliance on debt just a step along that inevitable path to socialism and - ultimately - irrelevance? Of course, if we <i>are</i> heading in this direction, there is one side benefit - our soccer team will surely improve...<br />
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That's all for now, stay in touch,<br />
BenBenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-8978259364775570652010-06-21T15:12:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:42:39.041-04:00"Parenting Advice," Defending the World Cup, Holidays & Posed Photos, and Summer TV...<div style="color: #666666;">
<b>"Parenting Advice"</b>... Here's a question... what is it about parents and parenting that causes people to constantly offer unsolicited advice? Or at least to play the "I have been there before and you have no idea what you are in for" card over and over and over? Seriously...as new parents, Brielle and I are constantly bombarded by this 24-7 message from <i>a few</i> friends, <i>some</i> family, and <i>almost all</i> strangers. Why? What is it about parenting that causes this "know it all" attitude? If anything, shouldn't the ups and downs of parenting reinforce a more humbling "the only thing I know for sure is that I don't know anything" stance? Is it that existing parents are just angry and frustrated and thus need to do the old "you'll see...you have no idea what you are in for" talk-down thing to other people to make themselves feel better? Think about it for a second...does this exist in any other form? When you got into college, did complete strangers say, "college...wow...no idea what you are in for...you'll find out..." and then offer gobs of unsolicited advice? Or, if you announced you were buying a new car, would friends say "oh, the new car experience...good luck sleeping...you have no idea what you are getting into...omg...you are not ready...it will change your life!" I mean, the drama around parenting is utterly ridiculous. Here's my take: first, what's the big deal anyway? Hmmm...let's do the math...um, there are roughly SIX BILLION other people who have been born that are alive on this planet right now. Doesn't that make childbirth and parenting about the most ordinary, least-rare thing on the planet? Second, I am not going to pretend I know more than anyone else...because I don't! Now that I am a parent, when I meet other prospective parents I will simply say, "congrats, and good luck" and maybe "here's a book that worked for me" if I am asked for advice. It's not my place to say anything more or to pretend I am an expert. It's nonsense. So please, if you meet me on the street, how about a few words of encouragement, or even some rock solid advice? Just spare me the "you have no idea what you are in for" speech. Besides, you don't even know me! So how could you possibly know what I am or what I am not ready for?? That may come off a little harsh, but you get my point. There is definitely the presumption from some people that what they are doing is so incredibly unique that they have to talk down to others about it. And that's a shame. But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater, so to speak... There <i>are</i> many friends and family members who provide solid advice and guidance without the <i>posturing</i>, and for that I am thankful.<br />
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[Incidentally...what's my favorite advice/commentary? Things like...<i> Roll with the punches. Trust your instincts. Enjoy the ride. You'll be fine. </i>And the worst? Here's an example: <br />
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<b>Parent X: </b> You have <i>no</i> idea what you are in for. Really. (Then in sing-song voice) <i>But you'll find out soon enough...</i><br />
<b>Ben:</b> Yeah, ok, you are probably right. Thanks.<br />
<b>Parent X:</b> I mean, especially as a guy...you have no clue how your life will change. It's not about you anymore! (Sing-song voice) <i>No more football and free time on Sundays... </i>(Back to normal voice, serious face) I mean, you realize everything changes, right? <br />
<b>Ben, trying to ignore this conversation is happening right now: </b> Um, yeah, I got that. Thanks.<br />
<b>Parent X:</b> (Very serious face) It's nothing you can prepare for. You. Just. Don't. Know. What's. Coming. It's a lot of work. But <i>good work</i>, ya know? You will get used to it. Eventually. But you <i>can't possibly</i> imagine what it's like. Until it happens. (Happy face) But it's amazing. (Serious face) But your free time is gone. Forget reading. And free time. And workouts. (Serious face, usually with a finger point) Are you <i>prepared</i> for all that? (Wave hand in dismissive fashion) Probably not. I'm just telling you... And the diapers and the crying and the...<br />
<b>Ben, bemused smile:</b> Uh-huhn. Yup. <br />
<b>Parent X:</b> (Serious face, furrowed brow) The rewards totally outweigh the work. But it's hard. Get used to not sleeping. And did I mention you are gonna find out that yourlifewillchangeinsomanywaysthatyoucan'tevenimagine that youarecluelessabout and totallynotreadyforatall? (Happy face) I am soooo excited for you guys! But you have<i> no</i> idea...oh my god...wait, what kind of stroller did you buy? <br />
<b>Ben, gouging out my own eyes with a salad fork at this point and cradling my head in my hands while rocking back and forth and pulling my hair out while nevertheless forcing a smile:</b> Yeah...awesome...thanks. Great seeing you. <br />
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And by the way, can I just ask the question...what does "get used to not sleeping" mean, exactly? Do I join the Navy Seals and <i>practice</i> sleep deprivation? Do I ship off to Guantanamo and get myself water-boarded? What exactly am I supposed to do with that tidbit of advice?? Does it make <i>any</i> sense? The inverse is equally funny..."get your sleep in now!" Ok, thanks...yes...I will immediately quit work and hibernate until Brielle gives birth. I will sleep for 3 straight weeks and grow a Rip Van Winkle-type beard and wake up refreshed and with a reserve of sleep and ready to parent!! Thanks for the heads-up! Yeesh...]<br />
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<b>Defending the World Cup</b>... I'm sorry, I love the World Cup. First, and foremost, how can you go back to watching our "American" sports with the constant commercials after watching an entire soccer match without? (Aside from halftime, of course.) No wonder the NBA sucks today...with TV timeouts every friggin 90 seconds, how can players ever get into a rhythm or a flow? This is little talked about, but probably true. And speaking as someone who rarely experienced a TV game as a ballplayer, I can tell you that it <i>did</i> mess with your flow versus a non-TV game the few times I was in them. Second, three cheers for soccer, a sport dominated by...gasp...<i>passing</i>. I love it. Third, the open green space, the passing angles, the chess-like movement of the players on the field...they all just relax me - something like watching fish in an aquarium. There's a peaceful, beautiful flow to the game which stands in stark contrast to America's most popular "fast food, I want it all and want it now, stop/start, quick burst" sports. Soccer is like the old saying...<i>It's not the destination, it's the journey</i>. Meanwhile, Americans are so focused on the destination ("goals...where are the goals...why don't they shoot...why not more scoring...they need more goals") that they completely miss the beauty of the journey. And shame on us for that. Yeah, there are plenty of things Europe and South American -for example - have screwed up (and it's certainly fun to poke fun at the French team and their World Cup squabbles), but soccer is one of their best gifts to the world. Just like jazz is America's original contribution to the world, and it takes an ear to appreciate it and it's maybe not as fun or exciting or as in your face as "American Idol" or MTV, it is nevertheless a thing of beauty...and so is <i>futbol</i>.<br />
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[Side Note: despite my argument <a href="http://www.theonion.com/video/soccer-officially-announces-it-is-gay,17603/">this video from The Onion</a> is pretty damn funny.]<br />
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<b>Speaking of sports</b>... I wanted to be excited by the NBA Finals... I really did. And I thought long and hard about why I was just not as into it as I was as a kid... My thinking is this: it's not only the experiential difference of being a kid versus being an adult that makes me appreciate the mid-80's NBA so much more. I think it's also the result of total media over-saturation. When I was younger, there were so few games on prime time, so few highlights, so few interviews, that key moments from then - when they happened - are absolutely seared into my brain. They were rare and special, no replay necessary. And so my brain took extra care to appreciate them. Look, it's just human nature, isn't it? I might love pizza...and when I have pizza once a month, I savor every damn bite. It's otherworldly, amazing, rare, special...all of that. But when a truckload of pizza gets delivered to my place each night...well...um...I am suddenly not so into pizza. What am I really getting at? Cable TV and the internet - in other words, 24-7 constant access and bombardment - has had the effect of rendering Kobe and KG and Boston/LA the <i>opposite</i> of special. I hear about them all day long and it turns me off. My brain can't help it. Men know this to be one of the great secrets of women... they play hard to get so you'll chase what you can't have... and we fall for it every time. The NBA and sports in general used to be "hard to get," or at least not available whenever you want it - the opposite of the girl who came on a bit strong and made herself available to you "on demand" causing you to lose all interest! There is no answer here - just an observation. But sports have diluted themselves by their constant availability. Yes, you are too easy, NBA Finals and the NFL Draft and the Superbowl and the World Series. Sorry to tell you this, but I am no longer interested...and you brought it on yourself. </div>
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<b>Call me the Grinch...But I Hate Forced Holidays & Posed Photos</b>... A few blogs ago I ranted against posed photos. The point was that the very act of herding people together to interrupt what they are doing and to force them to smile destroys the fun or the conversation they are actually having and makes them usually resent the photographer who is stealing that moment. It's artificial and unnecessary, in my opinion. Turns out that I feel the same way about "forced holidays." There are always parents, grandparents, aunts/uncles, siblings, etc. (you know the ones...) who guilt the others into attending all holiday functions at all costs... and invariably, what happens when everyone is together? Those holidays almost always prove anticlimactic, don't they? [Side note: And don't you just love the requisite toast, "I just want to say...it's so nice that we could all be together...on this day..."? In my view, if you are <i>talking</i> about being together then you are <i>not really together</i>! In the same way that if you have to ask people to stand together and smile to document the great time you are having, then you are not at that moment having a great time - you are interrupting that great time to take a damn silly photo!] Anyway, I am being overly dramatic for effect here, but my point is this...those times that we were all guilt-ed into being together and sitting around and making small talk because a relatively arbitrary measure of time (the modern calendar) tells you that day is "special"...those times are probably <i>not</i> going to prove to be - when you are lying on your deathbed looking back - the best moments of your life. Instead it's the unforced moments...the unplanned and spontaneous great days that just come together...the random snippets of life...that always seem to resonate in hindsight. Don't they? Everyone knows what I am talking about here. So why the nonsense...why the obligation and the guilt and the "forced, posed photos" of life? I will never, ever understand this...<br />
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<b>Summer television</b>... Does anyone else find it ridiculous that there is now a summer television "season?" Isn't this just another sign of our laziness and inactivity (mental and physical) as Americans? Remember when summer was all reruns that no one watched because you were either outside all day (adults and kids), traveling, working, etc, etc? Now there's a summer television season all its own? That's just crazy. Another sign of the modern-day Fall of Rome... </div>
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<b>Microwave Mysteries</b>... been meaning to mention this for a while...so there's a microwave in the kitchen at work... sometimes (most times) people open the door instead of hitting the "off" button and the time is thus not reset. So I can see the "time remaining" from someone's microwave session. The mystery...why is this number off by so much each time? I mean, yeah, if it said 5 seconds that would mean you probably heard some kind of popping sound or burning smell and pulled your stuff out 5 seconds early, indicating your initial time choice (1 minute, 2 minutes?) was not so far off. But when I see things like 3:27 left on the microwave on a regular basis, I have to ask myself "wtf?" Is the microwave chef guessing <i>that</i> poorly on the time it takes to warm up a bowl of oatmeal? (1 minute, btw) I find this to be a great mystery. How can you be 2 minutes and 48 seconds off your "warming up the food" guess? That's just nuts to me... </div>
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<b>Going back to parenting for a second</b>... I have been thinking about this a lot lately. And this is a little harsh but just might be true - I have seen it firsthand as a high school basketball coach. One of the real pandemics of our time seems to be the overly involved, constantly hovering "helicopter" parent. Why is this so common these days? Just my opinion...but...well, if your own life is completely un-fulfilling, maybe you feel that procreating justifies your existence (which it shouldn't - there is more to life than that...), and maybe you feel that the "success" of your kids becomes your subconscious pet-project and thus becomes a measure of who <i>you</i> are as a person. And maybe you turn all the resources at your disposal towards that kid and smother that kid as a weird counter-action to all the things wrong in your own life and probably do more damage to the kid than not as a result... I dunno, just a guess. But here's the thing...kids are not a friggin' project like a garden...there's no blue ribbon for "prize tomato" or anything. So, for all those prospective helicopter parents...get a dog, teach him how to do frisbee tricks. By leaving parenting to some other, more balanced, sane people, you'll be simultaneously letting coaches coach and letting teachers teach, which might be nice. Schools wouldn't be sued as much, there'd actually be a 2nd place trophy instead of the umpteenth runner-up so no one feels bad, etc. In Po Bronson's great book <i>NurtureShock</i>, he talks about the need to be honest with kids. He argues for telling your kid - when proper - "hey, you were not that great today - maybe you game/cello/acting needs more work..." Sounds like the anti-helicoptering...and wouldn't <i>that</i> be refreshing?</div>
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Weird segue, but <b>speaking of overpopulation</b>...don't you feel sometimes like the world is just smarter than us? that Mother Earth will always manage to humble us as humans and balance the scales of population and the replacement rate of population in ways we can't even imagine? Even as we manage to live longer and longer, there's just more and more to worry about...aluminum in deodorant, elevated levels of obesity, sodium consumption, the unknown effect of wireless radiation from cell phones and cell phone towers, people driving and texting, mercury levels in fish, the hoax of sunscreens and how many cause more cancer than prevent... It's just amazing. Try as we might, it seems the world will always be a step ahead of us in terms of unknown dangers to humans and what the "killers" of the future will be... And climate change might be the biggest one of all. Something tells me we're not gonna win this battle. Maybe in hindsight, 500 years from now, despite all our innovation, people of the future will know this as the Age of Icarus or the "Icarian Age." (google "Icarus" if you don't get the reference...)</div>
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<b>Some random thoughts</b>... been thinking a lot about words and word origins for some reason lately... for example, in the same way that <i>Chinese food</i> is probably called <i>food</i> in China, I wonder what the Romans called a Caesarian Section before the time of Caesar? Also, there are so many interesting Latin words used today as root words because they mean stuff like "sharp-toothed" or whatever. But my question is this...the first time a Roman saw something with a sharp-tooth, how did he know what to call it?? Also random...there must be stories of "near miss" famous phrases out there... Something like the rough draft that never was. Or the script that didn't quite make it. Don't you think there is a really bitter screenwriter out there who argued like crazy that Colonel Jessup's line should have been "You can't possibly fathom the reality of the situation"? Or a bitter dude working in a gas station who argued for "wipe on, wipe off" and thought "wax on, wax off" was stupid? Or the A-Team writer who fought against the re-write and wanted Mr.T to shout "I pity that dope!" I'd like to see that version of "where are they now" or at least an SNL skit honoring the "Almost, but not quite" Hall of Fame... Last thought...you know how they always trot out a kid on late night TV who can hit a golfball at age 2 (like Tiger) or who can sing like an opera star? I think Tiger is the rarity - invariably these "child prodigies" don't make it, so essentially the parents get their 15 minutes of fame with the kid and that's that. But do you know what would be a useful skill that would also be of lasting benefit that would be great to see on late night TV? Show me a two-year old who can empty a dishwasher! Or do laundry! Or vacuum! You can't tell me that stuff is any more difficult than teaching a kid to hit a dimpled ball a hundred yards down a fairway... Anyway, that's all for now, I am off to teach Baelyn how to wash a car, look for us on Jimmy Kimmel in 2012! </div>
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<b>All the Best, </b></div>
<b><span style="color: #666666;">Ben</span></b>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-81568146206965200352010-05-17T09:58:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.668-04:00Morning Note hiatus...<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Apologies in advance, but the Morning Note is suspended this week. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">I’m “on call” and will be in and out of the office; Brielle is literally due any second… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Hopefully back writing next week or the week after at the latest. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">All the Best, <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Ben<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-14588153413460006452010-05-14T09:15:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.657-04:00Morning Note...<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures are down ~100bps this morning as investors once again consider the broader implications of the IMF/ECB’s bailout and the implications for <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, the euro, and the European Union. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> futures are taking their cues from the EUR/USD action, which has faded to below $1.25, and from European markets, which are down roughly 2%. There are all kinds of chatter about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place> shifting away from the euro currency (including a rumor that the German government has prepared a “Plan B” return to the deutschemark as early as this weekend!) and a Spanish paper is quoting French President Sarkozy as threatening to leave the euro during talks last weekend. Further, DB chief Ackermann made cautious comments about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s ability to meet its debt obligations. As a result, the USD remains the beneficiary of a “flight-to-quality,” up 25bps against a basket of foreign currencies. Gold continues to make new highs against all currencies, at ~$1250/oz. In economic news, U.S. Advanced Retail Sales for April were double the expectation (+0.2%) to +0.4% but down from March’s revised +2.1%. In corporate news, Mastercard and Visa are lower after the Senate approved an amendment effectively lowering debit-card fees, and NVDA and JWN are lower on earnings. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due at 9:15am. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding the euro, the tug of war between the bulls and the bears has begun in earnest. Just as a weak USD helped reflate risky assets in this country, bulls would argue that a weaker EUR will help exporters on a global scale (whose “cheaper” goods will be more competitive) and will mean less debt service to pay (as the currency devalues, you automatically owe “less”). Of course the bears will argue that the EUR was an ill-fated social experiment from the beginning. As investor Louis Bacon of Moore Capital said in April (I am paraphrasing here), “investors have long seen the EUR as a proxy for the very strong deutschemark…and they are just realizing that it’s become a proxy for the drachma instead.” Further, according to Bloomberg:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Talk of a euro breakup is discussed as German-led northern Europe attempts to rectify mistakes made by the euro’s founders in the 1990s and squares off against the south over who will control the currency and the ECB, whether it will be used to prompt growth or curb inflation, and ultimately whether or not some countries “should be disbarred from the monetary union.” Former Federal Reserve Chairman Volker spoke in London yesterday and is quoted as saying, “You have the great problem of a potential disintegration of the euro . . . The essential element of discipline in economic policy and in fiscal policy that was hoped for [has] so far not been rewarded in some countries.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The interesting action will be in the determination of where the EUR ultimately settles. Will the EUR sink below its origin-levels (see trivia below)? Will it drop to parity levels with the USD? Or lower? And what are the global repercussions of such? Judging from recent action, in a unclear world, the only certainty – for the moment – seems to be gold. Regarding gold and gold alternatives, I found this tongue-in-cheek note from BNY Convergex both amusing and interesting, especially the details on precious metal weight and private plane “portability.” Somewhat reminds me of the Fall of 2008/Winter of 2009, when NPR ran a feature story on sales of firearms and safes hitting record highs worldwide:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Gold is clearly working as an investment, but perhaps not for the reasons we thought just a few months ago. The dynamics around the ongoing breakout, for example, seem to have more to do with Europe’s recent efforts to salvage the Euro than the ongoing profligacy of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> government. There was a common wisdom that gold would rise as the dollar slackened. In fact, it has been the slow motion collapse of the Euro that has catalyzed gold’s move higher. No doubt other sources of demand, from domestic <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> buyers to Chinese jewelry purchasers, have helped as well. But press reports of large scale European buying of physical gold correlate too well to the move in the past week to think any other of these more long-standing trends actually caused the breakout. Continental purchasers clearly see gold as a refuge from Euro devaluation. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">There is a unique psychology to this “refugee buying” that dovetails with <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>’s experience of a major war every century for a millennium. Suffice it to say that anyone with first or second hand knowledge of what happened in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> in between World Wars is not surprised by gold’s move higher this week. World War I left the continent in tatters and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place> was pressed into making crushing reparations to the Allies. Part of its efforts to pay those debts included printing currency at an astonishing rate, which led to hyperinflation and an economic collapse that spawned the rise of the National Socialists and Adolf Hitler as leader of the country. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Yes, to Americans that seems like ancient history, but the 1930s cast a long shadow over Europe, and especially across its largest economy, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place>. So since the EU announced its wide-ranging monetary stimulus plans to support the Euro, it is certainly understandable that Europeans have been incrementally hedging their bets with gold purchases. European countries have a strong tradition of minting gold coins and the Swiss also produce easy-to-store one ounce gold bars. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">But the question that intrigues us is, “What other asset classes may see increases in demand from the current uncertainty over the value of the Euro?” We don’t think other currencies can be long-term beneficiaries, although the dollar has certainly gotten a tailwind in the last week. Individuals and institutions with concerns over the security of sovereign debt, currency exchange rates and even global taxation policies will more likely focus on portable real assets that carry few disclosure requirements and look for safe places to custody those assets. So here are some ideas for the follow-on trade to gold:<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Silver</span></b>. Starting with the easiest call, silver is an obvious choice. It has been used in coinage for millennia so it has a similar psychological profile to gold as far as a historic store of value. <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">It is not as portable as gold – $1 million in gold weighs about 57 pounds. The same amount in silver is 3,000 pounds</span></b>, give or take. Still, if ounce-sized gold coins stay in relatively short supply, silver demand for investment purposes should stay strong as well. