Friday, November 6, 2009

Morning Note...

Futures sold off to -50bps as of this writing following the worse-than-expected jobs data.  The official Change in Nonfarm Payrolls was -190k versus -175k expected.  The official Unemployment Rate will certainly generate negative headlines all weekend, coming in at 10.2% versus 9.9% expected.  This represents the highest unemployment level since April 1983.  The “Underemployment Rate” (add back those who have given up looking for jobs and those who are employed part-time but want full-time work) is being quoted at 17.5%.  Expected President Obama to immediately sign the bill that extends unemployment relief, extends the first-time homebuyer credit, and provides tax relief for businesses.  In corporate news, AIG is trading down 10% on earnings, SBUX is up 5% on earnings, FNM is lower on earnings, and BERN upgrades both GE and AMZN.  Additionally, C has filed a registration statement to IPO its Primerica unit.  Note that Gold has surged to another record high at roughly $1098/oz…

Expect interesting trading action today… given yesterday’s strength, this morning’s jobs data seems to have caught The Street by surprise.  Recognize that this is an oversimplification of an incredibly complex landscape, but the fact is that unemployment over 10% is a major psychological blow to many Americans.  Whether a lagging indicator or not, this has to affect the US consumer in some way.  Not sure where markets go from here, but early action indicates we may give back some of yesterday’s gain.  Looks like the guys on the NYSE floor are getting whiplash from putting on and taking off those Dow 10,000 hats over and over… Recall that the G20 meets this weekend in Scotland though, and chances are the rhetoric there will be USD negative.  As a result, USD weakness early next week is possible, which would probably boost equities.  Confused yet?  Aren’t we all… From the risk management perspective, why would any institutional investors who have posted strong gains (and perhaps reached high water marks and thus are eligible to be paid again) continue to participate?  It’s all anecdotal, but this desk is hearing of more and more funds throwing in the towel, and moving funds to lower-beta and defensive names…

VRSN downgrade at EVA Securities.  VRSN beats by 1c, revs in-line.  JEFF initiates A with Buy.  Irish banks (AIB, IRE) are higher on banking law reform.  Cramer positive ALTH.  BERN ups GE, AMZN.  ATVI higher on earnings.  JEFF cuts CAH.  CROX lower on earnings.  CSTR lower on earnings.  CVI to price 7M secondary through DBAB.  EXLS beats by 8c.  GSI beats by 12c.  HANS -8% on earnings miss.  JDSU higher on earnings.  M upped at JPHQ.  NILE beats by 1c.  NVDA beats by 9c.  PMI higher on earnings.  JEFF cuts RMD on earnings.  RST -8% on earnings.  SD reports in-line.  SUP misses by 34c.  SWKS beats by 2c.  WG upgrade at KEYB.  WGL rated Conviction Sell at GSCO.  ARO multiple downgrades.  BCAP ups CNQ, TX.  CITI ups EQY.  CSFB ups MTH, O.  GSCO ups TRV, XL.  HSBC ups NYX, WTR.  JEFF ups ANSS, INAP, OCNW.  JPHQ ups TASR.  BARD ups GCO.  GSCO cuts PTP, RNR.  JEFF cuts CLR, KWK, ORA, RST, VNR, WTI. 

Asia higher overnight.  Europe roughly 75bps lower on average.  USD +10bps.  Gold +30bps.  Oil -250bps.  Bond prices are higher, yields are lower. 

Brightpoint News: 

Brightpoint PreMarket (yest close/premkt/% change/volume):

S&P 500 PreMarket (last/% change prior close/volume): 
FANNIE MAE                  .99        -11.61%            1758678
AMERICAN INTERNA       35.35    -10.01%            2463475
FREDDIE MAC                1.13      -9.6 %              575134
VERISIGN INC                22.50    -6.25%              2050
NVIDIA CORP                 12.95    +5.54%             447064
TENET HEALTHCARE       5.00      -4.4 %              4400
SUNOCO INC                  29.88    -3.98%              4829
JDS UNIPHASE               6.31      +3.95%             1900
PULTE HOMES INC          9.28      -3.93%              7385
STARBUCKS CORP          20.45    +3.81%             158119
CONSOL ENERGY            44.00    -3.8 %              300
ALLSTATE CORP            27.99    -3.65%              1200
DYNEGY INC-A                1.98      -3.41%              27500
MCKESSON CORP           59.92    -3.31%              500
CIGNA CORP                  29.44    -3.29%              100
CIENA CORP                  11.76    -3.21%              1636
MANITOWOC CO            10.41    -3.16%              7937
BOSTON SCIENTIFC       7.80      -3.11%              5907
CBS CORP-B                  12.40    -3.05%              51562
GENWORTH FINANCI      10.34    -3.0 %              91378

Today’s Trivia:  Here’s a test of old school American diner slang… If I were to order “Two eggs…wreck ‘em, add shingles with a shimmy, plus moo juice and a squeeze, add a cup of joe, and put it all on wheels, and hey…do you have any lumber?” what the heck would I be getting?

Yesterday's Answer:  The 40th is the Ruby Anniversary and the 50th is the Gold Anniversary.  It’s worth mentioning that the 3rd Anniversary is Leather…how romantic!  And the 5th is Wood (insert your own joke here). 

Best Quotes: “For those who are telling you that the US Dollar has stabilized, please get them a movie clip of the Slow Moving Train Wreck that has become our currency chart since Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971. The US Dollar is trading down for the 4th week out of the last five. Since March, its down -16%. That's a crash.”  --ResearchEdge Note

No comments:

Post a Comment