Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Morning Note...

Futures up this morning on the back of yesterday’s rally.  Further, GM reported good numbers and the core PCE deflator was up on 0.1% for June.  As the Fed’s primary measure of inflation risk, the core PCE deflator number is very bullish, representing the 4th straight monthly increase of only 0.1%.  

Recent TXU lender headlines have re-raised credit concerns, but the arb market seems to be taking it in stride.  

10 year yields 4.81%.  Oil remains above $77.  

Announced Deals:  MRO acq WTO CN (US$6.2B)

Rockbay News: TXU shareholder lawsuits settled but 8:27am CNN article claims some lenders may be considering pulling out of the deal, FL hires LEHM for strategic alternatives, UFS announces reduction of paper making capacity – closes 4 operations, WMB target raised to $40 @ SBSH, CA FP has not formally bid for Turkey’s Migros but has interest, FDG-U CN earnings, DCX GY target raised at ABNA, LEHM positive on SCI on recent pullback, HAR cut to hold at CITI, HC earnings – trading up slightly premkt, WSJ reports current PE credit concerns favor corporate buyers for the first time in years, GSCO remains positive on IFX despite CFO departure, DBAB positive on LDHB MK as SE Asia retail play, CSFB positive on SHLD, CNX to repurchase up to $10mm shares of CXG, AL earnings, WEN trading near $37 on Peltz comments, UBS neutral on WEN – sees Peltz letter as “gamesmanship,” PPS trading up slightly on earnings, DBAB reiterates buy on CVS Caremark,

Vito’s Shark Week Trivia:  What place averages the highest number of shark attacks annually?

Yesterday’s Answer:   Miss Jones is vertically challenged, a la Monat, and can not reach the top floor button in the elevator.  Thus she pushes the highest one she can, and walks the rest of the way up… or, if raining, she uses her umbrella to reach the higher numbers and if someone else is there they push the button for her.  

MONDAY, JULY 30, 2007

Morning Note...

Futures up slightly this morning on little news flow.  As one pundit explains: “the question remains just how much the credit crunch concerns undermined the previous bullish sentiment.  The answer is by no means clear.  More volatility to come…

Verizon reported in line, ADM reported better, and Humana missed. 

No economic reports today. Core PCE deflator data tomorrow.  July employment Friday. 

Oil remains above $77/barrel.  10-year note yields 4.78%.

Announced Deals: 

Rockbay News: Chicago Tribune reports CBRY LN US beverage unit bids will come in lower than expected, Cramer positive on AA and SHLD, Globe & Mail reports AA-BHP deal may fall through, 3045 TT earnings, CA FP interested in Migros Turk TAS – Turkish supermarket chain, As announced last week – Sonae SGPS SA to buy CA FP’s Portuguese unit, WSJ reports Liberty Global may bid for Virgin Media, TXU shareholder suits won’t block KKR/TPG deal, Warburg rejects shareholder vote on EYE bid for BOL, JPMC expects no surprises coming with Weds CBRY earnings – hopes for update on sale of beverage division, UBS positive on TGT on pullback, LEHM positive on 855 HK results, FL announces strategic initiatives

Vito’s Riddles:  Miss Jones lives on the top floor of an apartment building.  When she goes to work she takes the elevator all the way down.  When she gets back she takes the elevator halfway up and walks the rest of the way, unless it’s raining or there is someone else in the elevator with her.  What’s with this odd behavior?

Yesterday’s Answer:   1) What goes up and down but not down and up?  An umbrella.  2) What runs around your yard but never moves?  A fence.  3) What goes up and down but never moves?  Stairs.

FRIDAY, JULY 27, 2007

Morning Note...

From: "Ben Batory"
To: "!Rockbay"
Date: Fri, 27 Jul 2007 09:13:28 -0400
Subject: fri mkts

Futures mixed and creeping back as Europe rallies off its lows.  Credit fears continue, but chatter of an all-out credit crunch seems overdone.  While the markets are not in panic mode, continued weakness is certainly possible.  At least until the credit jitters resolve themselves.  In the short term, hard to gauge if we’ll see a Friday rally or continued selling into the weekend.  Both are possible but it’d be hard to imagine a real rally with legs at this point.  At gunpoint, I’d guess sideways to down heading into the two-day break…

Earnings news is decent this morning – Chevron and Medoc Health reported good numbers.  10-year yield down to 4.8%. 

Q2 GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate – slightly stronger than expected – and will hopefully give us a lift.  Consumer spending was only up 1.3% however.  

Announced Deals:  MDT buys KYPH for $71/share, Sonae acquires CA FP Portugal unit

Rockbay News: Spanish paper reports Rothmans of Canada may have interest in Altadis, SCC CN target raised at RBC, CEG beats numbers, CEN defends $36/share sale to Pershing Square, CIBC positive comments on RRI and ups target, DB initiates MNDI LN with hold,  WCHV upgrades WEN on valuation, RTR earnings announced, 2 large BOL shareholders to vote against Warburg deal, IFX trading up on earnings, CA FP sells Portuguese unit, CBRY LN extends timetable for sale of US unit, GCO to vote on FL deal Sept 17, China Water earnings, HRZ earnings, Greenlight reports 10% stake in WNG

Vito’s Riddles:  1) What goes up and down but not down and up?  2) What runs around your yard but never moves?  3) What goes up and down but never moves?

Yesterday’s Answer:   What was given to you, still belongs to you, and although you've never lent it to anybody, is used by all the people you know?  Your name.

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