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Platinum</span></b>. This metal has the right profile to be a new third choice for “store of value” metals investing. It is more expensive than gold, used in jewelry, and several countries – the U.S., Canada and China to name three – make bullion coins from the metal. It does have a wide range of industrial uses (as does silver, for that matter), so demand is not primarily driven by investment-oriented buyers. That is a risk to platinum prices if global economies see a “double dip,” but <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">consider that our theoretical $1 million in cash translates into just 37 pounds of platinum. That’s pretty good portability. For the curious billionaire reading this note, your Gulfstream G5 will carry approximately $135 million of platinum (5,000 pounds), leaving space and weight for 2 copilots and 4-5 passengers. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Diamonds</span></b>. For the ultimate in capital-preserving portability, diamonds have no equal. A super premium one-carat diamond currently trades for $25,000 – check out bluenile.com if you want to see the goods first hand. <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">One pound of these gems would be worth $57 million, if you could even find that many. That one pound sack would contain over 2,000 one-carat stones</span></b>. Of course, you could go bigger, and a two-carat flawless diamond would fetch $100,000. Diamond prices have begun to tick up in recent months, but are not yet back to inflation adjusted highs from the 1970s. We would note that the diamond market has historically been tightly controlled, first quasi-officially by De Beers and more recently by Russian producer Alrosa. This state-owned firm stockpiled gems during the financial crisis as demand collapsed but has returned to the market in the first quarter of 2010. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Tax haven real estate</span></b>. With sovereign debt issuance rising in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, the next logical step will be to see taxes rise in both areas. That will make for a robust real estate market in countries like <st1:country-region w:st="on">Monaco</st1:country-region> or territories like the <st1:place w:st="on">Channel Islands</st1:place>. This is less of an issue for Americans – Uncle Sam follows you around the globe, no matter where you live, and asks for his fair share of income and capital gains. Most other countries, however, allow you to pay taxes in your country of domicile if you have legitimately set up house there. We do not have much data on the trends for real estate prices in the tax havens of the world as of yet. But suffice it to say that we suspect <st1:place w:st="on">Monte Carlo</st1:place> real estate agents are going to have a very, very good year. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WSJ reports wireless carriers are shifting to prepaid segment in order to spur growth. CITI ups PH. KBWI cuts FAF. JEFF ups POZN. JPHQ ups APC. UBSS ups CAE. CITI cuts NFLX. CSFB cuts BOH. GSCO cuts EJ, WX. SUSQ cuts MMSI. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> lower overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> down 2%. USD +25bps. Oil -1%. Gold +140bps.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MASTERCARD INC-A 210.24 -9.5 % 161141<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">NVIDIA CORP 13.75 -6.14% 537004<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CA INC 20.55 -6.08% 10900<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DILLARDS INC-A 27.25 +5.95% 18900<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GAMESTOP CORP-A 21.45 -5.42% 1643<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COVENTRY</span></span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> HEALTH 20.76 -4.51% 386<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CAPITAL ONE FINA 43.30 -3.58% 25676<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DISCOVER FINANCI 14.26 -3.58% 12346<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">STARWOOD HOTELS 49.89 -3.35% 250<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">NORDSTROM INC 40.00 -3.12% 28513<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERICAN EXPRESS 41.58 -2.87% 103196<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIFTH THIRD BANC 14.44 -2.43% 26134<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BROADCOM CORP-A 32.25 -2.36% 7354<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KING PHARMACEUT 9.05 -2.27% 813<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FREDDIE MAC 1.35 -2.17% 23900<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">METLIFE INC 42.14 -2.16% 2139<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EL PASO CORP 11.90 -2.14% 2333<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GANNETT CO 16.09 -2.13% 1800<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">APPLIED MATERIAL 12.95 -2.12% 4900<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MICRON TECH 8.95 -2.08% 42830<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">REGIONS FINANCIA 8.56 -2.06% 93383<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">YAHOO! INC 16.47 +2.04% 136013<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Today’s Trivia: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">When the EUR debuted in 1999, at what level was it priced versus the USD?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">According to yesterday’s CNBC story, 65% of MCD’s orders are made from a car, i.e. from the drive-through. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Best Quotes:</span></span></b><a href="" name="OLE_LINK5" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK6" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK7" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK8" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK9" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK10" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK11" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK12" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK13" style="color: #666666;"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;"> If there is one optimistic note to be sounded this morning about the beleaguered EUR it is that some of the nation’s in </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Europe</st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> actually do seem to be learning the truth about their precarious fiscal circumstances. Let’s applaud, then, </span><st1:country-region style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region><span style="color: #666666;"> and </span><st1:country-region style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region><span style="color: #666666;"> this morning, but let’s do so quietly for what </span><st1:country-region style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region><span style="color: #666666;"> and </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> have done does not yet deserve resounding applause. Rather, quiet, modest applause shall suffice as their parliaments, with the clear support of the Prime Ministers of both nations… the wonderfully named Jose Socrates in the case of </span><st1:country-region style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region><span style="color: #666666;"> and Mr. Zapatero, the rather far-to-the-left-of centre Prime Minister of Spain… and the leader of the opposition party in Portugal’s Parliament, Mr. Pedro Passos Coelho, all agreed to raise their VATs, to raise income taxes, to increase the taxes on corporate profits and cut the salaries of many of the nation’s political leaders. These are “baby steps” in the right directions, at least when it comes to trying to bring some balance to their fiscal circumstances, and so we applaud them quietly. What bothers us, however, is that so little was done in the name of spending cuts and so much was done far too quickly in the way of tax increases. Would that they had endorsed huge spending cuts and had “matched” those cuts with tax cuts too… even if the tax cuts were very, very small. Those would be the policies that would allow us to applaud loudly; the stamp our feet, to whistle shrilly and to beat the drum in either nation’s case. That, however, is not going to happen… at least not in </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Europe</st1:place><span style="color: #666666;">. --TGL</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-79008644316324947642010-05-13T09:10:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.668-04:00Morning Note...<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></meta><meta content="Word.Document" name="ProgId"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Generator"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Originator"></meta><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="Street" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="State" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="address" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="PlaceType" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="PlaceName" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="country-region" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures down ~30bps on a quiet morning as much of <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> is out on holiday. (But note the EUR/USD has dropped below $1.26 this morning…) As a result, the focus shifts back to the U.S. as catalyst: In economic news, import prices rose slightly versus estimates, and Initial Jobless Claims disappointed somewhat at 444k vs. the 440k estimate. The prior reading was also revised slightly higher to 448k. Continuing Claims are 4.627M vs. the 4.590M estimate. Further, much is being made of foreclosures dropping in April (-9% month/month and -2% year/year), but most experts caution that a massive backlog still remains in the pipeline (see article below). In earnings news, Cisco (CSCO; -2.5%) reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal third quarter last night, and gave in-line guidance for Q4. Whole Foods (WFMI; +7%) reported Q2 profit that doubled over a year ago, and raised forward guidance. Restaurateur Wendy’s (WEN; -3.3%) beat earnings estimates but reported lower sales growth; Jack-In-The-Box (JACK) is also lower on earnings. Further, in M&A news, SAP will pay $65/share – or roughly $6 billion – for Sybase. In other news, the NY Times is reporting that NY Atty General Cuomo is investigating eight banks over potential misleading disclosures to ratings agencies. In Europe, CDS are slightly tighter as <st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Austria</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Sweden</st1:country-region>, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Switzerland</st1:country-region></st1:place> celebrate Ascension Day. In fact, <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> may be quiet tomorrow as well if investors there take Friday off to make a four-day weekend… Note that Obama is in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">NY</st1:state></st1:place> today – where jobs will be a major focus – for his “White House to <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Main Street</st1:address></st1:street>” tour, before returning to NYC for – what else? – a fund raiser. Looking ahead, we’ll get the results of the 30-yr Treasury auction at 1pm today. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding the EUR move, I thought the dedicated FX trader commentary this morning was interesting:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EURUSD support 1.2605/10, 1.2510/50, 1.2450, 1.2330 resistance 1.2750/60, 1.2800, 1.2880, 1.2940 <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EURUSD market appears to have settled for now , and the fireworks of last week have been replaced with price action similar to that seen a lot this year ...a slow grind lower with the buying interest coming from the usual suspects and rallies limited despite improving risk sentiment. This fits with the view that the reasons behind the single currency's demise have shifted since the weekend...what was a 'credit story' has now migrated into an FX story. If this move grinds lower and continues in this way then it can be argued that 1.2800/50 should not be seen again. Currently small short, adding on mini rallies 1.2700/50, reassess above 1.2800. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Gotta love the always-entertaining morning note from the guys at Hedgeye, who remind us that the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> has to roll over 40% of U.S. Treasury debt by 2012:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">With Ben Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet printing moneys from the Keynesian heavens, we thought we'd do some minting of our own this morning and introduce Fiat Fools as our new Hedgeye nickname for politicians running European and American monetary policy. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Adam Smith be damned - there is nothing invisible about the heavy hands of these governments. When it comes to their latest storytelling of a "fat finger" causing volatility in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> stock market, take their word for it. It's a big fat middle finger from the creditors of our broken promises.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">In Latin, the word fiat means "let it be done" ... and so our modern day Roman Gods of finance will do exactly that. Let us debauch the value of our currencies and inflate our way out of this colossal mess. All the while, let us hope that our creditors and citizens alike don't notice <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Main Street</st1:address></st1:street> inflation while Wall Street gets paid to underwrite it.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Alas, we all know that hope, unfortunately, is not an investment process for anyone other than the Fiat Fools. The inconvenient truth of history reveals that debtor nations who become hostage to foreign lenders are just that - hostages. As David Walker points out in his latest book "Comeback <st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region>", "the British Empire learned this in 1956, when <st1:country-region w:st="on">Britain</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> were contesting control of the Suez Canal with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Egypt</st1:country-region></st1:place>." All US President Eisenhower needed to do was threaten to sell the British Pound.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What if the Chinese or Japanese imposed that credible threat on the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>? Up until Greenspan went global with the Fiat Fool system of <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> economic policy, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> public debt held by foreigners was less than 20%. Now it's pushing north of 50%, and that's the point. The Buck stops there - and don't think for a New York minute that America isn't setting herself up on the trolley tracks to get run right over by the same oncoming train that European pigs have.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Given the light news flow today, here’s some interesting reading from Tony Boeckh of the The Boeckh Investment Letter:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Spending and borrowing excesses of governments and the public have a long and dangerous history, suggesting a deeper malaise is affecting the nation. Moreover, there are other serious signs of long-term decline, and policy and leadership will have to be particularly adroit in steering the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> through the difficult few years ahead. It has been documented that the latter stages of a long wave decline are parochial, nasty and politically unstable. People are fed up with the system, their loss of wealth, jobs, and income. Traditional politicians are blamed. People look for quick and easy solutions and are open to simplistic solutions provided by demagogues. It is difficult to sell the austerity, sound policies and pro-growth strategies needed to transition through the long wave trough before really big crises occur. Countries in denial face the prospect of repeating <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s calamity.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The risk for the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> and other countries is that politicians will cater to populist pressures and impose spending and tax policies that are counterproductive. In the aftermath of the Great Reflation, this could mean more government programs (e.g. health care), failure to raise taxes, where appropriate, out of fear of losing office, and excessive monetary ease because the Treasury bond market cannot absorb government funding on its own.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">However, we should avoid the temptation to get too pessimistic. It is important never to underestimate the ability of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> to recover from adversity, rejuvenate itself and get its house in order. Its long-term track record is pretty good, and realistic hope should not be jettisoned too readily. The question remains however, as to whether the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> needs an economic <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Pearl</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">Harbour</st1:placetype></st1:place> before serious action is taken. Investors have seen empty promises many times before and hence should be skeptical until they see clear, positive evidence that such action is being taken. Until then, they should take the attitude “show me”.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The Investment Challenge<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The great problem for investors in today’s environment is that there is no return on short-term, safe assets yet the higher risk levels on longer‐term, higher return assets are too uncomfortable for most people. There are a number of conservative strategies that investors can employ, which are discussed at length in The Great Reflation and in our Boeckh Investment Letter (www.boeckhinvestmentletter.com), which, for lack of space, cannot be discussed here. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The centerpiece of our own strategy, and outlined in the book, is understanding liquidity flows. They are the single most important force driving investment markets both up and down. Contracting liquidity caused the crash in 2008-2009 and dramatically expanding liquidity since March 2009 has triggered one of the greatest bull markets in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> history. The next bear market will also be driven, at some point, by a contraction in liquidity flows. However, as long as the great reflation is doing its work, that day can be postponed. Chuck Prince, if he were to comment today, would probably point out that the music is playing again. People are back out on the dance floor. But, if the great reflation is as artificial as we believe, then this is still musical chairs. When the music stops, there won’t be a chair for everyone, just like the last time.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WSJ reports VZ is in talks with rural carriers to more quickly expand 4G network. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">BERN</st1:city></st1:place> cuts DVN. RAJA ups S. MS upped at FBRC. HAL upgrade at FBRC. SLB upgrade at MACQ. MYGN upped at Auriga. <st1:place w:st="on">EMS</st1:place> upped at CSFB. AHL/VR/PRE upped at DBAB. TEVA cut at OPCO. KBH/MDC/TOL/COF cut at MACQ. JACK cut at CSFB. CRIC strategic alliance with BIDU. URS higher on earnings. WRC announces 5M share repurchase. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PROLOGIS 13.50 +8.78% 6823<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WHOLE FOODS MKT 42.76 +6.24% 130168<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EBAY INC 23.37 +3.82% 82806<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CISCO SYSTEMS 25.80 -3.52% 5651006<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WENDY'S/ARBY'S-A 4.93 -3.14% 58743<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SPRINT NEXTEL CO 4.28 +3.13% 1686434<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HALLIBURTON CO 29.92 +2.85% 296026<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ALTERA CORP 24.15 -2.42% 18590<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">US STEEL CORP 56.22 +2.16% 166059<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DEVON ENERGY CO 68.13 -2.07% 7650<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Today’s Trivia: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What percent of McDonald’s orders are made from a car?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The Seven Summits are Kilimanjaro (Africa), Vinson Massif (Antarctica), Kosciuszko OR Carstensz (<st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region>), Everest (Asia), Elbrus (Europe), <st1:placetype w:st="on">Mt.</st1:placetype> <st1:placename w:st="on">McKinley</st1:placename> (N. America), and Aconcagua (<st1:place w:st="on">S. America</st1:place>). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Best Quotes:</span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> Home Seizures Reach Record in Sign Recovery Is Delayed 2010-05-13 04:00:00.5 GMT By Dan Levy<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 13 (Bloomberg) -- <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> home repossessions rose to a record level in April while foreclosure filings dropped in a sign mortgage lenders are working off a backlog of seized properties, according to RealtyTrac Inc. data. “Right now it appears that the banks are focusing on processing the loans already in foreclosure, and slowing down the initiation of new foreclosure proceedings as a way of managing inventory levels,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s executive vice president, said in an e-mail. “We’ll probably see this trend continue for a while.” A record 92,432 bank repossessions were reported in April, up 45 percent from a year earlier and 1 percent from March, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac said today in a statement. Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices, were 333,837. One out of every 387 <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> households got a filing. Unemployment of 9.9 percent and a rising percentage of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> homes worth less than the mortgages on them are combining to thwart a housing recovery, according to RealtyTrac. About 5 million delinquent loans will probably end up in the foreclosure process in addition to the 1.2 million homes already taken back by lenders, Sharga said.Foreclosure filings fell 2 percent from a year earlier, the first decline since the company began issuing annual reports in January 2006. Defaults may not peak until 2011 depending on how lenders process them, Sharga said. “The underlying conditions -- mostly unemployment and millions of ‘underwater’ loans -- haven’t improved,” he said.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> ‘Very High Level’<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Monthly foreclosure filings will remain “at a very high level that will not drop off in the near future,” James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. April marked the 14th straight month that foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000. More than a fifth of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> mortgage holders owed more than their homes were worth in the first quarter, according to Zillow.com. The proportion rose to 23 percent from 21 percent in the previous quarter, the Seattle-based property service said this month. Home prices may fall as much as 5 percent through the first quarter of 2011, according to forecasts from IHS Global Insight of Lexington, Massachusetts. Still, economist Patrick Newport said foreclosures may not get much worse. “The key thing is fewer problem loans are going into the pipeline,” he said.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Defaults Drop<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Default notices went to 103,762 properties, down 27 percent from April 2009 -- the peak month with 142,000 -- and down 12 percent from March, RealtyTrac said. The numbers show fewer properties entering the foreclosure process as those that fell into delinquency earlier in the housing crisis finished the legal cycle. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Nevada</st1:state></st1:place> had the highest foreclosure rate for the 40th straight month. One in every 69 households got a notice, more than five times the national average. Bank seizures rose 57 percent from a year earlier and filings were little changed, RealtyTrac said. <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state> had the second-highest rate, at one in 169 households, or more than twice the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> average. Filings fell 1 percent from a year earlier. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Florida</st1:state></st1:place> ranked third, with one in 182 households. Filings there dropped 25 percent. <st1:state w:st="on">California</st1:state> had the fourth-highest rate, at one in 192 households, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Utah</st1:state></st1:place> was fifth at one in 221, RealtyTrac said. <st1:state w:st="on">Idaho</st1:state>, <st1:state w:st="on">Michigan</st1:state>, <st1:state w:st="on">Illinois</st1:state>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Georgia</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Colorado</st1:state></st1:place> also ranked among the 10 highest rates.