Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Morning Note (Tyler)...

Futures are -40 bps lower this morning, despite solid earnings from YHOO last night and WFC & MS this morning.  It seems investors are taking profits rather than pressing their shorts at these levels, as the consolidation continues.  This may be a more bullish sign for equity markets in the longer term, as the selling seems more orderly than the “panic selling” we saw at every turn earlier this year.  Regardless, a small pullback would be healthy for the market and more so for the dollar (which lingers at its lows).  It seems emerging markets aren’t ready for the overwhelming amount of capital inflows into their countries just yet, as their exports are getting killed by the weakness in the U.S. dollar.  Brazil’s Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, announced a 2% tax on foreign inflows on stocks and bonds and stated “If we had left things as they were, we would have gotten to the point where Brazil would be importing everything and exporting nothing.  That means the end of Brazilian jobs."    Although quantitative easing is still in effect in the U.S., a snap-back in the dollar may be foreseeable for a healthier recovery in the world economy. 

Galleon just told its clients that it has decided to wind down their hedge funds. Mortgage applications continue to drift lower -13.7% vs -1.8% the previous week.  BA & KEY reported worse earnings. The WSJ reports that US Bancorp has acquired $16 Bln in assets from failed banks to take advantage of the financial turmoil in the banking sector.  Paul Volcker, who is heading up a bipartisan presidential tax-policy panel, is considering replacing the current tax system which taxes global income into one that only taxes profits generated in the US.  

EAT downgraded at Goldman...TX downgraded at Goldman... IFF upgraded at Barclays... SLW upgraded at BofA/Merrill... SYK upgraded at BofA/Merrill... QSII initiated with an Underperform at BofA/Merrill... EP downgraded at Citigroup... MTB upgraded at FBR Capital... BCS initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital... NRG downgraded at Jefferies... LXK upgraded at JP Morgan... PNR upgraded at KeyBanc... DVN downgraded at Morgan Stanley... NVS downgraded at Morgan Stanley... CLW initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer... BMI downgraded at Piper Jaffray... HOGS initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray...CYOU upgraded at Roth Capital... FCH downgraded at RW Baird... LHO downgraded at RW Baird... BEE downgraded at RW Baird... SHW upgraded at Stephens...

Asia & Europe lower.  USD flat.  Oil -100 bps.  Gold -70bps. 

Brightpoint News:  

Brightpoint PreMarket (yest close/premkt/% change/volume):

S&P 500 PreMarket (last/% change prior close/volume): 
SLM CORP                     8.9000              9.90      +11.24%           253274
ALLEGHENY TECH           37.9900             35.51    -6.53%              29113
SANDISK CORP              21.4800             22.60    +5.21%             950377
INTUITIVE SURGIC         267.4500           253.75  -5.12%              5353
YAHOO! INC                   17.1700             17.91    +4.31%             1665228
KEYCORP                       6.5400              6.26      -4.28%              680870
STRYKER CORP              45.2800             47.16    +4.15%             8056
NORTHERN TRUST         57.4500             55.35    -3.66%              1700
MORGAN STANLEY         32.5200             33.38    +2.64%             891838
PROGRESSIVE CORP       16.6900             16.27    -2.52%              500
HUDSON CITY BNCP        13.1200             13.44    +2.44%             2300
EL PASO CORP               11.1800             10.92    -2.33%              600
DEVON ENERGY CO         71.9900             70.42    -2.18%              4356
PNC FINANCIAL SE         44.8700             45.75    +1.96%             3530

Today’s Trivia:  Which country's name comes from the Arabic name Al-Maghreb, which means "farthest west"?

Yesterday's Answer:  The name of the smallest citrus fruit is “Kumquat” and comes to us from the Chinese language. 

Best Quotes: “Emerging Markets, off of Brazil's announcement of capital controls- we don’t think other EM's will follow suit tomorrow but risks could rise over time, other countries "at risk" of doing the same are Korea, India, Egypt, South Africa, Colombia.” –UBS Trader

“Earnings continue to be good, and the market continues to go lower.   We are seeing more positive headlines today (LLY for example).  One theory is that all shorts have already been squeezed out of the market.  Therefore reducing the upside beta, and we are left with profit taking.   I'm going to have to face the fact that the market has already moved 25% in the 3rd quarter, and we might not have that much upside left.  I'm still a buyer on dips, but taking profits might be a wiser course of action. “ – Sell-side trader who was extremely bullish just yesterday (what a difference a day makes….)

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