Thursday, January 7, 2010

Morning Note (Tyler)...

Futures are slightly lower this morning (-20bps) on lower overseas markets.  There is underperformance in commodities as China says they will move to curb lending.  What really spooked overseas markets was China selling 3 month bills- a signal that liquidity is tightening.  Japan’s new finance minister also said he would welcome a weaker currency causing the USD to rally (+ 50 bps).  So far in retail comp sales this morning, 8 companies have raised guidance while only one has taken guidance down.  As bullish sentiment increases on the retail front, more chatter is circling on a potential pullback in the market.  More traders are bearish while the AAII bull index and the VIX lingering around 19 gets more limelight.   Put buying in the macro space continued as well with some large prints across the board including a buyer of the IWM Feb 60 puts (100K) and a buyer of the SPY Feb 105 puts (45K).

Initial Jobless claims came in at 434k vs. 439k expected which was relatively in-line.  Continuing claims came in a little better than expected at 4,802k vs. 4,975k expected.  The market hasn’t moved on the news and it seemed to be a non-event.  Eyes are more concentrated on the Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate released tomorrow morning.  Whispers are to the upside of flat estimates.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch ups CB, MMC & THC, Barclays Capital ups HS & HUM, Credit Suisse ups BAC, Deutsche Bank ups CRL, MCI & PKI, Janney ups HCBK, JPMorgan ups DOV & SPW RW Baird ups SNCR, UNF, Bank of America Merrill Lynch cuts CAN, NATL, PTP, SIGI, SKH & TSRA, Citi cuts AA, Credit Suisse cuts NTES, Deutsche Bank cuts ABC, LIFE & PPDI Goldman Sachs cuts RAI, Jefferies cuts INFY, JPMorgan cuts MMM, RAD, ROP, UBS cuts ACL

Asia lower.  Europe lower.  Oil -32 bps.  Gold -30 bps.

Brightpoint News:

Brightpoint PreMarket (yest close/premkt/% change/volume):

S&P 500 PreMarket (last/% change prior close/volume): 
GAMESTOP CORP-A        24.0300 20.45    -14.9 %
SEARS HOLDINGS           88.8700 101.80  +14.55%
BED BATH &BEYOND       39.2300 42.64    +8.69%
LENNAR CORP-CL A        13.7000 14.70    +7.3 %
AES CORP                     13.3900 12.5000 -6.65%
TJX COS INC                  37.1600 39.15    +5.36%
CONSTELLATION-A         16.1300 15.30    -5.15%
J.C. PENNEY CO              27.6200 26.60    -3.69%
MACY'S INC                   17.1000 17.68    +3.39%
CHUBB CORP                  14.3600 14.83    +3.27%
PULTE HOMES INC          10.3700 10.70    +3.18%
LTD BRANDS INC            19.0700 19.67    +3.15%
ABERCROMBIE & FI        36.2100 35.11    -3.04%
DR HORTON INC             11.6600 11.98    +2.74%
TENET HEALTHCARE       5.9000  6.05      +2.54%
NORDSTROM INC           37.4300 38.35    +2.46%

Today’s Trivia:  In which African city and country do the White Nile and Blue Nile converge?

Yesterday's Answer:  The White Horse Tavern in Newport, RI was established in 1673 and the oldest bar in the country.

Best Quotes: “I really didn't like seeing the underperformance of the large cap tech names yesterday. It seemed like a lot of investors were putting on big growth bets last month, and I have to expect the market to take a breather and/or correct if the momentum of the tech sector stalls… The feeling in the room is that there is more downside risk for the S&P going into the Nonfarm Payrolls number on Friday. Our economists are forecasting a loss of 25k jobs with consensus around flat. Personally, I think that even if you get a better number (something positive), that will bring rate fears more prominently into play and any pop in the market will be capped… Financials have been very strong performers so far this year and large caps continue to outperform regionals. Keep an eye on BAC - it was upgraded away this morning. 32 analysts on the street cover the name with 25 buys and 7 holds. The stock is up about 9% this year. It feels to me like it's getting to be a bit of a crowded trade and there isn't much more upside to the name until we see earnings later this month.” – Goldman Trader

“So there’s a "push (US)-pull (China)" scenario... Those two forces are the opposite of one another... China tightens and the US adds more or maintains stimulus?  Who wins that tug of war? And ultimately, how damaging could that divergence in policy be to the US long-term?  Interesting from a big picture sense...” –A Wall Street Veteran

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