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Five States<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">Five states accounted for more than half the total filings in the </span><st1:country-region style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region><span style="color: #666666;">, led by </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">California</st1:state></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;">’s 69,725. That was down 28 percent from a year earlier and 25 percent from March. </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Florida</st1:state></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> ranked second with 48,384 filings, down 25 percent from April 2009 and 18 percent from March. </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Michigan</st1:state></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> was third at 19,173, a 77 percent increase from a year earlier. </span><st1:state style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Illinois</st1:state><span style="color: #666666;"> had 18,870 filings and </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Nevada</st1:state></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> had 16,217. </span><st1:state style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state><span style="color: #666666;">, </span><st1:country-region style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Georgia</st1:country-region><span style="color: #666666;">, </span><st1:state style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Texas</st1:state><span style="color: #666666;">, </span><st1:state style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Ohio</st1:state><span style="color: #666666;"> and </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Virginia</st1:state></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> rounded out the top 10, RealtyTrac said. The company sells default data collected from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> population.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-54004968093217848662010-05-12T09:14:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.664-04:00Morning Note...<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></meta><meta content="Word.Document" name="ProgId"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Generator"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Originator"></meta><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="PlaceType" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="PlaceName" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="country-region" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures up ~60bps this morning as markets react to word of a new coalition government in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place>, positive economic data in Europe & Germany, Spanish austerity promises, and a successful Portuguese bond sale. In <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, Q1 Eurozone GDP was better-than-expected, at +0.2% vs. +0.1%. Additionally, German Q1 GDP was +0.2% vs. the flat expectation. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s Q1 GDP also fell 0.8%, which was better than analysts expectations. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region> announced budget cuts and austerity measures in an attempt to stave off the potential to go the way of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>. (And of course, the head of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s unions was <i>outraged</i>…honestly, haven’t unions outlived their usefulness at this point? In an era of abuse and Child Labor, they surely made sense…but now? Can someone make a solid argument for the value-add of unions in this day and age?) In the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place>, the March Trade Balance was in-line with expectations, at -$40.4 billion. Disney is trading lower pre-marker despite beating earnings estimates by 2c. Macy’s is also trading slightly lower despite posting a strong quarter. Electronic Arts is trading lower on its earnings release as well. In other news, Morgan Stanley is trading ~5% lower premarket as the WSJ reports that U.S. prosecutors have begun to did into that banks CDO sales and whether – a la Goldman Sachs – they misled clients as well. Blackstone, TH Lee, and TPG Capital are also on the tape with a $15 billion bid for FIS, which would equate to roughly $32/share. Looking ahead, note that Cisco reports earnings tonight – that report, along with CEO John Chamber’s commentary, will be closely watched by the Street. Also keep an eye on Gold as it continues to set new record highs…<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Excellent trader commentary from RBC this morning…summarizes the broad tone nicely:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Both Asia and <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> are mixed with no discernable trend; similar situation with the Euro as it's essentially flat at 1.267. The headline news centers around the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place>, and relief over a smooth transition within their government.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">For a day when everyone was wondering if the market would/wouldn't confirm Monday's big move up, yesterday was a bizarre day. The market opened lower, rallied all day only to give it all back and close flat. Volume was pathetic; 2nd lightest day on the NYSE in the last 11, with global <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> volumes being the lightest in the last 20 sessions. So yesterday told us nothing.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Gold made a new high as more and more begin to view it as a currency. The problem is people are unsure what new highs in gold mean. If it's a new investible asset class, then new highs are likely a good sign for the market. In de-risking atmosphere, we've often seen gold knocked down with other risk assets. Yet when things hit the fan in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> recently, many are buying it as a new form of currency. So the goldilocks scenario likely continues- it's a hedge in bad times, and asset class in good times.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Otherwise today's quiet as earnings begin to trail off. No major economic releases are scheduled, but our <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">London</st1:city></st1:place> desk points out watching a Portuguese bond auction later today as a barometer for investor demand. Portugal is in the process of a reverse auction for a bond maturing in 8 days and is aiming to raise between EUR300M and EUR1B, so worth watching as a metric for risk appetite.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Given the relative lull in macro-news today, commentary from the usual suspects is making the rounds. As expected, investor Jim Rogers is bearish on the whole Eurozone and the EUR currency:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers said <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>’s bailout of indebted nations to overcome the sovereign-debt crisis is just “another nail in the coffin” for the euro as higher spending increases the region’s debt. The 16-nation currency weakened for a second day against the dollar after rallying as much as 2.7 percent on May 10, when the governments of the 16 euro nations agreed to make loans of as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion) available to countries under attack from speculators and the European Central Bank pledged to intervene in government securities markets. “I was stunned,” Rogers, chairman of <st1:city w:st="on">Rogers</st1:city> Holdings, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Singapore</st1:country-region></st1:place>. “This means that they’ve given up on the euro, they don’t particularly care if they have a sound currency, you have all these countries spending money they don’t have and it’s now going to continue.” All paper currencies are being “debased,” with the euro currency union at risk of being “dissolved,” Rogers said, adding that he continues to own the dollar, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the euro. “It’s a political currency and nobody is minding the economics behind the necessities to have a strong currency,” <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Rogers</st1:city></st1:place> said. “I’m afraid it’s going to dissolve. They’re throwing more money at the problem and it’s going to make things worse down the road.” Investors should instead buy precious metals including gold or currencies of countries that have large natural resources, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Rogers</st1:city></st1:place> said. Among other asset classes, he favors agricultural commodities as the best bet for the next decade as well as silver because prices haven’t rallied.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Not to be outdone, Nouriel Roubini is also making news today:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 12 (Bloomberg) -- <st1:placename w:st="on">New York</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype> professor Nouriel Roubini said <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> and other “laggards” in the euro area may be forced to abandon the common currency in the next few years to spur their economies. A “real depreciation” in the euro is needed to restore competitiveness in nations including <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Italy</st1:country-region></st1:place>, he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. The euro will remain the currency for a smaller number of countries that have “stronger fiscal and economic fundamentals,” Roubini said. The European Union and International Monetary Fund last week approved a 110 billion-euro ($139 billion) lifeline for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> to arrest the country’s fiscal crisis and stop the turmoil from spreading. Europe’s debt woes may push it into a “double-dip” recession, growth in advanced nations will be “anemic” and <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>’s overheating economy risks a slowdown, Roubini said, adding that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> may still eventually need to restructure its debt. “The challenge of reducing a budget deficit from 13 percent to 3 percent in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> looks to me like mission impossible,” Roubini said. “I would not even rule out in the next few years one or more of these laggards of the euro zone might be forced to exit the monetary union.” The fiscal changes <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> needs to undertake as part of an international bailout will be an “ugly” process that will only get worse, Roubini said. Public opposition to the plan sparked riots in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Athens</st1:city></st1:place> last week that led to three deaths. “They are not going to be able to raise taxes and cut spending that much,” he said. “As you raise taxes and cut spending in the short run, output is going to fall even more. The IMF expects another two to three years of recession in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>. How much austerity and recession can a country take?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding sovereign debt and deficits, Byron Wein summarized <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> debt-servicing concerns nicely in his May note:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The budget deficit in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place> is about 12% of gross domestic product (GDP) and the Federal debt is 84%. In the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place> the deficit is 13% and the total debt is 71%. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> has a budget deficit of 13% and the total debt is 113%. The numbers are not that different. The difference is that both the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> and the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> can currently finance their deficits at attractive interest rates and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> cannot. The big question is whether the financing difficulties will converge if little or nothing is done about the deficits in <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> or <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region></st1:place>. For some time I have been wrestling with the deficit problem, having seen the Federal debt rise for most of my lifetime. I have never bought into the argument that our grandchildren will have to pay the debt back because I am somebody’s grandchild and I haven’t paid a penny of the World War II debt back that was incurred when I was young. What I am worried about is servicing the debt. The <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place> is expected to run a budget deficit of $1.6 trillion this year and the deficit is unlikely to drop below $1 trillion anytime in the next several years. Debt service on the national debt will be about $250 billion this year or less than 2% of gross domestic product of $15 trillion. If interest rates rise and we keep running trillion dollar deficits, the debt service might be as much as $750 billion on a $20 trillion economy or almost 4% by the end of the decade. A condition where the debt service is growing faster than the economy is threatening because it puts the country in an economic spiral where it is always having to raise taxes or cut spending just to service its financial obligations.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BCAP upgrades Canadian banks. AONE -6% on earnings. HMY higher on earnings. ING higher on earnings. SPWRA misses by 3c. CSFB ups RT. DBAB ups STZ. FBRC ups CCIX. GSCO ups MCK. JEFF ups BPZ. JPHQ ups NLC. MSCO ups <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">ICA</st1:city></st1:place>. BARD ups CRL. OPCO cuts APC. UBSS cuts ATMI. WEFA cuts DCAI. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> mixed overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> trading over 1% higher. USD +17bps. Oil -27bps. Gold +130bps. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIDELITY NATIONA 30.40 +5.34% 309021<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ELECTRONIC ARTS 17.85 -5.05% 159253<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MARSHALL &ILSLEY 9.39 +4.45% 46198<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MORGAN STANLEY 27.14 -4.37% 1080689<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HUNTINGTON</span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> BANC 6.73 +3.86% 239845<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WALT DISNEY CO 34.60 -3.24% 274531<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MGIC INVT CORP 9.65 +2.99% 8591<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GANNETT CO 17.08 +2.95% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TEXTRON INC 23.29 +2.87% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EBAY INC 23.01 +2.81% 25392<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PRAXAIR INC 82.59 +2.74% 885<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KEYCORP 8.79 +2.45% 12965<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AETNA</span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> INC 28.89 -2.43% 5000<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MCKESSON CORP 67.52 +2.15% 2835<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIRSTENERGY CORP 36.62 +2.09% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Today’s Trivia: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Apparently a 13-yr-old kid is currently climbing <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">Mt.</st1:placetype> <st1:placename w:st="on">Everest</st1:placename></st1:place> in an attempt to become the youngest person to achieve the “Seven Summits” challenge – climbing the highest mountains on the seven continents. Can anyone name the summits? <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 11<sup>th</sup>, 1820 marked the launch of Charles Darwin’s trip aboard the <i>HMS Beagle</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Best Quotes:</span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Late Sunday night, the EU leadership pulled out all of the stops in combating the sovereign debt crisis that has taken hold in <st1:place w:st="on">Southern Europe</st1:place>. There are three important ways to view the announced plan. First, as we stated in a morning note yesterday, the FOMC’s announcement to resurrect the crisis Dollar liquidity Central Bank swap lines is akin to another round of easing in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place>. In the current context of the announcement, the FOMC did not say these actions would be sterilized. The move will lead to a further expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the size and amount will be dependent upon how strong the global demand for Dollars remains. In December 2008, the peak level of the Fed’s Central Bank swaps outstanding was $583 Billion. Today, Richmond Fed President and FOMC non-voter Jeffrey Lacker said the Fed should consider sterilizing the swaps. This was undoubtedly a move by the Federal Reserve to attempt to short circuit the transition from a European sovereign debt crisis into a global banking crisis. As is well known, U.S. Banking exposure to <st1:place w:st="on">Southern Europe</st1:place> is relatively small. The key risk <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> banks face is counterparty exposures to large Northern European banks. These swap lines insert the two respective central banks into the equation as counterparties to their respective local financial institutions for currency transactions. This was a smart and appropriate action by the Fed to help insulate <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> institutions as much as possible in a global economy. As we noted, the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet is equivalent to getting a shot of adrenaline when your neighbor is sick. It may not be necessary, but it is to be expected as the Fed seeks to mitigate the downside related to exogenous events. As <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> markets calm, and if the economic recovery remains on pace, this does open the door for the FOMC to start asset sales sooner than anticipated simply just to offset the swap lines. That being said, the key imperative to remember about this Fed and Chairman Bernanke is that at all costs, they do not want to relive the Fall of 2008 again. Therefore, if further actions need to be taken to insulate the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> financial system, they will take them. If sterilization or asset sales need to wait, then they will wait (probably longer than necessary). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The second key aspect is the EU-IMF €750 Billion European financial stabilization mechanism. Approximately one third of the funding for the $1 Trillion war chest is coming from the IMF. The €500 Billion coming from the EU members is a maneuver straight out of the Bernanke-Geithner playbook. The EU will supply €60 Billion and in essence, those funds will be levered through Special Purpose Entities to create another €440 Billion. The original architecture for the TALF here in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place> was $20 Billion of TARP funds being transferred from Treasury to the New York Fed, which then levered that amount into $200 Billion of buying power. At the heart of the crisis in March 2009, the Fed and Treasury jointly announced they were ready to take the program up to $1 Trillion if necessary, In retrospect, we know it was not necessary. Now that we know where the architecture for the plan came from, the question is whether it makes it any easier for <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> to implement? No, it does not. Here in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place>, Bernanke and Geithner took immense personal risk in adopting such a plan. Had it failed, the repercussions would have been devastating. Over the past 18 months, both men have been ridiculed by Congress, yet their strategy for handling the crisis has been nothing short of an astounding success. Imagine their treatment if the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> continued to sink into the abyss. It bears repeating - the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> is one nation, one common cause and TARP and the related interventions were tough to pull off. In <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, there are different sovereign entities, with different economies and tax structures making it that much more challenging to succeed. What is clear is that the EU has taken a combination of the “whatever it takes” and “failure is not an option” attitude, which means anything and everything is on the table should this package stumble. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The third and most interesting aspect of the EU announcements was that which came from the ECB. The first line of the first bullet read, “To conduct interventions in the Euro area public and private debt securities markets (Securities Markets Programme) to ensure depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional. The objective of this programme is to address the malfunctioning of securities markets and restore an appropriate monetary policy transmission mechanism.” The ECB has chosen to combat speculation with speculation. The outrage among European politicians against speculators is equivalent to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> politicians against bankers. This violates the long standing taboo of targeted Government intervention in private markets. The traditional risk is that consistent policies of intervention in market prices undermines market confidence out of the fear the Government is manipulating price levels for political purposes. The argument that ECB and European politicians will make is that until this week, the market pricing mechanism for Greek bonds has not been working. In the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place>, we have witnessed a large scale government intervention in the credit markets but the difference is programs were announced, well telegraphed and transactions were disclosed in real time. The ECB’s response is very different in that they are planning a crisis response to defend different sovereign debts as they come under siege from market forces. Without debating the ideology of whether this response from the ECB is right or wrong, one must consider the potential consequences. Do investors shy from European sovereign debts out of fear of manipulated pricing or do speculators keep their respective wagers on only the weakest of the weak? We suspect the most manipulated pricing will occur in the weakest of the weak, and in that case, speculators should be enthused about the opportunity to sell at artificially high prices. The benefit of the European governments is that speculators will likely avoid the marginal bets against sovereign debt. We have advocated throughout that while this crisis is legitimate, it is not on the level of the global crisis a year ago. We have also noted our opinion that there is some speculative flare to the situation and the real crisis is the one of confidence that has been created (and still remains) in the Euro currency itself. As such, without condoning the ECB’s approach, this targeted strategy may have a higher likelihood of success at a lower price than the implementation of the Trillion dollar war chest. In the meantime, the mess and the uncertainty in the EU prevail. As a result, the S&P 500 looks relatively better and better every day.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">Mike O’Rourke, BTIG</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-10445031995862137202010-05-11T09:07:00.003-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.656-04:00Morning Note...<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></meta><meta content="Word.Document" name="ProgId"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Generator"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Originator"></meta><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="State" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="country-region" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures down ~1.2% this morning as markets pause to consider whether yesterday’s “euro-phoria” was truly justified and whether we may see more tightening out of global demand-driver China given their strong economic data last night. Regarding EuroTARP, a rift appeared yesterday as <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s Weber warned of the risks surrounding the bailout. Also see the <i>Wall Street Journal</i>’s headline <i>Stocks Surge on $955 Billion Plan, but Economists Question Long-Term Burden</i> and John Mauldin’s comments below…he notes that <i>you cannot solve a debt problem with more debt</i>, and that probably says it all. There are also renewed rumblings of Spanish and Portuguese debt downgrades. Moreover, has anyone noted the FNM/FRE need for more funds amidst all the macro-news? After already accepting <b>$145 billion</b> between them, now Fannie Mae needs another $8 billion?? Keep an eye on Gold (+1.8%), which appears to be making new highs in all currencies today. In other news, BP, RIG, and HAL will testify before Congress today on the Gulf oil spill. Here’s a good volume update from BTIG: “With some 1.8 billion shares exchanging hands on the NYSE this session, trading volume surpassed its 200-day moving average for the fifth time in a row.” Regarding <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>, here are some red-hot numbers as summarized by Hedgeye (and note that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place> is now down 19% for 2010):<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Here is a summary of the most important (inflationary) Chinese economic data released in the last 48 hours that took the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Shanghai</st1:city></st1:place> Composite down another -1.9% overnight to -19.2% for 2010 YTD:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">1. Chinese imports spiked to +49.7% year-over-year growth<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">2. Chinese loan growth up +51% sequentially (m/m) in April to 774B Yuan (versus 511B Yuan in March)<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">3. Chinese property prices (70 cities) +12.8% year-over-year representing the largest jump since 2005<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">4. Chinese inflation (CPI and PPI) up again sequentially to +2.8% and +6.8% y/y, respectively<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">5. Chinese Industrial Production (April) +17.9% versus +18.1% y/y in March<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">6. