Monday, November 16, 2009

Morning Note...

Futures are higher this morning as Japan’s Q3 GDP was better-than-expected, nations at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum pledge to maintain stimulus spending, and the USD is weaker.  Seems like déjà vu all over again as the APEC forum comments suppress the dollar and prop up equities, just as the G20 summit did one week ago… Gold continues to achieve record highs, and mining and commodity stocks are bid up globally.  In economic news, Advance Retail Sales came in better, at +1.4% versus +0.9% expected.  September sales, however, were revised significantly lower, to -2.3% from the -1.5% reading.  As a result, this morning’s better-than-expected number is met with a tepid response.  Further, the Empire Manufacturing reading was worse-than-expected, at 23.51 versus 30.  While readings above zero generally indicate expansion in manufacturing, futures are slightly off their highs following this release.  In corporate news, LOW is slightly lower after reporting in-line.  TKA GY, Germany’s largest steelmaker, is up after announcing the sale of its US scaffolding business.  CSCO announces they will raise their bid for Tandberg ASA, the world’s second largest maker of video-conferencing equipment.  European car sales jumped 11% in October. 

Bernanke speaks at noon today, and his comments will be closely studied for further clarity on the Fed’s promise of “exceptionally low rates for an extended period of time.”   Also, will he mention the dollar, and in what capacity?  Business Inventories are due at 10am today, and the S&P500 technical level of 1100 will be closely monitored as well.  Evidence is mounting to support the claim that many funds are locking in gains and sitting idly into year-end.  Note that last week marked the lightest volume week of the year.  Expect to see more of the same, as funds lock in stellar 2009 performance and take risky bets off the table.  Blue chips, consumer staples, and other defensive plays will probably enjoy increased returns into December, as investors rotate into “safe haven” names. 

AKS added to JPHQ focus list.  AMSC upped at RAJA.  GSCO ups COH.  DELL resumed buy at GSCO.  HIT lower on capital raise.  MSCO ups ITW.  GSCO ups JWN, cuts JCP, TIBX.  CSFB ups S.  JPHQ adds X to focus list.  Barron’s positive on XOM.  YGE upped at Janney, cut at HSBC.  WSJ negative on NILE.  JPM may buy balance of Casenove it does not already own. 

Asia up overnight.  Europe up 1% on average.  Bonds tick higher and yields are this lower.  USD -45bps.  Oil +65bps.  Gold +115bps.

Brightpoint News

Brightpoint PreMarket (yest close/premkt/% change/volume):

S&P 500 PreMarket (last/% change prior close/volume): 
SPRINT NEXTEL CO        3.36      +8.39%             2768270
APOLLO GROUP-A           57.01    +5.85%             13103
LIZ CLAIBORNE               5.40      +4.85%             2250
CA INC                          23.01    +4.12%             200
TITANIUM METALS         9.70      +4.08%             6700
POLO RALPH LAURE        84.06    +3.98%             200
NEW YORK TIMES-A       9.29      +3.80%             100
CITIGROUP INC              4.20      +3.7 %              22590639
MGIC INVT CORP            4.54      +3.65%             200
BRISTOL-MYER SQB       24.00    +3.54%             116529
AK STEEL HLDG              18.00    +3.51%             31131
MASSEY ENERGY CO       37.28    +3.47%             1179
US STEEL CORP             40.83    +3.39%             45625
DEVON ENERGY CO         70.00    +3.26%             13806
COACH INC                    36.63    +3.01%             10503

Today’s Trivia:  The CDC released data that showed there was a higher percentage of US adult smokers in 2008 versus 2007.  So what percent of Americans smoke?

Yesterday's Answer:  It has been estimated that roughly 20M people are affected by “fear of Friday the 13th” (paraskevidekatriaphobia) and as a result, as much at $800M is lost in business on such days…

Best Quotes: “Good Morning - Asia up, the dollar down.  Commodities up, the dollar down.  The S&P up, the dollar down.   I guess no one is afraid that Bernanke is going to say anything today to rally the greenback.  Chairman Bernanke’s take on the economic outlook is expected to be delivered today at 12:15pm.   There is also a heavy slate of economic data to be released this week.   Starting today with Retail sales, Empire Manufacturing and Business Inventories.   Markets still feel like the upside hurts the most people.  I thought the article in the WSJ on Money Market Funds taking on more risk was a compelling signal.   The risk appetite, or greed as one guy puts it, is gaining momentum.”  --BofAMLCO trading

“Leaders of the 21-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum said in a statement yesterday the recovery isn’t on a “solid footing” yet and pledged to maintain stimulus measures until there is “durable” growth.”  --BBERG news

No comments:

Post a Comment