Monday, November 23, 2009

Morning Note...

Futures +1% this morning on USD weakness (-70bps as Fed Governor Bullard made dovish rate comments yesterday, Fed Governor Evans said rates will stay near zero until “late 2010, perhaps later in terms of 2011” and the IMF’s Strauss-Kahn said its better to exit stimulus later than earlier…) and global strength in equity markets.  Hong Kong (+140bps), Shanghai (+92bps), and Australia (+67bps) were up overnight (Japan holiday).  Europe is up roughly 1.5% across the board.  Gold achieves another record high at $1167.88/oz.  Existing Home Sales data due at 10am today.  Treasury auctions this week:  $44B in 2-year notes (today), $42B in 5-years (Tuesday), and $32B in 7-years (Wednesday).  In Washington, the Health Care Bill won passage from Committee into the full Congress, and will be debated in the weeks ahead.  In corporate news, LDK is higher on earnings, TECD is higher on earnings, HSY is pushing to launch a $17B bid for CBRY LN (which would trump the KFT bid), and TSN is higher on earnings.  HPQ reports after the bell (recall they already pre-announced).  ADI earnings after the bell. 

Expect light volumes this holiday-shortened week.  However, there will be some important economic data on the tape.  Tomorrow we’ll see the Q3 GDP revision, which is expected to 2.7% vs. the 3.5% first-look.  FOMC minutes are to be released at 2pm tomorrow and will be closely read for commentary on economic forecasts and inflation expectations.  Wednesday we’ll get Durable Goods orders, Personal Income and Consumption data for October, and New Home Sales.   Crude is higher today on a weak dollar and Iranian military exercises over the weekend. 

ANN upgrade at TWPT.  Barron’s positive BBT.  MOKE cuts CIEN.  Barron’s positive DISCA.  JEF, NITE cut at GSCO.  CSFB ups CHA, SLB.  MSCO ups DE ahead of earnings, ups AXP.  CITI ups DHI.  FBRC ups NAL.  GSCO ups EVR, MKTX, NDAQ, NIHD.  JPHQ ups CI, SJM, WLP.  BofAMLCO cuts TCLP.  JPHQ cuts HIBB.  MSCO cuts WES.  JEFF ups SBUX. 

Brightpoint News

Brightpoint PreMarket (yest close/premkt/% change/volume):

S&P 500 PreMarket (last/% change prior close/volume): 
CIENA CORP                  12.35    -6.23%              280143
ZIONS BANCORP            13.25    +5.58%             61500
OFFICE DEPOT INC         6.62      +4.09%             3600
DEERE & CO                  52.75    +3.78%             32319
ITT CORP                      52.72    +3.7 %              1200
EL PASO CORP               9.90      +3.56%             3583
AK STEEL HLDG              19.35    +3.53%             15840
CIGNA CORP                  31.05    +3.4 %              4500
MBIA INC                       3.60      +3.15%             9000
MANITOWOC CO            10.88    +3.03%             1900

Today’s Trivia:  What is the origin of the phrase “cut & run?”

Yesterday's Answer:  The kilogram standard is kept in a vault in Paris, France.  (side note:  scientists have been puzzled by the mass of the standard kilogram having shrunk about 30 millionths of a gram since it was made…)

Best Quotes: “For the first time since the equity rally began in March, the biggest U.S. stocks are beating the smallest as the dollar’s descent sends investors to companies with the most business in international markets. The Dow average of companies with $111.4 billion in median market value rose 6.2 percent this quarter, compared with the 2.6 percent loss by the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, whose members are worth $572.3 million on average. The Dow had trailed by 26 percentage points following the stock market’s low on March 9.”  --BBERG news

“On this day (-1....which would be yesterday of course) in 1963, the President of the United States, John Kennedy, was fatally shot while riding in a motorcade in Dallas,Texas. His assassin (as you may have heard) was Lee Harvey Oswald who fired from the Texas Schoolbook Depository. But...of know all that! The event has been the subject of several movies, at least three national investigations, countless TV specials, a few hundred books, a million magazine articles and several theories. Having been exposed to all this, you are no doubt aware of all the trivia and oddities. There's the Kennedy/Lincoln oddity. Jack Kennedy's personal secretary was named Lincoln...just as Abe Lincoln's secretary was named Kennedy. Both secretaries had pleaded with their bosses not to go to the place where they were shot. Both Presidents were succeeded by guys named Johnson. Both Johnson's were Southerners and former Senators. Both Johnson's were born 100 years apart. Kennedy and Lincoln were elected 100 years apart. John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald were born 100 years apart. Both Kennedy and Lincoln were assassinated on a Friday while sitting next to their wives. Booth shot Lincoln in a theater and tried to hide in a warehouse. Oswald was in a warehouse when he shot
Kennedy, he then tried to hide in a theater. recall all that. And, if you recall all that, you probably recall that it had been raining in Dallas earlier that morning. That, fearing a bad hair day, Jackie Kennedy suggested putting the bubble top on the limo. That, when the sun came out, the Secret Service decided to skip the bubble top. So, then you also recall the reports that Oswald was considering dropping his plans the night before, but a buzz-off from the wife sent him back to his plot. Which means you certainly recall that the initial reports indicated that both the President and Vice President had been killed. And when they brought that report to Speaker John McCormack (still lunching in the House Dining Room), he froze at the thought that at age 71 he was suddenly the President of the U.S. He froze so literally that he was unable even to stand up and only recovered when he was told LBJ was still alive. And, if you know all about the weird possibilities of presidential succession, you probably know the part those possibilities played in making Nelson Rockefeller vice president.....and making Gerald Ford the answer to the trivia question - who served as President and Vice President of the U.S. without ever being elected to either office.”  --Art Cashin’s morning note

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