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s Money Supply (M2) for April slowed month-over-month by 100bps, but is still up +21.5% y/y!<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding Europe, it’s always a good idea to peruse The Gartman Letter, which previewed today’s “caution” from the markets in yesterday’s note and wrote on the “loss of ECB independence” apparently echoed in the Financial Times this morning:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The most important decision was that mandating that the ECB accept a mandate to buy European debt directly from the governments in question. The ECB has said time and time and time again that it would never monetize anyone’s debt obligations, but that is precisely what it has agreed to do. We note that it was only last weekend… only last weekend… a mere eight or nine days ago!!!... that Mr. Trichet said emphatically that the ECB’s authorities had “absolutely no intention” of buying government debt. However, when the bank agreed to accept any and all Greek debt as collateral for future borrowing by the Greek government from the Bank the die was cast. <b>This decision tells us unequivocally that the independence of the ECB has been utterly and completely compromised and that the political will of <st1:city w:st="on">Brussels</st1:city> has trumped the economic will of <st1:place w:st="on">Frankfurt</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></b></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yes, the Bank has said that it will “sterilize” the long term effects of this monetisation policy and in so doing modify somewhat the long term inflationary impact of the decision. However, the plain and very simple truth is that the ECB’s supposed “independence” has now been shown to be nothing more than a sham… a chimera… a willow-the-wisp, and in the end the ECB and the EUR will be punished for this decision to stand down from what had previously been considered sacred. In the end, gold will triumph for this decision is a very plain and very simple abrogation of all that the Bank has stood for previously. But the “end” might well be some while into the future and the need for a “bounce” trumps all other concerns at the moment.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Usually level-headed John Mauldin also vented a bit regarding the ECB decision in his note last night:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Was it only last week I was expressing outrage that US taxpayers would have to pick up the check for Greek profligacy in the form of IMF guarantees? This morning we wake to up the sound of $250 BILLION in IMF guarantees for a European rescue fund, most of which will go to countries that are eventually (in my opinion) going to default. That is $50 billion in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> taxpayer guarantees. Not sure what that translates into for <st1:country-region w:st="on">Britain</st1:country-region> or <st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region> or <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">I can swallow the Fed dollar swaps to the ECB. Don't really like it, but I can deal with it, as I don't think it will ultimately put US tax-payers at risk, as long as the swaps are in dollar terms. But the IMF bailout is just wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Interestingly, the euro shot up on the announcement in what was now clearly short covering. As I write this, it is almost back down to where it started. That seems to me to be a vote of "I don't believe you." We will see. But if the ECB actually goes ahead and floods the market with liquidity, that will be very good for all types of risk assets.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Note that in last Friday's letter I quoted Trichet where he said we would not do what he agreed to do over the weekend. What a turn-about. So much for ECB independence. The European leadership must have realized the wheels were coming off and brought out the nuclear option in order to stave off a very serious crisis. In my opinion, this buys time but does not solve the problem.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The eurozone leaders assume that this is a liquidity problem. It is not. It is a solvency and balance sheet problem. <b>You do not solve a debt problem with more debt.</b> This only shoves the football a few yards (or maybe I should say meters) down the field. And it is going to cause a MASSIVE misallocation of capital once again which will create more imbalances that will have to be dealt with. Ugh.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Getting back to fundamental economics (easy to forget amidst all the European news/headlines), I thought Dennis Gartman was also spot-on in his review of last Friday’s jobs number, quoting the work of David Rosenberg at Gluskin Scheff:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Finally, regarding the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> and Canadian employment data released Friday, we, like former Sec’y of State Warren Christopher, shall “urge caution.” The data at first blush was strong, and was especially so in the latter’s case. No one anywhere does a better job of tearing apart the employment data than does our old friend, Mr. David Rosenberg, the Chief Economist of Gluskin Scheff in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Toronto</st1:city></st1:place>. Yes, non-farm payrolls rose in both instanced, with the Canadian data rising far more positively than did that of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>… which itself went beyond the most bullish numbers on Wall Street. We needn’t get into too many details here this morning, but David notes that the broad U6 measure of unemployment, rose to a stunning 17.1% in April, up from 16.9% previously, and although this is not a new high, it is important to understand that U6, until this cycle, had never been above 12% in the post-World War II era. Too, David notes that the “median duration of unemployment rose to 21.6 weeks from 20.0 in March… more than 50% higher than a year ago… [and a] new all time high.” To put this in perspective, in previous recessions, the median duration of unemployment peaked at 7%, 10%, 12%,10% and 11% respectively (rounded to the nearest whole number). 21.6% trumps them all… plus some! Worse still the average, as opposed to the median, duration of unemployment is now nearly 33%, with the previous record being 20% seen in the aftermath of the twin recessions in the early 80’s. This knowledge helps us to be somewhat “under-whelmed” then by the headline non-farm payrolls which came in higher than expected, but which got lost amidst the panic of late last week.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MBIA down 12% on earnings. BofAMLCO ups LM. DBAB ups PCS. BARD ups CAKE. CSFB cuts TSN. UBSS cuts DF. WEFA cuts SXE. MFB beats by 11c. PCLN -10% on earnings. ADY misses by 6c. BEE announces 40M share offering. Cramer bullish on CRUS. GFI announces new gold discovery in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Peru</st1:country-region></st1:place>. JASO beats by 6c. JAZZ announces 7M share offering. BTIG initiates VIA/B and DIS with Buy. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> lower overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> -2% across the board. The EUR is holding $1.27. USD +50bps. Gold +180bps. Oil -140bps. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MBIA INC 8.15 -12.65% 233748<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">J.C. PENNEY CO 28.36 -4.25% 2950<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MGIC INVT CORP 9.20 -4.07% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TYSON FOODS-A 17.50 -4.06% 7985<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CME GROUP INC 320.00 -3.9 % 344<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LEGG MASON INC 31.10 +3.84% 6350<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">JOHNSON CONTROLS 30.66 -3.83% 420<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SUPERVALU INC 13.26 -3.63% 500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WILLIAMS COS INC 20.70 -3.63% 1095<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KEYCORP 8.05 -3.59% 26860<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERICAN CAPITAL 5.64 -3.59% 21196<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIDELITY NATIONA 28.65 -3.31% 2500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MARSHALL &ILSLEY 8.77 -3.23% 1186<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KB HOME 17.00 -3.19% 1800<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ALTERA CORP 23.6800 -3.11% 300<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SLM CORP 11.7100 -2.90% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PRINCIPAL FINL 29.36 -2.88% 152<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FANNIE MAE 1.04 -2.8 % 157572<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FLUOR CORP 47.60 -2.78% 6500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">US STEEL CORP 54.05 -2.77% 24170<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GENWORTH FINANCI 15.9200 -2.75% 4974<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EXPEDIA INC 23.05 -2.54% 900<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MICRON TECH 8.86 -2.53% 12110<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">STARBUCKS CORP 26.36 -2.51% 3904<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Today’s Trivia: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">On this date in 1820, the ship taking Charles Darwin on his scientific voyage (which yielded his theory on evolution) was first launched. What was the name of the ship?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The currency of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Haiti</st1:country-region></st1:place> is the gourde. Never knew that. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Best Quotes:</span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> SEC Meeting With Exchanges Yields No Cause for Plunge 2010-05-10 21:37:05.194 GMT By Jesse Westbrook<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Heads of the biggest <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> trading venues could provide no clear reason for last week’s stock- market selloff in meetings today with the Securities and Exchange Commission, two people familiar with the matter said.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> The chief executive officers of NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., Bats Global Markets Inc., Direct Edge Holdings LLC, International Securities Exchange Holdings Inc. and CBOE Holdings Inc. saw no evidence that a mistaken order caused the plunge, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 9.2 percent on May 6, its biggest tumble since the crash of 1987, before paring losses and closing down 3.2 percent. Almost $700 billion was erased from American equity markets over one eight- minute span, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> The CEOs earlier took a step toward aligning trading rules to prevent conflicting systems from worsening stock-market plunges. The group meeting with Chairman Mary Schapiro agreed on a framework for “strengthening circuit breakers and handling erroneous trades,” according to a commission statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Regulators and exchanges face pressure from lawmakers and President Barack Obama’s administration to offer proposals aimed at preventing future crashes even though the SEC hasn’t determined what caused last week’s free-fall. Schapiro and exchange officials gave Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner an update on progress they’ve made at a briefing today.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Circuit Breakers<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> At the two-hour meeting at the SEC, Schapiro and representatives from the NYSE, Nasdaq and other trading venues discussed the need to revise market-wide circuit breakers and implement halts for individual stocks, the people said.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> The New York Stock Exchange currently has circuit breakers that pause trading when the entire market falls 10 percent before 2 p.m. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">New York</st1:state></st1:place> time. The NYSE also uses so-called liquidity replenishment points, which slow trading in companies that experience sudden price moves.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> The triggering of liquidity replenishment points on May 6 encouraged orders to flow to alternative platforms with few if any buyers, worsening the decline, NYSE Euronext Chief Operating Officer Larry Leibowitz said last week.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Schapiro and exchange heads discussed specific percentage figures that would trigger new circuit breakers, said the people. Plans will be refined over the next day, according to the SEC statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Swamped Demand<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> The May 6 plunge swamped demand, pushing share prices of companies from Accenture Plc to Exelon Corp. to pennies. Nasdaq announced it would cancel trades on all exchanges that were more than 60 percent above or below prices at 2:40 p.m. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">New York</st1:state></st1:place> time, just as equities plummeted.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Proposing regulations to handle such erroneous trades was a focus of Schapiro’s meeting with executives, with discussions focusing on how to best define what constitutes a false trade, said the people. The exchanges agreed that new rules are needed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;"> Schapiro, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and executives from the NYSE, Nasdaq and CME Group Inc. will testify on the market rout before a House Financial Services subcommittee tomorrow.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-12367155911901882172010-05-10T09:01:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.656-04:00Morning Note...<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures up ~5% this morning as macro-news out of <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> rules the day. I’ll let smarter folks than I dive into the granularity of the $1 trillion rescue package, but here are the basic details:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">The immediate funding plan consists of:<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• €60bn available immediately from EU's emergency fund (using Section 122 of EU Constitution' does NOT require parliamentary approval.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• Up to €440bn available thru individual EU govts (likely will require parliamentary approval; we'll get more details in press conf this Wed)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• €220bn from IMF<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">In addition to funds, the following measures were announced:<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• G7 has agreed to re-establish temp USD swap facilities<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• 6 month LTRO reintroduced by ECB (Long-Term Refinancing Operation; was originally wound down in April). Full allotment will come by May 12, at a rate fixed<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">• ECB will buy eurozone govt & private debt -- scope of purchases yet to be determined. This was a surprise, as ECB never utilized QE as a policy tool during the crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Since initial announcement last night, multiple central banks say they have already started purchasing government bonds.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">6:15 *FRENCH, ITALIAN CENTRAL BANKS BUYING GOVERNMENT BONDS<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> 5:20 *BUNDESBANK SAYS IT IS BUYING GOVERNMENT BONDS TODAY<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Elsewhere, the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place> election results remain uncertain, causing underperformance of GBP. CSCO reports Wednesday. DIS reports Tuesday. Eurozone Q1 GDP later this week. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s economic data comes tonight. Some heads may roll regarding last Thursday’s market action, as the heads of various exchanges are called to Washington to account for the “fair and orderly market” we saw between 2:40pm and 3pm that day. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What a turn around by the ECB after their commentary and stance late last week. What does this say about what was really going on? For example, we in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> continue to find out more details around the fact that Hank Paulson and his crew truly thought they were saving the world - it was that bad in their eyes. Bad enough to justify an $800 billion TARP package and massive quantitative easing. Thus did Trichet similarly feel that the entire Eurozone was facing certain death? If the situations are parallel, he must have, and the situations in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region></st1:place> must indeed be much worse - and much more contagious - than we think. Of course we'll probably be told otherwise, but it’s worth considering...<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding EuroTARP, it strikes me as interesting - or perhaps ominous - that just as we Americans, in terms of public sentiment or in the form of legislation, are moving away from "too big to fail," <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> takes one giant step in its direction. Just when we were regretting elements of our own overreaching bailout, <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> ignores our current reflection and jumps right in. As someone said on TV recently, the world has certainly progressed by any measure, but these might truly be the “dark ages” for politics and politicians. Don't forget, however, one critical lesson from our TARP days in September 2008...remember the stock market plummet when the bill was not ratified. We all watched the votes come back and watched the DJIA crater in real time as a result. And that's with a relatively simple legislative system. From what I have read so far, in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, when it comes to the largest portion of the bailout funds, each and every country involved needs to ratify the package. I'd be shocked if there wasn't at least one small hiccup along the way.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Also, so much for the patient investor sitting on cash and waiting to buy an orderly pullback. If you are like me and you spent the weekend thinking about how to deploy some cash towards some European value plays like multi-nationals Nestle or Unilever who might benefit from the weaker EUR, you’ve been likewise foiled in your attempt to be a “patient, long-term investor.” Once again, the "natural" course of market behavior has been trumped by "artificial" means. "Don't fight the ECB" and the "Trichet Put" should now be added to the vernacular. Of course, for those rendered giddy by all this when considering the "reflation" ahead in Europe (if US markets behaved at all similarly, ya gotta buy ‘em), just recall the Fall of 2008. Our bailout was announced in mid- to late-September if I recall...and we all remember the market's behavior until the S+P low in March 2009 after the early euphoria and the early short covering... Granted, the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> bailout was anything but a surprise, and qualified for "sell the news" status then, and this ECB move was truly a shock given Trichet's recent commentary. But when we look back at all this in hindsight, we may find some parallels in the investor psychology and stock market behavior following both TARP and EuroTARP. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">One other interesting thing today…food for thought that will surely be missed amidst all the noise:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.2 points, falling to 86.8. The index has posted 18 consecutive monthly readings below 90. The March index continues this trend and is heading in the wrong direction, very inconsistent with the notion that the economy is recovering and that job growth has strength. Nine of the 10 index components fell or were unchanged from February’s. Not the picture of an economic expansion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Sorry for the cut & paste today, but here are the upgrades/downgrades, and some earnings news… UPGRADES include: Yahoo *(YHOO) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna...BP Plc (BP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein...Stifel Financial (SF) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette...People's United *(PBCT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette...CF Industries (CF) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital...Winnebago (WGO) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird...Thor Industries (THO) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird...Albermarle (ALB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank...Regency Centers (REG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank...Cogdell Spencer (CSA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies...Rubicon Technology *(RBCN) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer...Boeing (BA) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman...Northern Trust (NTRS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman...Office Max (OMX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman...Synta Pharma (SNTA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital...Aircastle (AYR) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at FBR Capital...DOWNGRADES: Goodrich (GR) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman...KAR Auction (KAR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman...DragonWave (DRWI) downgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer at CIBC...Comcast *(CMCSA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein...Time Warner Cable (TWC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein...Cablevision (CVC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein...INITIATIONS: SS&C Technologies (SSNC) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies...Telestone Technologies (TSTC) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) reported Q1 results $2,272/$32.03B vs. First Call consensus of $1,101.83/$28.63B...General Steel (GSI) reported Q1 results (11c)/$453M vs. First Call consensus of (14c)/$416.11. General Steel selling prices increased by end of March.The company expects selling prices to stay at 'healthier levels.'...National Health Investors (NHI) reported Q1 FFO 62c vs. First Call consensus of 61c...NRG Energy (NRG) reported Q1 results 22c/$2.22B vs. First Call consensus of 31c/$2.18B. The company attributes $373M decline in income from last year to a $456M decrease in unrealized mark-to-market derivative gains on economic hedges partly offset by contributions from Reliant Energy. NRG Energy reaffirms 2010 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.2B...DISH Network *(DISH) reported Q1 results 52c/$3.06B vs. First Call consensus of 50c/$3.05B. DISH Network added 237,000 net subscribers during Q1.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> higher overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> up 5-8%. Oil +3.5%. Gold -140bps. USD -107bps. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DEAN FOODS CO 12.71 -13.12% 30020<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DYNEGY INC-A 1.33 +11.76% 28293<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">RR DONNELLEY & S 21.60 +11.51% 150<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LIZ CLAIBORNE 7.10 +9.23% 800<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MARSHALL &ILSLEY 8.80 +9.05% 36198<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MANITOWOC CO 13.51 +9.04% 11146<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MGIC INVT CORP 9.35 +8.85% 13433<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ZIONS BANCORP 27.71 +8.37% 6982<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DR HORTON INC 14.14 +8.27% 1500<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERISOURCEBERGE 32.30 +7.99% 197<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GENWORTH FINANCI 15.69 +7.98% 36108<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AFLAC INC 47.76 +7.88% 9654<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CONSTELLATION-A 18.00 +7.72% 500<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COGNIZANT TECH-A 51.10 +7.53% 725<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CITIGROUP INC 4.30 +7.5 % 44200766<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">US STEEL CORP 55.92 +7.19% 120217<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ANHEUSER-SPN ADR 49.08 +7.16% 12700<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HUNTINGTON</span></span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> BANC 6.44 +7.15% 154664<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CIENA CORP 17.24 +7.08% 25485<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">JDS UNIPHASE 11.18 +6.99% 49735<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TELLABS INC 8.73 +6.99% 5050<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ADV MICRO DEVICE 8.96 +6.92% 95237<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FANNIE MAE 1.10 +6.8 % 371935<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WEYERHAEUSER CO 47.69 +6.76% 1600<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EXPEDIA INC 23.46 +6.64% 1400<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CARNIVAL CORP 39.08 +6.54% 25955<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SPRINT NEXTEL CO 4.09 +6.51% 371758<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">JOHNSON CONTROLS 31.60 +6.47% 1705<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HASBRO INC 41.47 +6.42% 100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MICRON TECH 9.11 +6.3 % 123550<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HARTFORD</span></span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> FINL SV 26.89 +6.28% 9529<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HONEYWELL INTL 46.24 +6.25% 421<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SANDISK CORP 39.91 +6.12% 37883<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PLUM</span></span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> CREEK TIMBR 39.40 +5.91% 1308<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HARLEY-DAVIDSON 31.9500 +5.86% 622<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BANK OF <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">AMERICA</st1:country-region></st1:place> 17.12 +5.81% 4046070<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EL PASO CORP 11.70 +5.79% 7392<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LENNAR CORP-CL A 18.50 +5.77% 10350<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KB HOME 17.24 +5.77% 618<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERICAN INTERNA 40.93 +5.76% 83782<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DISCOVER FINANCI 14.89 +5.75% 5247<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WEATHERFORD INTL 16.18 +5.75% 31178<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">NYSE EURONEXT 30.97 +5.74% 8547<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FLUOR CORP 48.56 +5.68% 3109<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SUNTRUST BANKS 29.00 +5.61% 3857<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CAPITAL ONE FINA 44.50 +5.6 % 3047<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CONSOL ENERGY 40.48 +5.58% 5540<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FORD MOTOR CO 12.15 +5.56% 1626352<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIFTH THIRD BANC 14.05 +5.56% 40442<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">APPLE INC 248.92 +5.54% 587090<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TITANIUM METALS 16.25 +5.52% 4550<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DU PONT (EI) 38.21 +5.47% 8075<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GENERAL ELECTRIC 17.79 +5.39% 556412<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LINEAR TECH CORP 29.75 +5.38% 110<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MBIA INC 9.20 +5.38% 79512<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LOWE'S COS INC 26.66 +5.33% 3427<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">E*TRADE FINANCIA 1.58 +5.33% 538088<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TEREX CORP 23.75 +5.32% 5374<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">UNION PAC CORP 74.84 +5.3 % 100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CISCO SYSTEMS 26.02 +5.3 % 279611<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TENET HEALTHCARE 5.60 +5.26% 19850<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CARDINAL HEALTH 35.55 +5.21% 300<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CUMMINS INC 68.71 +5.21% 988<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COACH INC 40.27 +5.2 % 1000<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MASSEY ENERGY CO 34.70 +5.15% 14351<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CIGNA CORP 33.00 +5.13% 250<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DOW CHEMICAL 26.80 +5.1 % 14240<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MCKESSON CORP 66.93 +5.02% 100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Today’s Trivia: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What is the currency of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Haiti</st1:country-region></st1:place>?<b><span style="font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">A little more than 1/3 of your life is spent sleeping, so a 75-year-old will have spent roughly 25 years asleep. <b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Best Quotes:</span></span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=211832646229572274&postID=1236715591190188217" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> “Good Morning - I guess all it took was a trillion dollars. Anyone else have a trillion dollars to throw around? Maybe that guy on the ING commercials with a gazzilion bazillion dollars for retirement wasn't far off on what we'll need for retirement. We should focus on the technicals. We'll have a lot of levels of resistance to break through to get us back to pre flush levels of 1200. Limit up will be +55 ticks on the open for the S&P. As expected Financials are going to be the leaders of the tape. Expect a flurry on the open than a quiet squeeze higher. Oil still leaking, not good. WSJ big article on Nat Gas, get ready. If it wasn't an error on Friday, there is a serious bug in the system. That kind of action is insane. Talk about a total waste of good earnings, completely ignored that 65.2% of companies have beaten estimates this season. If there is a dip today buy it.” --MLCO trader comment <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">“The Euro Area Heads of State published a statement over the weekend. In addition to announcing the implementation of the first round of Greek aid before May 19th, the leadership also announced other key measures. They are ready to “fight speculation” and announced the creation of a “European Stabilization Mechanism.” The Stabilization Mechanism is what will catch the market’s attention tomorrow. Interestingly, beyond serving the purpose of “preserving financial stability in </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on">Europe</st1:place><span style="color: #666666;">,” there were no details on the measure. Is it going to defend the currency, lend to financial institutions, support sovereign debt? Who knows. If it takes as long as the Greek aid package to work the details out (and in that case the leadership knew what it was going to do), it will be awhile before this “Mechanism” is active. The only real positive from the market’s perspective is that the European leadership may be adopting the “failure is not an option” mentality that puts everything on the table. There have been calls for the ECB to start quantitative easing, but right now, the problem is one in which there are more Euros out there than the market wants, not vice versa. Starting such a program would only really help alleviates the sovereign debt situation by the potential monetization of the debt. Or, the Mechanism could potentially be viewed as a “European TARP.” The EU could use it to plug whatever holes arise in the financial architecture of the Euro zone. If so, there are numerous challenges to adoption and implementation. Look how tough implementation was here in the </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;">, a single nation, as opposed to a collective. The </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> also had the benefit of a financial leader, Ben Bernanke, was a foremost authority on the challenges being faced strongly, who supported TARP’s approval and aided in its implementation. Although the EU and ECB may begin to get creative in countering the crisis in confidence they themselves have created, another press release has not boosted our confidence in their ability to execute.” --O’Rourke, BTIG</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-52538200510865512502010-05-07T09:14:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.663-04:00Morning Note...<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></meta><meta content="Word.Document" name="ProgId"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Generator"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Originator"></meta><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="country-region" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Keeping it short and sweet, apologies, but there are plenty of moving parts to watch this morning… Futures up ~50bps as markets digest yesterday’s unprecedented market slide (and some trade cancellations out of the NASDAQ), U.K. elections leading to a “hung Parliament,” German ratification (at least in the lower house) of the Greek bailout, riots in Greece, and a blowout jobs number. Let’s start with jobs… The Unemployment Rate came in at 9.9% versus the 9.7% estimate. The Official Change in Nonfarm Payrolls blew away the estimate, coming in at +290k versus +190k expected. Average hourly earnings and average weekly hours were unchanged. Interesting to note that futures were +1% just ahead of the positive jobs data and have sold off to +50bps after. Sell the news, perhaps? Or was the jobs “whisper number” more like +400k?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding Greece, what may have started this week's debacle was the ECB's Sunday night statement saying this was a "Greek specific, one off" issue vs. a broader EU credit issue. Clearly the market felt like the ECB didn't "get it". To that extent, the ECB may have finally woken up, as news wires report that the ECB is holding a conf. call with 47 European banks. In other news, G7 finance ministers will discuss Greek situation today during a morning conference call. Both Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting that Japanese Finance Minister Kan has said that the ministers are unlikely to call for forex intervention, but does not speculate further about the call. Also, German March Industrial Production was better-than-expected, and the Bank of Japan announced last night that it would pump 2 trillion yen (~$21.8B) into the financial system to help stabilize markets. The emergency measure represents the bank's first same-day repurchase operations since December when credit concerns at Dubai World sparked a global flight out of higher-yielding assets. The injection was the largest since December 2008, the last time the BOJ lowered its target interest rate. Note that GS shareholder meeting is today. Will there be a settlement with the SEC, or won’t there? Regarding the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place>, here’s the Bloomberg story:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Pound Plunges as <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place> Election Fails to Produce Clear Winner 2010-05-07 10:21:42.637 GMT<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The pound sank the most since 2008 against the euro and bonds tumbled as the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place> election failed to produce an outright winner, fueling concern that measures to tame the budget deficit will be delayed. The currency fell to a 13-month low against the dollar and gilts dropped after David Cameron’s Conservatives fell more than 30 seats short of winning a majority in Parliament. Losses on 10-year gilts pushed the yield up by the most since October. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said his Labour Party government should have a “first go” trying to remain in power, while Cameron said Labour had lost its “mandate to govern.” “People are increasingly taking fright as to the unfolding political backdrop,” said Jeremy Stretch, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">London</st1:city></st1:place>. “Gilt yields have rocketed. That’s not a particularly ringing vote of confidence, and sterling is reacting accordingly as well.” The pound plunged 2.5 percent against the euro, the biggest slump since December 2008 based on closing prices, to 87.42 pence as of 11:08 a.m. in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">London</st1:city></st1:place>. It fell 1.4 percent to $1.4629, after plunging to lowest level since April 2009. The currency pared its decline after Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said the Conservatives, who have pledged to cut the deficit more quickly than the other parties, deserve the first chance at forming a government. Clegg’s party is <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Britain</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s third-largest and may hold the balance of power. The difference in yield, or spread, between 10-year gilts and equivalent-maturity German bonds widened to 119 basis points, the most since August 1998, according to Bloomberg generic data.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Sitting on the front lines yesterday, the feel was this… the -2% market fade to -4% was relatively orderly and – given our 80% rally off the March 2009 lows – was really no great surprise given the images on TV of Greek riots and the “wall of worry” facing equity markets. But that move from -4% to down more than 8% was <i>lightning fast</i>, and – to be honest – scared the hell out of people, myself included. That was not normal action – not in a “fair and orderly” marketplace. Unfortunately we don’t know the answers to yesterday’s key question after the close: was it real? Was it an error? Was it computer driven? Are algo and high frequency traders to blame? I am not going to speculate at this time simply because there are more experienced and more intelligent people than me worth reading who will pour through the data and hopefully give us all answers. But I can tell you this – there is no way, given that move yesterday, that you come into today with more confidence in the market mechanics and infrastructure than yesterday. The take-away, at some level, has to be mistrust of markets, politicians, et. al. Right? (As mentioned above, it is worth noting, by the way, that the NASDAQ said it will cancel trades of 286 securities that fell or rose more than 60% from 2:40pm yesterday.) I dunno…for my part, it makes me think about the unclear and unstable times we live in, and takes me back to tangible assets and precious metals, to be honest. Doesn’t that simply have to be a portion of everyone’s portfolio when you see the “clear and transparent” <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> markets tick down 9.8% in a day, real or not?? (See more on this in the quote section below.) By the way, gotta love CNBC, trotting out Nouriel Roubini at the first sign of market panic. Yesterday they had him on the phone in real time and today he’s a guest panelist. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> lower overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> down 1%. USD -15bps. Oil -50bps. Gold +35bps. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">RADIOSHACK CORP 18.73 -5.59% 2500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COGNIZANT TECH-A 46.95 -3.69% 6160<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AUTODESK INC 31.63 +3.5 % 1200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DIRECTV-A 36.11 +3.35% 400<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GEN GROWTH PROP 16.35 +3.22% 831136<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MGIC INVT CORP 8.99 +2.98% 22000<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CONAGRA FOODS 24.50 +2.9 % 600<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIFTH THIRD BANC 13.99 +2.79% 19392<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">OFFICE DEPOT INC 6.00 +2.74% 4075<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COMERICA INC 40.35 -2.61% 14550<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EXPEDIA INC 23.66 +2.6 % 300<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">UNITEDHEALTH GRP 29.96 +2.46% 100<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FORD MOTOR CO 12.07 +2.46% 4300881<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DYNEGY INC-A 1.28 +2.40% 100<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">JDS UNIPHASE 11.20 +2.38% 147886<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERICAN INTERNA 37.62 +2.37% 366806<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EATON CORP 69.57 -2.34% 160<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LEXMARK INTL-A 35.38 -2.18% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CAPITAL ONE FINA 43.98 +2.11% 1750<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ALTERA CORP 24.45 +2.09% 322<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CVS CAREMARK COR 35.95 +2.01% 450<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Today’s Trivia: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">By the time you are 75 years old, how many years will you have spent sleeping?<b> <o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Sir Galahad was known for virtue and purity. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Best Quotes:</span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> BCAP trader commentary –<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">“With the S&P 500 trading down 3.24% yesterday is shouldn't surprise anyone that futures are currently up 65 bps. That was clearly an enormous move and it will be really tempting for a number of investors to look at their screens and try and figure out what companies are "on sale."<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">As things quieted down after the close last night and we took a look back at our flow the themes became even more apparent. As we mentioned yesterday, we did NOT see a lot of mutual fund selling until AFTER 3pm (believe it or not). Moreover, we saw very little short selling. However, what we did see was DRAMATIC risk reduction from the hedge fund community in major size. In fact, at one point late in the afternoon a custom basket we made of popular shorts almost went unchanged on the day. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Given the fact that there still seems to be no clear understanding of "exactly" what happened between 2:30pm and 3:00pm, I think from a psychological perspective it will be really tough for investors to be aggressively seeking risk into the weekend irrespective of the result from the employment number at 8:30am. I think the vast majority of money managers will not feel the need to "be a hero" and will be quite comfortable waiting to make larger bets until things make a bit more sense. Keep in mind the P&L swings everyone had to stomach yesterday (good and bad). THATS WHY I THINK A DRAMATIC RALLY TODAY IS A REALLY UNLIKELY SCENARIO. With that being said, I will be bidding for retailers today 1) because I want to supply liquidity and I think my clients will be more likely to sell than buy today and 2) because I think that will work with a little patience (don't worry, Im good at hedging!) <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">To address exactly what happened yesterday everyone is going to have a different theory. My from standpoint my best guess is that it was a "system issue" but it wasn't anyones fault. Electronic markets (and this is not my specialty) only have so much bandwidth. We see it all the time in individual stocks. You try and execute an order in a stock with news out (or an LBO rumor etc) when everyone is trying to do the same thing and the system essentially pauses and then the stock "gaps" in the direction everyone was going. My analogy would almost be like a damn breaking in a river. Im thinking there was such big risk reduction going on at the same time that basically happened in the S&P 500 which is a scary thought for the marketplace. However, I guarantee you that quantative type traders are quite frustrated they missed incredible opportunities yesterday in stocks like PG and ACN that had mind boggling moves. I would expect that community of investors to be layering the S&P 500 companies with bids way below the market in alot of names "just in case". Unfortunately, the stat arb community has had performance problems (from what I understand) and they are typically supply a lot of the liquidity on a daily basis for the marketplace. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Did anyone see the VIX yesterday? The CBOE S&P Volatility Index is was up 31.6% and is now up over 50% in the last 3 trading days. If investors are looking to protect their portfolio's they are going to have to pay up for it in a major way. For example, the 10 day historical volatility of the MVRX index is literally double that of the 100 day historical volatility (and current implied vol is WAY higher than that). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">Other asset classes will continue to trade with really high correlation to equities as the Euro is rallying back sharply versus the USD and chatter of a emergency G7 meeting is helping sovereign credit move in from the wides.”</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-59144286657314189732010-05-06T09:09:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.665-04:00Morning Note...<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures down ~30bps this morning as EUR weakness (1.27!!) and USD strength drive many macro-types to speculate about the long-term prospects for the euro and the European Union. Additionally, hotly contested <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> elections and their looming $170 billion budget shortfall – not to mention the fates of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region>, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region></st1:place> – have investors concerned. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> economic data was mixed, depending on your perspective. Q1 Nonfarm Productivity was +3.6% vs. the +2.6% survey but the prior reading was +6.3%. Unit Labor Costs were lower, at -1.6% vs. the -0.7% estimate and the -5.6% prior. Initial Jobless Claims were 444k vs. the 440k estimate and the 451k prior. Continuing Claims were 4.594M vs. 4.610M estimated. Same-store-sales for retailers are out today, and on the aggregate they look worse than expected. See quote section below for the most recent summary. Note that Geithner and Paulson will testify before Congress today, and Bernanke speaks in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Chicago</st1:city></st1:place>. It’s worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs CDS are wider than Citi’s for the first time since February 2009 (RBC research) and that the VIX is up 56% since Monday April 26<sup>th</sup> and closed over its 200-day moving average (BTIG). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">As I consolidate the morning’s slew of news/research, four important themes – for the next 48 hours – come to the fore: First, the ECB interest rate decision, which hit the tape at 7:45am, to leave rates unchanged at 1%. The read-through there might be bearish as they have left themselves at least 1% of room to actually cut rates if the European situation becomes more dire. (Bloomberg headline: <i><span style="font-style: italic;">ECB Keeps Rate at 1%, May Be Forced Into Crisis Mode</span></i>.) Second, tomorrow’s official jobs report. Third, the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place> elections and how they begin to address their massive budget shortfall. (See commentary below…How would austerity measures play with the Brits? Would we see Greek-like strikes? Note that Greek strikes are no joke – three people were killed!) And fourth, the German vote on ratifying the Greek bailout this weekend. Again, people are starting to ask the question: after thousands of years of culture-clash, religious fervor, and outright war, is the Eurozone a viable organization? Or will it prove a failed experiment and – in hindsight – a blip on the radar of the larger European history?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place>, the guys at Capital Economics posted this commentary yesterday:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Whatever the outcome, the key economic issue after the election will be the size and timing of the action needed to address the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s fiscal problems. The parties’ existing fiscal plans are all based both on largely unspecified cuts in public spending and optimistic forecasts for the economy. A new Government will come under strong pressure to produce a more credible deficit-reduction plan quickly, almost certainly incorporating further major tax increases.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, the words “counterparty risk” and “exposure” are starting to make the rounds. (Shades of Lehman??) Here’s a solid summary from BCAP – at least for retailers – of where exposure to <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> falls:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Consumer Discretionary: <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">GES – 48% of earnings<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">ANF – 13% of sales and growing<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">TJX – 10% of sales and growing<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">NKE - 30% of sales<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Signet - 25% of sales from the UK<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">NTY – primarily UK, with a bit in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Netherlands</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">SYY – global hospitality supply business, but not big. Also owns a small distributor in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">WFMI – handful of (loss-making) stores in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region> BBY - 10% of its sales and 5% of its EBIT from <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">SPLS - 15% of its sales and 8% of its EBIT from <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">ODP - 17% of its sales and 20% of its EBIT from <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">VFC - 25% of sales<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">PVH - buying Tommy will increase their exposure <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Gaming, Leisure, Lodging:<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">HOG- 15% of total 2009 retail sales were in Europe; also, a stronger dollar hurts them as they are a <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> manufacturer<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">CCL - 39% of revs from Europe<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">RCL - 30% of revs international and most of that is Europe HOT - 16% of fees are from Europe MAR - dont provide revenue breakdown but 6% of their rooms are in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">OEH - about ~40% of profits<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Consumer Staples: <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">KO - Europe 31% of profit, Central & Eastern Europe <6% (these #’s will be lower after CCE deal closes) PEP – Europe 11% of sales TAP – UK 11% of sales CCE – Europe 50% (going to 100% after KO deal closes) COT – UK 18% of sales PM – EU 45%, Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa 24% HNZ - 33% of sales SLE - about 30% of sales KFT - 22% of sales<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">K - 19% of sales<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">PG = 21% sales from West. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">CL = ~19% of op profits (includes S. Pacific) AVP = ~28% of sales (includes E. Europe, ME and <st1:place w:st="on">Africa</st1:place>)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Finally, for those interested in Hedgie performance YTD, this made the rounds yesterday as well:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Performance Numbers YTD<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Brevan Howard, down 0.83% thru 16-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Harbinger, up 0.87% thru 15-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· King Street, up 3.92% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Kingdon, up 4.05% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Maverick, up 5.42% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Millennium, up 4.41% thru 22-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Perry, up 9.94% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Sandell, up 2.48% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Tudor (Global Macro), up 2.64% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Tudor (Quant), up 0.89% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">· Viking, up 1.42% thru 23-Apr<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asian markets are weaker as <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region></st1:place> re-opened over 3% lower after their Monday to Wednesday holiday. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Shanghai</st1:city></st1:place> was also down 4% overnight. Europe lower except for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region></st1:place>. USD +44bps. Oil -2%. Gold +20bps. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">JDS UNIPHASE 12.45 -9.12% 436858<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DILLARDS INC-A 27.01 -5.39% 4150<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ABERCROMBIE & FI 41.85 -5.38% 9225<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SYMANTEC CORP 17.00 +4.62% 156300<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FREDDIE MAC 1.37 -4.2 % 478062<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TARGET CORP 53.73 -4.16% 294960<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BMC SOFTWARE INC 36.50 -4.15% 8800<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GAP INC/THE 23.80 -3.57% 22940<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TITANIUM METALS 14.95 +3.53% 2160<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CBS CORP-B 15.10 -3.08% 10190<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CIGNA CORP 32.80 +2.5 % 900<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COSTCO WHOLESALE 58.94 -2.35% 18294<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MBIA INC 9.60 -2.34% 1930<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TJX COS INC 45.25 -2.31% 4425<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EL PASO CORP 12.05 +2.29% 42500<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WEYERHAEUSER CO 48.85 +2.11% 1330<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Today’s Trivia: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What traits was Knight of the Round Table Sir Galahad most noted for?<b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">Dinosaur roughly translates to “terrible lizard.” </span><b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Best Quotes:</span></span></b><a href="" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="color: #339966; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #339966; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Better Than </span></span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Expected (5)</span></span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: #339966; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #339966; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Costco</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April SSS up 11.0% - slightly <b><span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-weight: bold;">better </span></span></b>than 10.9%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Net Sales $5.83B vs $5.18B, up 13% y/y)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Macy's, Inc.</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> Same-Store Sales Up 1.1% In April -<b><span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-weight: bold;"> better</span></span></b> than 0.1%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">CO.</st1:place> NOW SEES 1Q EPS 2C-4C, SAW BREAK-EVEN, EST. EPS 2C)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Kohl's</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Comparable Store Sales Decline 7.7% - <b><span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-weight: bold;">better</span></span></b> than (8.0%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">Co.</st1:place> Raises 1Q View To EPS 61c-EPS 62c)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Fred's</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> reports April SSS up 0.6%- <b><span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-weight: bold;"> better</span></span></b> than (2.0%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Reported yesterday – CO. WELL-POSITIONED TO MEET THE UPPER END OF VIEW FOR 1Q)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Limited Brands</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Comp Sales Up 4.0% - <b><span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-weight: bold;">better </span></span></b>than 3.3%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(SEES MAY COMP SALES FLAT TO UP LOW SINGLE DIGITS – CONF CALL)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">In-line (1)<o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">TJX</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Comp Sales Up 4.0% - <b><span style="color: #0070c0;"><span style="color: #0070c0; font-weight: bold;">inline </span></span></b>with expectations<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Expects 1Q near high end of range)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="color: red; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: red; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Worse Than Expected (18)<o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Target Corp</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Same-Store Sales Fell 5.9% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than (2.0%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(April Sales In Higher Margin Categories Strong, Sees 1Q EPS Meeting Or Beating 86c Street View)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">BJ's Wholesale</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Same-Club Sales 4.6% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than 5.5%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Total Sales increase 9.5% to $787.0 million from $718.7 million, y/y)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Saks Inc.</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Comp Sales Up 3.2% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red;"> </span></span>than 4.9%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Total Sales $246.9 million vs $238.7 million, up 3.4% increase)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">JCPenney</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> Reports April Comp Sales Fell 3.3% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than (0.8%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">Co.</st1:place> Boosts Forecasts, Sees First Quarter EPS 25c, Est. 24c)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">JW Nordstrom</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Comp Sales Up 7.5% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">better</span></span></b> than 6.8%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Total Retail Sales $636M, Up 13.3%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Dillard's, Inc.</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> Reports April Comp Sales Fell 5.0% -<b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;"> worse</span></span></b> than (0.7%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Total Sales Fell 5% To $406.3M vs. 429.2M, y/y)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Gap Inc.</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Same-Store Sales Down 3.0% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than 0.5%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(CFO - “With sales growth across all of our brands and significantly improved earnings, we are very pleased with our first quarter performance.”)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Abercrombie&Fitch</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">AprilSame-StoreSalesFell7.0%-<b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b>than(3.1%)<br />
<i><span style="font-style: italic;">(Net Sales $214.3 million, up 8% from $199.1 million, y/y)<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Aeropostale</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> Reports April Sales Results; Same Store Sales Decrease 5.0% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse </span></span></b>than (1.4%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">CO.</st1:place> SEES 1Q EPS 46C, HAD SEEN 44C, EST. 45C)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Amer Eagle Outfitters</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Same-Store Sales Fell 6.0% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than (3.9%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">Co.</st1:place> Affirms 1Q Adj EPS 15c-17c; Analysts 17c)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Stage Stores</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April SSS down 8.3% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than (5.0%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">Co.</st1:place> Raises 1Q EPS Forecast 4c-5c vs Analysts 1c)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Hot Topic</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> reports April SSS down 12.5% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse </span></span></b>than (8.0%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Reported yesterday - SEES FISCAL QTR LOSS OF 3C-4C-SHR, HAD SEEN 2C-5C-SHR)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Ross Stores</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Comparable Store Sales Up 3.0% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than 5.7%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(<st1:place w:st="on">Co.</st1:place> Raises 1Q View To EPS $1.15-EPS $1.16)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">The Buckle</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> reports April comparable SSS down 5.7% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than 1.2%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Total Sales decreased 1.1% to 58.4M from $59.1M, y/y)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">The Wet Seal, Inc.</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> Announces April Comparable Store Sales Declined 6.1% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red;"> </span></span>than (4.7%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(CO. SEES EPS AT OR ABOVE HIGH END OF <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">PRIOR</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">RANGE</st1:placetype></st1:place>)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Bon-Ton Stores</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Same-Store Sales Down 5.0% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than Flat<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(April Total Sales Down 5.2% To $189.1M, y/y)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Stein Mart</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> April Same-Store Sales Down 5.4% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than (4.5%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(CEO – “Sales for the combined March-April period, while still slightly negative, represent an improvement over our recent sales trend.”)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Zumiez</span></span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">April Same-Store Sales Up 2.1% - <b><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">worse</span></span></b> than 4.5%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic;">(Reported yesterday – Total Sales 25.7M vs. $23.8M, up <span style="color: #1f497d;"><span style="color: #1f497d;">7.8</span></span>%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">News and Notes<o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;">Cato</span></span></u></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"> Reports April Comp Sales Down 7.0% <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-56637906461533816832010-05-04T09:22:00.001-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.664-04:00Morning Note...<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></meta><meta content="Word.Document" name="ProgId"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Generator"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Originator"></meta><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_editdata.mso" rel="Edit-Time-Data"></link><o:smarttagtype name="State" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="country-region" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">**There will be no Morning Note tomorrow, Wednesday May 5<sup>th</sup>**<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures ~100bps this morning as the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place> markets re-open post-holiday and weigh on global equities. The USD is higher on a flight-to-quality and Gold set a new record high when measured in euro terms. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> is down nearly 2%, led by the financial sector there. Further, bond yields have risen and credit default spreads have widened. Strikes and social unrest continue in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>, where austerity measures needed to pay debt tabs are met with less-than-cheerful throngs of supporters. (<i>May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Greek government workers shut down schools and hospitals and disrupted flights as demonstrators occupied the Acropolis in an escalation of protests against 30 billion euros ($40 billion) of additional wage cuts and tax increases unveiled this week</i>.) Looking broader, there is continued concern for the euro and the EU itself, and the ECB may have to completely re-write its rule book given the change in collateral requirements for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Further, the NY Times this morning has an article on the potential default risks ahead for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region></st1:place>. And, ahead of <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> elections, is there something to the concern that <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> deficit levels are nearly equal to those of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>? In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place>, the recent PMI reading was 55.4, the lowest in six months, and indicates that 1) recent monetary tightening has had the desired effect and 2) perhaps the most recent capital reserve requirement raise – this past weekend – has overshot the mark. Additionally, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region></st1:place> raised rates for the sixth time to 4.5% overnight. Recall this comes on the heels of a new tax on miners announced over the weekend. For our part, CVS, Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) reported better-than-expected earnings, but the recent trend now seems to favor European unrest (in social and financial terms) and looming financial reform over earnings (according to the <i>Washington Post</i>, by the way, “opposition is mounting to the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Lincoln</st1:city></st1:place> plan to force banks to spin off their derivative businesses”). Note that an arrest has been made in the NYC Times Square bombing…supposedly the suspect was caught attempting to board a flight to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Dubai</st1:city></st1:place> last night. Apparently the car bomb – because it did not detonate – has yielded a wealth of evidence. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Looking ahead, recall that Friday’s GS annual shareholder meeting and the Unemployment data will be closely watched. Today, Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales are due at 10am. There could be some television drama on the Hill over the next couple of days, as Hank Paulson (rumored to be heading back to GS to replace Blankfein??), Tim Geithner, and Jimmy Cayne – among others – testify as to what drove the 2008 financial crisis. Regarding BP and energy policy, note that California Governor Ah-nold has come out against off-shore drilling while Alaska Governor Sarah Palin reiterates “drill, baby, drill.” Bloomberg has a good summary of the potential for looming reform in energy policy stemming from the Gulf spill:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BP Gulf Oil Spill Reshaping Energy Debate in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> Congress 2010-05-04 04:00:05.0 GMT By Patrick O’Connor and Lisa Lerer<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The oil leak spreading 5,000 barrels of crude a day in the Gulf of Mexico is reshaping the politics of the energy debate as Congress considers <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> climate policy and lawmakers brace for the November elections…<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">At least three committees -- House Energy and Commerce, House Natural Resources, and Senate Energy and Natural Resources -- plan hearings to investigate the spill during the next month. Obama on March 31 agreed to open new sections of the Atlantic coastline and the eastern <st1:place w:st="on">Gulf of Mexico</st1:place> to new underwater drilling. Administration officials hoped the move would help win Republican support for a climate bill that has languished in the Senate since passing the House of Representatives last June. “From the standpoint of energy independence, in the transitional period, domestic drilling is one of the things that we ought to look at,” said senior Obama adviser David Axelrod. “That hasn’t changed.” The spill now threatens any deal.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">“It could have as big an impact as <st1:city w:st="on">Santa Barbara</st1:city>,” said Philip Verleger, an oil industry expert, referring to the 1969 oil spill off the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">California</st1:state></st1:place> coast that reshaped the country’s environmental policy and was the catalyst for the first Earth Day in 1970. “This is a big setback,” he said. The <st1:place w:st="on">Gulf of Mexico</st1:place> leak solidifies a division in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats on one side who favor more domestic oil and gas exploration, and Democrats who don’t. “To get my vote, any energy or climate bill must prohibit drilling in places where a spill could reach <st1:state w:st="on">New Jersey</st1:state>’s waters,” said Senator Frank Lautenberg, a <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">New Jersey</st1:state></st1:place> Democrat. In one respect, “it really hastens the debate” over an energy bill,” said Dick Durbin of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Illinois</st1:state></st1:place>, the second-ranking Senate Democrat. On the other hand, the safety of offshore drilling now becomes paramount, he said. “It’s a hard case to make until you get down to the safety issues,” Durbin said.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Interesting story on Bloomberg this morning about a disconnect between equities and options volatility:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Stock Market Disconnect in Options Revealing Unsustainable Risk 2010-05-04 04:00:01.1 GMT By Jeff Kearns<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">May 4 (Bloomberg) -- <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> stocks are rallying the most in seven decades, housing prices are stabilizing and the economy is expanding again after the worst recession since the Great Depression. Yet Dean Curnutt, founder of options advisory and brokerage firm Macro Risk Advisors LLC in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">New York</st1:state></st1:place>, is wary. Curnutt studies the equity options market to gauge traders’ expectations of swings in stock prices, or volatility. He’s concerned because he’s picked up mixed signals in recent months. On the one hand, the benchmark measure of volatility on short-dated options -- the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Chicago</st1:city></st1:place> Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX -- fell in mid-April to where it was before the global credit crisis, indicating that investors weren’t expecting any shocks for equities. At the same time, mounting <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> debt and questions as to what the removal of government stimulus measures might mean for the recovery indicate that risks to the financial system remain. That disconnect, Curnutt says, is similar to the one he saw four years ago before stocks peaked, when volatility measures were subdued even as overheated housing prices were creating stresses in the credit markets. Like then, when the euphoria in housing was both propping up stocks and creating longer-term risks, Curnutt is concerned that the forces fueling the current rally -- low interest rates and government borrowing to finance stimulus funding -- may derail it. “These structural deficits can’t continue,” says Curnutt, 40, who started Macro Risk Advisors two years ago after working for more than a decade on equity derivatives desks at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bank of America Corp. “The alternative is very harsh medicine, spending less and battening down the hatches, which is not good for equity prices.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Options Shield…Investors can shield themselves from potential tumult in stocks using options, says Curnutt, who set up Macro Risk to advise institutions about equity derivative strategies and to handle trades for clients. Options give the right but not the obligation to buy or sell shares at a set price on or before expiration. Traders use options to guard against price fluctuations, speculate on share-price moves or bet that volatility will increase or decrease. Thirty-seven years after options appeared on the CBOE, trading has expanded to eight <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> exchanges and volume has climbed steadily, rising in 2009 to a record 3.61 billion contracts.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Risks in System…Curnutt, leading a staff of eight from Macro Risk’s offices near <st1:city w:st="on">Manhattan</st1:city>’s <st1:place w:st="on">Times Square</st1:place>, tracks implied volatility: what options prices are saying about investors’ expectations for market swings. He then combines this information with macroeconomic and financial analysis in a daily report to the firm’s 75 clients, which include hedge funds and pension funds. “We’re trying to understand where the risks in the system are,” says Curnutt, who monitors relationships between market gauges, including the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, credit- default swaps, Treasury yields, sovereign debt and oil. “It’s really just trying to figure out where risk may be overpriced or underpriced.” One place where Curnutt says risk is underpriced is the VIX. Known as the stock market’s fear gauge, the index reflects the cost of using S&P 500 options to protect against equity- market turbulence. After surging to a record of 80.86 in November 2008 following Lehman’s collapse, the VIX fell more than 80 percent to an almost-three-year low of 15.58 on April 12. The VIX reversed course last week, surging to 22.81 amid debt downgrades of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region></st1:place>. The gauge fell back to close at 20.19 on May 3, just below its 20-year average.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Short-Sighted VIX…For Curnutt, the level of the VIX is misleading -- even after last week’s surge -- because it doesn’t adequately reflect the risks posed by historically low interest rates, growing public debt and the consequences of unwinding government stimulus measures, not to mention the possibility of contagion in financial markets from the debt crisis in Europe. The VIX only reflects expectations for stock swings during the next 30 days and this year has been further depressed by decreasing volatility, which reduces options prices, he says. “The VIX isn’t forward-looking,” Curnutt says. He compares April’s levels to those of late 2006, when the index fell below 10 even as “the housing market was crashing and subprime was exploding.” “Recent history shows us that extremely low volatility can coexist with a market in which systemic risks are very high,” Curnutt says.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Anecdotally, if you’ve tried to buy high quality names like BP, GS, or MEE on their headline news weakness, you’ve probably been run over. Is there something to this? In the past, pre-2008, you probably would have done very well buying blue chips on negative events like the Exxon Valdez or cigarette legislation… But in the current environment it truly feels like there is always another shoe dropping somewhere. It’s impossible to gauge market sentiment from three stocks – moreover it’s actually foolish – but a brain wired to identify patterns can’t help but wonder if this is just the “new normal” investing environment. I can tell you this – the “oversold” conditions of these names and the resulting “catch a falling knife” carnage are certainly not helping John Q. Retail-Investor dip his toe again… <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MSCO ups ANF; positive COST/NKE. AKRX higher on earnings. ALVR misses by 4c. BZH beats by 72c and beats on revs but announces 12.5M share offering. FRO upgrade at DBAB. GHL files for mixed shelf offering. HOLX reports in-line. IVAC beats by 9c. KFN announces $200M credit facility. LF misses by 9c. MCK misses by 3c. NTRI beats by 3c. PBI beats by 1c. RDN beats on revs but misses earnings estimates. PWAV misses by 5c. SIRI beats by 1c. UBS -3% on earnings. VVUS beats by 3c. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> lower overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> lower. USD +80bps. Gold +50bps. Oil -2%. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PITNEY BOWES INC 24.50 -5.33% 300<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EMERSON ELEC CO 51.01 -4.87% 34966<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BAXTER INTL INC 45.49 -4.23% 515005<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MGIC INVT CORP 10.72 -4.11% 2450<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MBIA INC 9.77 -3.93% 67953<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">COGNIZANT TECH-A 53.80 +3.42% 72908<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MCKESSON CORP 67.02 +3.31% 1500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TENET HEALTHCARE 6.15 -3.0 % 7930<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MASTERCARD INC-A 258.00 +2.9 % 58878<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">XEROX CORP 10.76 -2.62% 6900<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FREEPORT-MCMORAN 71.90 -2.5 % 43986<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EDISON INTL 33.84 -2.45% 3420<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PEABODY</span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> ENERGY 44.765 -2.43% 712<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BED BATH &BEYOND 45.8000 -2.37% 500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EOG RESOURCES 110.89 -2.35% 200<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">PNC FINANCIAL SE 66.98 -2.32% 300<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TESORO CORP 13.35 -2.27% 1300<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MASSEY ENERGY CO 36.65 -2.24% 1964<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">US STEEL CORP 53.77 -2.18% 41961<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CARNIVAL CORP 41.52 -2.12% 7100<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TEREX CORP 27.60 -2.09% 1400<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AFLAC INC 50.37 -2.06% 3000<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WEATHERFORD INTL 17.56 -2.01% 9160<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Today’s Trivia: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What does the term “dinosaur” mean?<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Varney Speed Lines ultimately became Continental Airlines. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Best Quotes:</span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK5" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK6" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK7" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK8" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK9" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK10" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK11" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK12" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK13" style="color: #666666;"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #006699; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt;">Downshifting to Neutral.</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">In last night’s note, we highlighted the importance to the equity market of the ISM Manufacturing Report crossing above 60. Today our expectations that the markets were approaching an important juncture were confirmed as the April ISM Manufacturing Report posted a reading of 60.4. This reading is important. It definitively shifts our view out of the bullish camp where we have resided since October 7, 2008 into the neutral camp.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">We can cite numerous reasons for remaining bullish, most of which we believe in enthusiastically, including earnings and economic recovery combined with inexpensive valuations. This is an environment in which most investors are underexposed to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> equities although they offer the best combination of growth and safety for a global investor. Investor skepticism remains high as investors have an insatiable appetite for bonds and little appetite for equities. Finally, the Fed appears to be afraid of its own shadow, indicating that monetary policy will remain accommodative for some time. All of that being said, we believe today’s ISM Report provides the signal that the recovery rally from the March 2009 low is essentially over. Although there might be additional single digit gains left over the intermediate term, it is unlikely they will be compelling enough for opportunity to outweigh the risk. The ISM simply serves as confirmation for the economic gains the equity market has already discounted. As we noted last night, we do not foresee a major down leg, but we do envision a market that marks the time where rallies should be sold and dips could be bought. We would use rallies following strong economic data as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios and de-risk, as well as initiate hedges. As we noted a couple of weeks ago, the environment should be one that offers opportunities on both the long and short side for individual stock pickers.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">Below is a table highlighting the performance of the S&P 500 leading up to and following the ISM Manufacturing’s cross above 60. The average performance during the 12 months following the first cross above is 4.28% and over the two years following it is 11.92%. In most episodes over most time frames, the S&P 500 wound up higher, but gains were unimpressive considering the increasing level of economic activity. Since the earnings and economic recovery have been a cornerstone of our bullishness over the past 6 months, it is hard to justify remaining as enthused if the increased economic activity from these levels only translates into modest market gains. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">As far as how the data presents, the 1987 crash is included within the table. Even if one were to view that as an outlier (although many would not), dropping the performance would only boost the 1 year forward average return to 6.1% and the 2 year to 12.23%. If you segregate the data into periods post-1970 and pre-1970, which places 6 episodes in each time frame, the post-1970 returns are notably weaker than the pre-1970 returns. We have viewed this recovery and modeled our strategy based upon the activity of the previous two worst post-war recessions, during 1973-1974 and 1981-1982. As the table below shows, those recoveries were also the ones with the highest Unemployment Rate at the time the ISM Manufacturing crossed 60 (1976 and 1983). They both also had similarly strong rallies in the year preceding the crossover. Over the past 52 weeks, the S&P 500 is up 37%. In 1976, the rally over the preceding year was 31%. In 1983, it was 52%. Those continue to be our benchmark environments and as such, the average forward returns were among the weakest. As much as we believe in the bullish catalysts we mentioned early on, we believe risk and opportunity are finally in balance. We need better valuations (lower prices or higher earnings) to compel us back into the bull camp. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">Mike O’Rourke, CMT </span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">Chief Market Strategist<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;">212.593.7564<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><span id="goog_616127049"></span><span id="goog_616127050"></span><br />
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</div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-74170611033255229712010-05-03T09:15:00.003-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.667-04:00Morning Note...<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></meta><meta content="Word.Document" name="ProgId"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Generator"></meta><meta content="Microsoft Word 11" name="Originator"></meta><link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbbatory%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="State" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="country-region" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures ~50bps higher this morning as markets digest several key developments…in NYC, a possible terrorist attack in Times Square was averted…in Europe, the IMF & EU agreed to a $146 billion bailout of Greece and will make payments ahead of Greece’s May 19<sup>th</sup> debt roll and the ECB eased all collateral requirements…additionally, new austerity measures were announced and protests among the Greek populace continue…bond yields have come in and CDS are tighter across Europe, including Portugal, Ireland, and Spain…in Omaha, Nebraska, Warren Buffet is defending Goldman Sachs while the NY Post is reporting a settlement is imminent…further, the Department of Justice announced they have been investigating GS concurrently with the SEC…note that Goldman’s annual shareholder meeting is this Friday…in China, reserve requirements were raised once again and investor Marc Faber called for a crash within “9-12 months”…in Australia, a mining tax was introduced for 2012 implementation, and has global mining stocks trading lower…seven more U.S. bank failures were announced over the weekend, bringing the 2010 total to 64…United & Continental have agreed to a $3 billion deal, creating the world’s largest airline…Avis raised its bid for Dollar Thrifty…financial reform continues to move ahead as the “Volcker Rule” still lives – a bill is due on the President’s desk ahead of the May 31<sup>st</sup>-June 4<sup>th</sup> recess in Congress…and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to pressure BP, RIG, and the Obama Administration for their recent support of offshore drilling. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Note that the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region></st1:place> are closed today. Looking ahead, we’ll get auto sales today and retail sales on Thursday. The <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place> election is May 6<sup>th</sup>. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place> holds major elections May 9<sup>th</sup>. Today also brings U.S. ISM Manufacturing data, and a blowout number is expected. Friday we’ll see the Official Nonfarm Payrolls data and the Unemployment Rate. Earnings continue to take a “back seat” to financial reform and European austerity/bailouts, but 1/6<sup>th</sup> of the S&P 500 reports this week. Bellwether earnings include big media (CBS, TWX, NWS) and European financials (UBS, HSBC, RBS). It’s worth noting that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Harrisburg</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">PA</st1:state></st1:place> is set to declare bankruptcy as it is expected to miss a bond payment today. Further, the <st1:place w:st="on">Times Square</st1:place> bombing goes into the ever-growing “near miss” pile, and markets aren’t paying much attention to it at all…but it’s worth noting that there are plenty of “unknown unknowns” that could easily roil equity markets world-wide. Given the rally we’ve had, aren’t markets absolutely “priced for perfection?” If so, there’s plenty of room to the downside for geopolitical or terrorist risk to unfold… <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding the “big picture,” I liked this morning’s quick summary from RBC:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><b><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Reasons to love the market-<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- 3.2% GDP in March was led by consumer spending coming back, and GDP has expanded for 3 straight qtrs.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- Friday's job report should show some meaningful job growth<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- Companies across the spectrum are all being bullish on the macro environment (even hospitals)- HMA, V, CAT, UPS, Dupont to name a few.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><b><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Reasons to hate the market-<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- money market funds have dropped from $4 Trillion to $2.87 Trillion since early '09 (Barrons)<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- Zacks saying the sell side has more Buy ratings relative to all the stocks they cover than at any point in the last 5 years.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- Stocks are up 80% from the bottom<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">- coinciding with the rally since '09, more stocks are registering as "overbought" on a variety of metrics more than at anytime in the last 5 years (RAJA strategist).<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">For those excited by the Greek bailout, consider this morning’s warning from Dennis Gartman:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">THE FOREX MARKET REMAINS FOCUSED UPON EUROPE as European finance ministers gathered last evening in <st1:city w:st="on">Brussels</st1:city> and approved a scaled down bail-out for <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>, designed, they hope, to prevent <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> from defaulting on its huge and rising debt load. For the moment then the threat of default on the part of the Greek government has been lifted… with the operative words here being “for the moment.” More problems exist, and we should have every doubt… a lesson drawn from history… that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> shall not be able to abide by its newly imposed “austerity measures” and will remain as profligate in the future as it has in the past. To think otherwise is naïve indeed. Thus, it is but a matter of time until <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> does default, for her citizens will not accept the measures that shall be imposed upon them for long before rebelling. The Centre-Left and the arch-Left are already in the streets protesting, tossing Molotov cocktails, fighting with the police, and this will become more and more common place as we proceed through the summer. But for now, everyone is breathing a bit easier than they were late last week… for now.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Barron’s positive JNJ & ALK and defends BP, RIG, APC, and the PALM deal. CITI ups TW. CSFB ups CLH. Janney ups PNK. JPHQ ups NIHD. MSCO ups INTU. UBSS ups MTD. CITI cuts PHM. UBSS cuts VMC. WEFA cuts NWE. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia weaker overnight (<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region></st1:place> closed thru Weds.) Europe slightly lower (<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place> closed.) USD +40bps. Gold flat. Oil flat. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ALLEGHENY ENERGY 22.78 +4.59% 500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GEN GROWTH PROP 16.20 +3.18% 1000<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TESORO CORP 13.53 +2.89% 29456<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LOEWS CORP 38.25 +2.71% 100<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">JDS UNIPHASE 13.36 +2.69% 4250<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">NUCOR CORP 46.45 +2.49% 2873<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SYSCO CORP 32.30 +2.41% 1699<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIFTH THIRD BANC 15.25 +2.25% 2500<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GENWORTH FINANCI 16.88 +2.18% 2400<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CITIGROUP INC 4.46 +2.06% 3766119<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Today’s Trivia: </span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">In 1934, a man named Walter Varney debuted his airline (Varney Speed Lines) with a 530-mile flight between <st1:state w:st="on">Colorado</st1:state> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Texas</st1:state></st1:place>…what was his airline destined to become?<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></b><st1:state w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Alaska</span></st1:state><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> boasts the largest seafood industry in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Louisiana</st1:state></st1:place> is second. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Best Quotes:</span></b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK5" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK6" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK7" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK8" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK9" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK10" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK11" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK12" style="color: #666666;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.do" name="OLE_LINK13" style="color: #666666;"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;"> “Good Morning - </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> finally has their bailout. Seems to have a ton of stipulations on cuts. It requires fiscal responsibility that a country that has a debt levels that stand at 115% of GDP can conform to, call me a pessimist. For the time being though the Greeks have avoided default, and the S&P is up. The Euro is week on the heels of this, and the Dollar and Yen are stronger. May Day celebration is going on around the world. Reserve requirements higher in </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;"> would normally have a negative effect on commodity prices, but economic indicators are still bullish. Also the Oil slick is still Trying to be fixed, and that will have a negative impact on new drilling in the </span><st1:place style="color: #666666;" w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place><span style="color: #666666;">. Lots of data this week to absorb. Payrolls end the week. Auto sales kick it off. Shelia Blair chimes in on the Financial reform plans, I hope they listen to her. Technically support is 1176.75 last weeks low, 1171 is a 4 week low. 1190 was the break on Friday, and nothing meaningful until 1200. Have a good day.” --trader note </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-17361455974080995862010-04-30T09:22:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.657-04:00Morning Note...<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures ~10bps lower this morning on in-line economic data in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> and tightening default spreads in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> ahead of the long weekend and Monday’s European bank holiday. WSJ headlines regarding a criminal probe into Goldman Sachs’ trading activities (see more on this below) are weighing slightly on markets, along with weaker-than-expected earnings from banking giant Barclay’s (BCS; -7%) overseas. Regarding <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Greece</st1:place></st1:country-region>, credit spreads have tightened considerably as expectations that an official bailout deal will be struck today or over the weekend mount. However, beware <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Spain</st1:place></st1:country-region>…note this headline from Bloomberg this morning: “Spanish Unemployment Tops 20%, Hurting Deficit Fight.” In <st1:place w:st="on">Asia</st1:place>, Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.1%. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">In economic news, U.S. Q1 GDP came in at +3.2% vs. the +3.3% expectation. Q1 Personal Consumption (always key when 70% of the economy is consumer-driven) was +3.6% vs. the +3.3% expectation. In earnings news, McAfee is 11% lower premarket on earnings. Monster Worldwide is also lower (lowered guidance slightly) despite a beat. Nasdaq reported 3c light. Looking ahead, U of Mich Consumer Confidence is due at 10am today, and the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index data is due at 9:45am. In other news, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Pennsylvania</st1:state></st1:place> state capital may file for bankruptcy sooner than later. Is this the “canary in the coal mine” (see “sovereign debt, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>” or “Stearns, Bear” if you are tracking all this at home) for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> state and municipal financial woes? Further, the <st1:place w:st="on">Gulf of Mexico</st1:place> oil spill (by BP) continues to draw attention and negative headlines. Unfortunately the whole thing appears on track to become the largest man-made ecological disaster ever. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Interesting thoughts on financial reform from CSFB’s Mary Whalen yesterday…this is pretty strong language:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">The financial reform bill has the potential to be disastrous because if the agenda to eliminate private speculation in commodity markets prevails, then liquidation will be violent given the recent flows of money towards these markets. Maybe it is the government's final answer to deficit worries: if you force people out of commodities, they will have to support equities and bonds, and given the risks to growth and earnings priced in by equity markets, it means the US Treasury no longer has to worry about demand at auctions or a weak currency generating commodity inflation. It would be the final insult and nail in the coffin for what is left of our capitalist system. It was brought to my attention that national security concerns have been supporting this agenda, and that is a point well worth keeping in mind. It would certainly buy the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> 10 more years of additional time to reach energy independence. Be very cautious though, bank stocks would take a strong hit, and so would energy companies.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>, Bloomberg posted the following table yesterday, which offers some granularity in terms of exposure to potential default (formatting a mess, sorry):<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The following table shows European financial institutions’ stated exposure to <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Greek debt three levels to BB+, or junk, and lowered <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s rating two steps to A-on April 27. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s rating was lowered one step to AA on April 28. The figures were provided to Bloomberg News in interviews and e-mails, or culled from company reports and presentations, and are subject to change. The list is in alphabetical order.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">COMPANY EXPOSURE TO:<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> <st1:country-region w:st="on">GREECE</st1:country-region> <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">PORTUGAL</st1:country-region></st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Aegon EU92 million EU58 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Allianz EU900 million EU500 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> net sovereign net sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Aviva GBP500 million part of GBP1.2 billion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> exposure to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>,<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region></st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Axa EU600 million EU900 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Barclays no comment no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">BBVA “immaterial” “immaterial”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">BNP Paribas “negligible” vs<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> Greek banks; “very limited” loans<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> to Greek companies<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">CNP Assurances EU113 million EU154 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Commerzbank EU3.1 billion no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Credit Agricole owns Emporiki Bank<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> EU850 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Credit Suisse “not material” “not material”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Deutsche Bank “not much” direct no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> exposure<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Deutsche Postbank EU1.3 billion no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Dexia no comment no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Fortis EU4.1 billion EU3.1 billion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Hypo Real Estate EU7.9 billion EU1.7 billion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign; EU2 sovereign; EU3.7<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> billion non- billion non-sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">ING EU3 billion EU1.9 billion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Intesa EU1 billion part of EU1.5 billion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign exposure to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region></st1:place>,<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> <st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region></st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">KBC about EU1.2 billion about EU600 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Lloyds “not material” “not material”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Monte Paschi EU20 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Munich</span></span></i></st1:city></st1:place><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> Re EU2.1 billion EU800 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Natixis “negligible” “insignificant”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Nordea no comment no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Prudential no exposure no exposure<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">RBS < GBP1 billion GBP1.4 billion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">SEB “very limited” no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Societe Generale owns 54% of Geniki no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> Bank<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Standard Chartered no exposure no exposure<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Swiss Life SF335 million SF170 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Swiss Re SF482 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">UBS “not material” no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">UniCredit “not material” no comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Zurich</span></span></i></st1:city></st1:place><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> Financial < $520 million < $520 million<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> sovereign sovereign<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Goldman Sachs (GS; -3.5%) is trending down this morning on the aforementioned “criminal probe into trading” as reported by the WSJ. Not sure about this one. First of all, if government wanted to, I am sure it could find plenty of gray areas – legally and ethically – in the business of institutional trading. Second, from my objective, outsider’s viewpoint, this just strikes me as silly. If you indict Goldman for trading practices (which have always seemed above-board to me, but what do I know…) then you basically need to indict every financial institution with a trading operation, and you’d probably be indicting “free markets” and capitalism right along with them. Recently, I mentioned how the GS testimony before the Senate reminded me of <i><span style="font-style: italic;">A Few Good Men</span></i>…and someone went so far as to script a pretty funny parody that I posted here yesterday. Today, however, I will do it myself… Who remembers <i><span style="font-style: italic;">Animal House</span></i> and Otter’s speech defending the Deltas before the Greek council (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1Y80ue92Ao)? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Otter/Blankfein/Viniar: The issue here is not whether we broke a few rules, or took a few liberties with our [trading counterparties]; we did. (winks) <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">But you can't hold a whole [firm] responsible for the behavior of a few sick, perverted [traders]. For if you do, then shouldn't we blame the whole [financial] system? <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">And if the whole [financial] system is guilty, then isn't this an indictment of our [American business practices] in general? <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">(The other [banks] cheer; Otter/Blankfein/Viniar addresses the [Subcommittee Chair] directly) <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">I put it to you, [Carl Levin]! Isn't this an indictment of our entire American society? <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">(The [other banks] cheer again) <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Well, you can do what you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you bad-mouth the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States of America</st1:country-region></st1:place>! Gentlemen! <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">(Otter/Blankfein/Viniar packs his briefcase and leaves the room; the other banks follow, humming "The Star-Spangled Banner")<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AIXG cut at Canaccord. APKT beats by 6c. ATHN misses by 7c. BEXP beats by 3c. BOOM beats by 3c. CSTR beats by 8c. CSUN beats by 8c. CTV beats by 1c. DLB beats by 12c. JRCC beats by 42c. KFN higher on earnings. MFE misses by 3c. MSTR misses by 45c. MWW beats by 2c but guides slightly lower. NETL beats by 3c. PWER beats by 3c. RMD beats by 6c. SWIR beats by 2c. SWKS beats by 1c. SWN beats by 3c. THOR beats by 6c. VLCM beats by 12c. VPRT beats by 4c. VSEA beats by 9c. WFR misses by 6c.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia</span></span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> higher overnight. <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> slightly lower. USD -40bps. Gold +80bps. Oil +85bps. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MEMC ELEC MATER 14.75 -7.47% 43730<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">DR HORTON INC 15.20 +6.74% 225544<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FISERV INC 51.25 -6.29% 14920<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">NEWELL RUBBERMAI 18.00 +6.19% 1445<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">GOLDMAN SACHS GP 152.00 -5.14% 1697843<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">QLOGIC CORP 20.50 -5.0 % 8600<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">APARTMENT INVEST 22.00 -4.89% 100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AVON</span></span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> PRODUCTS 31.09 -4.84% 4500<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SOUTHWESTRN ENGY 38.70 -4.16% 14800<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TRANSOCEAN LTD 75.85 -3.39% 361995<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HALLIBURTON CO 30.65 -3.01% 133807<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EL PASO CORP 12.45 +2.98% 2544<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LIZ CLAIBORNE 9.43 +2.72% 100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SYMANTEC CORP 16.70 -2.54% 100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">TELLABS INC 9.17 -2.45% 6655<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MYLAN INC 21.25 -2.39% 760<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KLA-TENCOR CORP 35.50 +2.33% 3140<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EXPEDIA INC 25.00 +2.0 % 42026<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Today’s Trivia: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">What <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> state boasts the largest seafood industry in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region></st1:place>? Which is 2<sup>nd</sup>?<b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Acetylsalicylic acid is aspirin…ascorbic acid is vitamin C…ethylene glycol is antifreeze…<b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Best Quotes:</span></span></b><a href="" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> Here’s some Friday fun…this made the rounds “street-wide” yesterday, and is actually a re-write of something posted on the blog dopeycowboy about 6 months ago (let’s give credit where credit is due)… I have to say, the cowboy – as always – is spot on with much of this… definitely food for thought as Goldman Sachs is trotted out in front of the proverbial firing squad. Let this serve as a warning for those folks on <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Main Street</st1:address></st1:street> clamoring for the death of Wall Street:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“We are Wall Street. It's our job to make money. Whether it's a commodity, stock, bond, or some hypothetical piece of fake paper, it doesn't matter. We would trade baseball cards if it were profitable. I didn't hear <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region></st1:place> complaining when the market was roaring to 14,000 and everyone's 401k doubled every 3 years. Just like gambling, its not a problem until you lose. I've never heard of anyone going to Gamblers Anonymous because they won too much in Vegas.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Well now the market crapped out, & even though it has come back somewhat, the government and the average Joes are still looking for a scapegoat. God knows there has to be one for everything. Well, here we are.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Go ahead and continue to take us down, but you're only going to hurt yourselves. What's going to happen when we can't find jobs on the Street anymore? Guess what: We're going to take yours. We get up at 5am & work till 10pm or later. We're used to not getting up to pee when we have a position. We don't take an hour or more for a lunch break. We don't demand a union. We don't retire at 50 with a pension. We eat what we kill, and when the only thing left to eat is on your dinner plates, we'll eat that.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">For years teachers and other unionized labor have had us fooled. We were too busy working to notice. Do you really think that we are incapable of teaching 3rd graders and doing landscaping? We're going to take your cushy jobs with tenure and 4 months off a year and whine just like you that we are so-o-o-o underpaid for building the youth of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Say goodbye to your overtime and double time and a half. I'll be hitting grounders to the high school baseball team for $5k extra a summer, thank you very much.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">So now that we're going to be making $85k a year without upside, Joe Mainstreet is going to have his revenge, right? Wrong! Guess what: we're going to stop buying the new 80k car, we aren't going to leave the 35 percent tip at our business dinners anymore. No more free rides on our backs. We're going to landscape our own back yards, wash our cars with a garden hose in our driveways. Our money was your money. You spent it. When our money dries up, so does yours.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The difference is, you lived off of it, we rejoiced in it. The Obama administration and the Democratic National Committee might get their way and knock us off the top of the pyramid, but it's really going to hurt like hell for them when our fat a**es land directly on the middle class of America and knock them to the bottom.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">We aren't dinosaurs. We are smarter and more vicious than that, and we are going to survive. The question is, now that Obama & his administration are making Joe Mainstreet our food supply…will he? and will they?”</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-211832646229572274.post-41220778196444576742010-04-29T09:17:00.000-04:002020-09-21T19:49:09.661-04:00Morning Note...<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Futures are ~60bps higher on the back of better-than-expected economic data and earnings in Europe, a lack of continued debt downgrades (<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region></st1:place>?) in the area, and generally tighter credit default spreads and lower bond yields. Euro-zone April consumer confidence was higher than expected, <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> April home prices rose, and unemployment fell in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Here’s a quick wrap of the euro-news today:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">1) no <st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region> ratings change - Per the FT, there was speculation on Weds that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Britain</st1:country-region> could see its rating cut by S&P (note that the agency has already cut <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region>, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region></st1:place>). However, as of Thurs morning, such a move hasn't occurred, and this is helping sentiment. 2) Santander, Europe's largest bank by market cap, jumps ~3% in European trading after earnings came in better-than-expected 3) European debt spreads continue to behave as the sovereign crisis appears to be under lids for the moment. 4) Italian auctioned off debt this morning on terms better-than-feared. 5) Markets are increasingly comforted by the fact <st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region> seems to have come around and will be making a firm commitment of aid for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Talks between the EU/IMF and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> are due to wrap up this Sunday (EU’s Rehn just said this morning that talks are “about to conclude soon within days”). ECB council member Axel Weber said <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> defaulting on its debt would have "incalculable" consequences on financial markets and other countries. Weber told the Thursday edition of Bild, quoted by Reuters. "Financial aid tied to tough conditions are for all parties concerned the best solution." and 6) Spain’s Finance Minister is on the tape saying that his country will have no trouble financing a EUR16.2B bond redemption in July and won’t need to ask for European Union aid. (JPM)<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">In Asia, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place> was lower overnight for a 6<sup>th</sup> session in a row. Elsewhere, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Brazil</st1:country-region> became the first LatAm country to raise rates, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> lowered rates, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">New Zealand</st1:country-region></st1:place> left rates unchanged. In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> economic news, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 24<sup>th</sup> were 448k vs. the 445k expectation and the 459k prior week. Continuing Claims for the week ending April 17<sup>th</sup> were 4.645M vs. the 4.618M expectation and the prior 4.663M reading. In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> corporate news, HPQ announced plans to buy PALM for $1.2 billion, despite weaker-than-expected earnings from PALM last night. In U.S. earnings news: Exxon Mobile (XOM; -1.5% premarket) reported slightly lower numbers than anticipated…Visa (V; +1%) beat expectations…Motorola (MOT; +7%) beat estimates by 3c…Akamai (AKAM; +11%) beat expectations…Baidu (BIDU; +15%) beat expectations and announced a stock split…First Solar (FSLR; +6%) also beat earnings estimates…Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR; -13%) reported weaker-than-expected…Proctor & Gamble (PG; +1%) reported in-line but slightly raised earnings guidance…Colgate-Palmolive (CL; -1%) beat by 6c…Time Warner Cable (TWC; flat) beat slightly…Kellogg (K; flat) beat by 15c… In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> political news, it appears the Republicans will lay down their financial reform bill filibuster as Senator Shelby announces that [Senator Dodd] “assured me that he will address a number of concerns I have expressed with respect to ending bailouts.” The next vote on opening the bill for debate is slated for today. Reports indicate the BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill is beginning to near the Mississippi River delta in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Louisiana</st1:state></st1:place>, and will quickly exceed the Exxon Valdez disaster in terms of spillage and environmental destruction. The estimates vary from government to BP itself, but it seems safe to say at least 5,000 barrels per day are leaking into the Gulf. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Incidentally, I finally got around to reading the most recent Grant’s Interest Rate Observer (4/16/10 – admittedly, I find Grant’s hard to get through sometimes…) and posted a clip in the quote section below. Essentially Jim Grant is less than convinced that TARP has been the rousing success that the government would have us believe it to be. He also wonders what ammunition our bailout kings would have left were we to tumble into a double-dip at some stage. I think it’s a sobering few paragraphs - see below for the text.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Regarding <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>, I thought this piece – out of BofAMLCO yesterday afternoon – was well-done and offers an interesting perspective:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Greece</span></span></i></st1:country-region></st1:place><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> vs. IBM - Compare & contrast: <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">As the markets finally lose patience with the tortuously slow policy response on <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region>, it was interesting to compare the hand-wringing over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s upcoming May 19th EUR8bn debt 'repayment' versus the muted response to the similar-sized US$8bn buy-back AND 18% dividend hike at IBM. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">All-in-all this encapsulates the yin-yang over the past few weeks of truly strong global corporate earnings and the straitened circumstances of a number of sovereigns. Compare the 'P&L' of IBM and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> for instance. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Greece</span></span></i></st1:country-region></st1:place><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;"> (population 11mn) and IBM (400,000 employees) will have almost exactly the same revenues in 2010 i.e. US$100bn. But there the similarities end - <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place> has expenditure of US$40bn more than its income, while IBM has after-tax income of US$15bn. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">And the balance sheet? Greek debt is close to US$400bn (and rising) while IBM's net debt is US$17bn and falling (despite returning more than $80 billion through dividends and share buybacks since 2003). <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">And when it comes to borrowing costs, IBM 2 year bonds cost them 1.5% vs. 18% for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">The serious point here is that the corporate world is generally in good shape, and we would be enjoying an even stronger bull market were it not for the sovereign and contagion risk at the periphery. (P. Bradshaw).<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Finally, for those who missed it and who might be in need of some comic relief, apparently I wasn’t the only one to draw the parallels between <i><span style="font-style: italic;">A Few Good Men</span></i> and Colonel Jessep’s testimony and the Senate Banking Subcommittee hearings and Lloyd Blankfein’s testimony. This made the rounds yesterday and is pretty funny:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">“Goldman Has A Greater Responsibility Than You Can Possibly Fathom...” Blankfein’s shocking testimony: <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Senator: “Did you order the big short?”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; text-indent: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">Blankfein: “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth... Son, we live in a country with an investment gap. And that gap needs to be filled by men with money. Who’s gonna do it? You Senator? You, Middle Class Consumer? Goldman Sachs has a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom... You weep for Lehman and you curse derivatives. You have that luxury… You have the luxury of not knowing what we know: that Lehman’s death, while tragic, probably saved the financial system. And that Goldman’s existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves pension funds. You don’t want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want us to fill that investment gap. You need us to fill that gap.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic;">We use words like credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligation, and securitization. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent investing in something. You use them as a punch-line. We have neither the time nor the inclination to explain ourselves to a commoner who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very credit we provide, and then questions the manner in which we provide it! We’d rather you just said thank you and paid your taxes on time. Otherwise, we suggest you get an account and start trading. Either way, we don’t give a damn what you think you’re entitled to!!!”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">IRM +3% on earnings. AKAM target increased street-wide after earnings and upgraded at CITI. VRSN in-line earnings and target raised street-wide but tgt cut at JEFF. AOL downgraded at BCAP, UBSS. BofAMLCO ups CAKE, FSLR. BCAP ups CAN, CNX, RHI. BMOC ups RHI. DBAB ups ROK. JEFF ups ABX. JPHQ ups SUSQ. OPCO ups PGI. PIPR ups BEC. BCAP cuts PCX. JPHQ cuts PX. UBSS cuts HL. CVD missed by 15c. OPWV lower on earnings. HOT higher on earnings. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Asia lower overnight (<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region></st1:place> closed). <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> roughly 1% higher. USD -55bps. Oil +2%. Gold -50bps. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">S&P 500 PreMarket 8:30am (last/% change prior close/volume): <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AKAMAI TECH 36.69 +10.58% 171413<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MOTOROLA INC 7.48 +8.09% 3577853<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HARMAN INTL 47.65 -7.15% 9538<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">E*TRADE FINANCIA 1.71 -7.07% 14927644<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EASTMAN KODAK 7.80 -6.59% 403227<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CELGENE CORP 62.79 +5.3 % 125077<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">BRISTOL-MYER SQB 25.35 +4.15% 134425<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">ANHEUSER-SPN ADR 48.68 +3.4 % 4100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">WASTE MANAGEMENT 34.12 -3.32% 500<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">INTL PAPER CO 28.00 +3.02% 16210<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">CONSOL ENERGY 45.40 +2.95% 12927<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">KELLOGG CO 54.05 +2.8 % 998<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AETNA</span></span></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> INC 31.34 +2.75% 15207<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AFLAC INC 50.97 +2.7 % 34826<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">LSI CORP 6.22 -2.66% 104500<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MANITOWOC CO 14.02 +2.64% 15162<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">OFFICE DEPOT INC 7.04 +2.47% 9841<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MGIC INVT CORP 10.50 +2.44% 200<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FANNIE MAE 1.27 +2.42% 346063<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">MBIA INC 10.20 +2.41% 30447<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERICAN INTERNA 40.46 +2.4 % 112919<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">AMERICAN CAPITAL 6.14 +2.33% 5527<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">STARWOOD HOTELS 54.50 +2.31% 13515<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">FIRST HORIZON NA 13.76 -2.2 % 1024<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">SPRINT NEXTEL CO 4.35 +2.11% 770363<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EXPEDIA INC 23.99 +2.09% 361<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">HUNTINGTON</span></span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> BANC 6.87 +2.08% 78609<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">EXPRESS SCRIPT 99.64 -2.01% 21900<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Today’s Trivia: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Guess at the common name of these everyday items from the scientific name: acetylsalicylic acid…ascorbic acid…ethylene glycol…<b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Yesterday's Answer: </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">According to Wikipedia, Southwest (LUV) is the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> airline that carries the most passengers. <b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><b><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">Best Quotes:</span></span></b><a href="" name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a href="" name="OLE_LINK13"></a><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"> “At year-end, Bloomberg counted $8.2 trillion in federal loans, outlays, and guarantees in place. The news service used outside limits for the various programs that had limits (e.g., TAPR was counted at the maximum $700 billion) and the highest recorded dollar volume outstanding for lending programs that had no limits (e.g., loan at the discount window were computed at $111 billion, the largest sum extended). Though we don’t know the grand total at the moment of maximum federal exposure, it must have been well in excess of the $10 trillion, or close to 70% of 2008 GDP. The Treasury’s blanket guarantee of money-market mutual-fund assets alone encompassed nearly $4 trillion; the government removed that security blanket in September.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">The numbers are dream-like (or nightmarish, according to political taste) in their sheer size. Only 18 months after the Lehman failure and little more than a year after the start of the huge updraft in the stock and credit markets, one stares in disbelief. Did the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet realty balloon to $2.3 trillion from $850 billion? Did a sleep-deprived Hank Paulson really push aside Mr. Market to decide which leveraged financial institutions to save and which not? Did the taxpayers actually write blank checks to the insolvent GSEs (Fannie, broke?), and are those nationalized institutions not, to this day, accounted for in the federal budget or on the federal balance sheet? Amazingly, the answers are “yes,” over and over. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;">Still, the world turns. The feds bought controlling interests in Citigroup, GMAC, and AIG. They ran roughshod over the price mechanism and established conventions of corporate finance. They printed dollars by the boxcarful. And Mr. Market? The old man sweetly smiles. The Treasury continues to fund itself at low nominal interest rates, the measured rate of inflation is scarcely 2% and the stock and credit markets have enjoyed the rally of a lifetime. The Federal Reserve, which, to be charitable, was as surprised by the unfolding of the crisis as even the directors of Citigroup were, has emerged with expanded powers and with the same old chairman. If the lesson from the crisis is, “Not to worry, because the government is only a bugle call away,” one wonders what policies our central bankers, Treasury mandarins and politicians will try next time, and what interest rates (and exchange rates) they will have to pay to carry out those bright ideas.” <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #666666;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: #666666;">--Grant’s Interest Rate Observer</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00225735537445377337noreply@blogger.com0